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51. Changing Weather Patterns, Climate Change, and Civil War Dynamics: Institutions and Conflict in the Sahel

Author:
Buddhika Jayamaha, Jahara "Franky" Matisek, William Reno, and Molly Jahn
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
Changing weather patterns increasingly shape battlefield dynamics in civil wars. Civil wars have complex origins and once violence erupts, local, regional, and global drivers, including changing weather patterns, shape the processes of conflict.1 As one study published in Nature indicated, the “stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.” Others have shown that climate change undermines ‘human security’ and that warming temperatures lead to an increase in crime. Some contend that climate change research has overdramatized the causes of certain wars while downplaying important pre-war cleavages. Finally, some studies show the difficulty of drawing a direct causal link between climate change, statistically significant changes in weather patterns due to anthropogenic activity, and civil war on-set. Our field research provides further clarity and greater nuance on these debates and studies by investigating various processes and variables involved with local-level violence, environmental changes, and weather shifts. Additionally, there has been a change in the character of battlespaces, fragile food systems, and food (in)security, which highlights how changing weather patterns directly impact the formation of new battlespace dynamics and the processes of violence in the Sahel. Indeed, there is significant evidence that links temperature and rainfall shifts with decreases in political stability in the Sahel (see Figure 1). For the purposes of this article, we restrict our analysis to the central portion of the Sahel, specifically the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) area, which is bordered by Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria. Already, there is substantial evidence linking temperature and rainfall shifts with decreases in local and regional political stability across the Sahel (see Figure 1). While some research finds “limited support for viewing climate change as an important influence on armed conflict,” our field work and research into the LCB illustrates how weather is impacting it specifically regarding new dynamics of violence.
Topic:
Civil War, Climate Change, Conflict, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

52. Implications of Climate Change for Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Increased Conflict and Fragmentation

Author:
Carmel Davis
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
Abstract:
What are the implications of climate change for security in low-income countries? As global warming approaches and passes 1.5°C, climate change will reduce income, disrupt social relations, and fragment authority. I focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) because its large agricultural sector is sensitive to climate change and will likely see effects earlier than in other regions. The first section discusses climate change, particularly on the large agricultural sector in SSA. The next two sections analyze two channels by which climate change will affect SSA. First, a survey of quantitative analyses demonstrates a correlation between the level and growth of income and the outbreak of civil wars; climate change will likely decease income in the agricultural sector so the frequency of civil war outbreak will likely increase. Second, climate change will reduce the salience of then-current qualitative strategies of survival and increase the salience of new ones, which will likely increase social disruption and reduce government authority. The last sections discuss adaptation and conclude that a major effect of climate change will be fragmented authority and increased disorder in low-income areas.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Civil War, Climate Change, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa

53. Cohesive Institutions and Political Violence

Author:
Thomas Fetzer and Stephan Kyburz
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
Can institutionalized transfers of resource rents be a source of civil conflict? Are cohesive institutions better at managing conflicts over distribution? We exploit exogenous variation in revenue disbursements to local governments and use new data on local democratic institutions in Nigeria to answer these questions. There is a strong link between rents and conflict far away from the location of the resource. Conflict over distribution is highly organized, involving political militias, and concentrated in the extent to which local governments are non-cohesive. Democratically elected local governments significantly weaken the causal link between rents and political violence. Elections produce more cohesive institutions, and vastly limit the extent to which distributional conflict between groups breaks out following shocks to the rents. Throughout, we confirm these findings using individual level survey data.
Topic:
Civil Society, Natural Resources, Military Affairs, Conflict, Violence, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

54. Intersectionality of Conflict in Africa The African Union’s Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Division (CPEWD) Mechanism

Author:
Frederic Gateretse-Ngoga
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Over the years the African continent has made significant strides in ensuring its voice is heard on the global scene. Despite this progress, Africa is still not perceived as a credible business partner. Although Africa has experienced significant economic growth, it is still considered “jobless” growth. A “youth bulge” is also appearing across the continent, which can be both an asset and a ticking time bomb. Overall, Africa continues to witness diverse threats to its peace and security, ranging from communal, ethno-religious, and pastoralist conflicts to violent extremism, and most recently, the increasing impacts of climate change. Combined, these threats have claimed an enormous number of lives and properties, displaced millions, and destroyed sources of livelihoods all while stunting socio-economic progress. It is critical for the African Union (AU) and its member states to collectively address the root causes and to understand the multidimensionality of security in Africa to avoid further bloodshed. ​ Understanding what breeds instability is essential in preventing the outbreak of violence and conflict. Instability is often caused by four main factors: power contestation, lack of inclusivity, unequal distribution of resources, and impunity. If these root causes are not addressed in a timely manner, instability is inevitable. Over the years, several strategies have been employed at national, regional, and continental levels to address conflicts. We are perplexed by the dynamics of the existing threats, as well as the patterns of the emerging threats. Assessments reveal an increasing inter-relatedness of the existing and emerging threats and predict their escalation if they are not adequately addressed in a timely manner. ​ More often than not, the signs of potential violent conflicts exist, but the corresponding responses are relatively weak or late. This trend has compelled world leaders to advocate for prevention at the earliest stage given the enormous humanitarian, psychological, and socio-economic costs of violence. As such, the imperatives of matching early warning with early response to prevent and or mitigate violent conflicts cannot be overemphasized. However, these strategies should not be implemented separately or haphazardly, but in concerted and coordinated manners to ensure tangible impacts... ​
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and African Union

55. Dilemmas and Experiences of International Support for Inclusive Peacebuilding

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The issue of inclusive peacebuilding has moved up the international agenda in recent years. There is now unprecedented policy-level commitment among the international community to promote inclusion in conflict-affected contexts; growing evidence of the importance of inclusion for sustainable peace and development; emerging lessons on best approaches for promoting inclusion; and a recognition among international actors of the need to learn from past weaknesses in this area. This report examines the current policy context for providing international support to inclusive peacebuilding. It identifies how international actors can strengthen their efforts to promote inclusion by learning from previous experience and drawing on new knowledge and approaches. It goes on to look at how international actors have supported inclusion in three very different conflict-affected contexts, Afghanistan, Somalia and Nepal, and asks how international actors have engaged on issues of inclusion in these contexts, what factors shaped this engagement, and what the results have been.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Nepal, and Somalia

56. Under the gun: Resource conflicts and embattled traditional authorities in Central Mali

Author:
Anca-Elena Ursu
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In the Mopti region of Mali, the livelihoods of most people depend on agriculture and pastoralism. Here, a variety of socio-professional groups - such as herders, farmers and fishers - coexist amidst the great natural richness of the inner Delta of the river Niger. Over recent years, poor resource management and subsequent conflict over access to these resources has threatened the livelihoods of virtually every community in central Mali. Formal and traditional justice mechanisms have each often proven incapable of mediating conflicts effectively and bringing justice to the victims and disputants. Moreover, the increase in communal conflicts in central Mali has created a fertile breeding ground for radical, armed groups. These groups have become actively involved in the regulation of access to natural resources, as well as in the mediation of related conflicts, to help create local legitimacy for their rule. That these groups could exploit conflicts to consolidate their power demonstrates that fighting them will not be enough to stop destabilisation in the Mopti region. Only solutions that address the underlying drivers of instability will enable sustainable peace to emerge. This report explores the lack of governance as a structural driver of resource conflict in the region and identifies a mix of short- and long-term measures to increase the legitimacy of the Malian state.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Non State Actors, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

57. Africa and the Global Compact on Refugees: Inclusive Policy Responses to Forced Displacement

Author:
Amanda Coffie, Richard Alemdjrodo, Patience Adzande, and Jocelyn Perry
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
According to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) esti- mates, nearly sixty-six million people had been forced to leave their homes and migrate as a result of conflict, political violence, ethnic and religious tensions, and natural disasters as of 2016.1 These rather high estimates contributed to the UN’s 2016 launch of the New York Declaration for Migrants and Refugees to enshrine global commitments to the challenges posed by high levels of forced displace- ment, and develop concrete plans for their resolution. This policy briefing note addresses the African Union and African govern- ments, as well as African scholars and policymakers regarding Africa’s particular position within global displacement and migration trends. It provides recommen- dations in the lead-up to the adoption of the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) at a special summit in Morocco in December 2018.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Chad, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Democratic Republic of Congo

58. The Challenges of Reintegration in Post-Conflict Peacebuilding: The Case of Nigeria’s Niger Delta

Author:
Oluwatoyin Oluwaniyi
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War shifted the focus from international wars between states to internal wars with immense consequences for unarmed civilians, such as occurred in the African countries of Angola, Burundi, Central Afri- can Republic (CAR), Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Liberia, So- malia, and Sudan, to mention a few.1 The nature of these wars makes these countries susceptible to further wars. To avoid such conflict traps, peace- building measures such as disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have been introduced to pave the way for an easier transition from conflict to peace, by minimizing risks from ex-combatants as possible spoil- ers and, restoring hope and security to victims of conflict while developing their communities.2 Evidence from countries that have utilized DDR, such as Angola, DRC, So- malia, and Liberia, suggests that while disarmament and demobilization may be essential, reintegration remains the most critical component of post-conflict peace and security.3 Debate continues over the notion that while disarmament and demobilization entail short-term security opera- tions, they do not by themselves bring sustainable benefits; reintegration focuses on extensive long-term development efforts that are critical to avoiding the conflict trap and sustaining peace in the long run. Short-term security does not bring about sustainable benefits unless it is coordinated with long-term community development strategies. Reintegration address- es the economic and social transformation of both ex-combatants and the overall communities they are joining, yet the full implementation of this pro- cess is generally ignored in DDR programs in post-conflict countries. This paper focuses on the extent of implementation of the reintegration phase in the Niger Delta region’s post-conflict (usually called post-amnesty) period and its impact on peace, security, and development in the region. The Nigerian federal government embraced the post-amnesty DDR concept in June 2009 to set the pace for gradual resolution of the violence that had embroiled the region for almost a decade. During the execution of the disar- mament and demobilization phases, the Niger Delta region recorded initial progress in peace and security demonstrated by an increase in oil produc- tion from an estimated 700 barrels per day (bpd) to an estimated 2,500 bpd in early 2010. However, the implementation of the reintegration phase has raised several questions due to the region’s relapse into violence and crime. There is, therefore, a need to investigate the factors working against suc- cessful implementation of the reintegration process. A critical analysis of the process will enhance the understanding of schol- ars and policymakers alike on what constitutes sustainable reintegration and at the same time, how it may be achieved in post-conflict societies. The focus on reintegration is meant to facilitate a specific consideration of its importance as the point of intersection between short- and long-term peacebuilding processes.
Topic:
Conflict, Peace, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

59. Spotlight on Africa | The South Sudan Conflict – 2018 Khartoum Peace Agreement

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On 27 June 2018, South Sudan’s main belligerents inked a peace deal that aims to set the country on a path to normalcy from it over half decade of conflict. The deal was reached at the backdrop of a two-day talks between President Salva Kiir and ‘rebel leader’, Riek Machar, former Vice President of South Sudan. The Khartoum talks were mediated by President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan and President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda on behalf of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)2 . The announcement of the deal came both as a surprise and relief – surprise because only a week prior to this deal, the warring parties had stalemated a peace pact intended to resurrect an earlier peace deal signed in 2015. In fact the leading figures, both Kiir and Machar had summarily not only rejected that deal but also the notion of even working together, the deal came as a relief in certain quarters cognizance of the 30 June deadline set by the UN Security Council after which sanctions on South Sudan would be renewed.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Conflict, Peace, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

60. Spotlight on Africa | What Next for Libya?

Author:
Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
2017 could be described by Libyans and many in the international community as a year of political stagnation with no vital accomplishment in terms of the political impasse and deadlock in postGaddafi Libya (El-Gamaty, 2018), a scenario that has seen the establishment of rival governments and the proliferation of militias among certain factions embroiled in the Libyan conflict. A ray of hope has however appeared in the form of renewed efforts to get the country back to full functionality. It is in this vain that on 29 May, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted leaders of rival Libyan factions together with diplomats from over 20 countries (including UN Special Envoy for Libya Ghassan Salame, French Foreign Affairs Minister Le Drian, Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso) in Paris in attempt to broker a peace deal and a pathway to elections in Libya.
Topic:
Elections, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya