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1. "The Dead Became Uncountable": Mass Atrocities in Sudan

Author:
Danica Damplo
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
On April 15th, 2023, fighting broke out in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), headed by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and a powerful paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). The conflict has killed more than 13,000 people and displaced more than 7.3 million people.1 The RSF and its allied militias reignited a campaign of widespread, systematic, and ethnically-motivated violence in the region of Darfur, targeting non-Arab communities. Efforts by the United States (US) and others have failed to secure a durable ceasefire or to protect a new generation in Darfur from the risk of genocide. The conflict that began in April is a continuation of the cycles of violence that have persisted in Sudan for decades, including a period of mass atrocities in 2003-2005 in Darfur, for which former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was charged with genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC).2 The SAF and RSF had previously joined forces in 2019 to oust al-Bashir following widespread protests in which the Sudanese people called for transitional justice and a transition to democracy. However, in 2021, the SAF and RSF overthrew the transitional government that had replaced al-Bashir. In April 2023, disagreements between al-Burhan and Hemedti exploded into open warfare.3 While earlier conflicts had spared Sudan’s capital, since April civilians in Khartoum and nearby Omdurman have endured violent clashes, aerial bombardment, sexual violence, and a humanitarian crisis. The conflict spread, with the RSF seeking to control the Darfur region and branching out from the west, and the SAF based out of the city of Port Sudan in the east. The RSF is supplied by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the SAF is supported by Egypt.4 In June 2023, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum sounded the alarm about the dire risk of genocide in Darfur.5 That risk remains high today. None of the conditions referenced in this warning have improved since June, and the numbers of civilians killed or harmed has risen dramatically. Among the communities at greatest risk today are those who survived genocide twenty years ago and who have continued to suffer since. This brief will detail mass atrocities underway in Sudan, highlight present and future risks not only in Darfur but elsewhere, and offer policy options for an effective response.
Topic:
Civil War, Armed Conflict, Atrocity Prevention, Protection, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

2. An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda

Author:
Ashleigh Landau and Ashleigh Landau
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda explains the factors behind three high-risk scenarios, identifies potential triggering events that could lead to violence against civilians, and proposes recommendations for how to mitigate the risk. In studying genocide and mass atrocities, we have learned that they are never spontaneous. They are always preceded by a range of early warning signs. If these signs are detected, their causes can be addressed, preventing the potential for catastrophic progression. This report is one of the components of the Early Warning Project, which includes both quantitative and qualitative assessments of atrocity risk. It is the sixth in a series of deep-dive qualitative assessments designed to assist policymakers, NGOs, and members of civil society in understanding the atrocity dynamics particular to the country in question and recommending preventative actions.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

3. Preventing and MitigatingMass Atrocities in Northwest and Southwest Cameroon

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide released a brief in May 2023, “Preventing and Mitigating Mass Atrocities in Northwest and Southwest Cameroon: Identifying Policy Options.” This brief outlines policy options to prevent and mitigate mass atrocities in the Anglophone region of Cameroon, where continued conflict between armed Anglophone separatists and government security forces has resulted in over 6,000 people killed and over 600,000 people internally displaced since 2017. After years of grinding crisis, armed actors on both sides may have little incentive to shift towards peace and global powers have made insufficient and so far unsuccessful efforts to end the violence. The situation necessitates coordinated, sustained, and calibrated responses. Based on expert consultations, this brief calls on the Cameroonian government and armed separatist groups to immediately cease the targeting of civilians and for foreign governments and multilateral organizations to re-energize and support efforts for the conflict parties to reach a mediated agreement, among other recommendations, to prevent atrocities and protect civilians.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Atrocity Prevention, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

4. Gearing Up the Fight Against Impunity: Dedicated Investigative and Prosecutorial Capacities

Author:
Howard Varney and Katarzyna Zdunczky
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Holding perpetrators to account for the worst crimes known to humanity is one of the most important responsibilities of the community of nations in the 21st century. Notwithstanding the appalling nature of atrocity crimes, most perpetrators do not face justice. Specialized investigative and prosecutorial units, however, offer a ray of hope in this otherwise bleak justice landscape. Such units now operate in several countries around the world, including Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, and Germany. This report, which was prepared jointly by ICTJ and the Foundation for Human Rights emerges from efforts to persuade the South African government to create a dedicated capacity to investigate and prosecute apartheid-era crimes, which have been long neglected. The report considers ways of gearing up the fight against impunity for serious international crimes and crimes of the past. It compares countries that leave atrocity crimes to the general administration of justice and those that adopt a specialized or dedicated approach. Specialized prosecutorial and investigative capacities are entities that focus exclusively on a particular category of crimes. While specialized units vary in size, structure, staffing, and operations, innovations such as prosecution-led investigations and bringing multi-disciplinary skills under one roof, make them considerably more effective than a generalized approach. The report provides a high-level audit of specialized units in 23 countries. It considers different models of domestic dedicated investigative and prosecutorial approaches and analyses their track records. Eleven case studies contrast countries with specialized units and those without. The report examines certain features that characterize specialized units, including their structure, composition, operations, and relationships with civil society and other entities. It analyzes the main challenges faced by the units including political dynamics, accessing evidence, and victim support. The report includes an overview of recent efforts by various specialized units to deliver criminal accountability for serious crimes committed in Syria. It concludes with recommendations on how to make specialized units more effective.
Topic:
International Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Europe, Middle East, Argentina, South America, Balkans, North Africa, Syria, Tunisia, Peru, and South Sudan

5. Risk of Mass Atrocities in Cameroon

Author:
Kyra Fox and Andrea Gittleman
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Cameroon currently ranks number nine of countries at risk of mass killing in the Simon-Skjodt Center’s Statistical Risk Assessment.1 The situation has deteriorated significantly since 2017, when Cameroon ranked 36th. After Anglophone civilians launched protests in late 2016 alleging marginalization by the Francophone-majority government, state security forces responded violently, allegedly arresting, beating, and shooting demonstrators.2 Clashes ensued, with security forces reportedly killing over 20 people in a 12-day period in largely peaceful protests in September and October 2017.3 Shortly after, Anglophone separatists began fighting for independence for the territory they referred to as Southern Cameroons or Ambazonia. The crisis emerged from the long-standing political grievances of the Anglophone community. Yet today, fighting between the two sides makes it difficult to discern motives. Security forces are reportedly targeting Anglophone civilians accused of supporting separatists. It is unclear to what extent security forces are also targeting the Anglophone linguistic and cultural identity. Meanwhile, armed separatists claiming to represent the Anglophone population are reportedly targeting civilians they perceive as supporting the government. This policy brief provides an overview of the risks of mass atrocities in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions and provides recommendations to the Cameroonian government, armed separatist groups, and international actors to prevent atrocities and protect civilians.
Topic:
Non State Actors, State Violence, Risk, Atrocities, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

6. The Private Sector and Atrocity Prevention: Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire’s 2010-11 Electoral Crisis and the Role of the Business Community in Preventing Violence in 2020

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Côte d’Ivoire's economic stability is critical to West Africa's development and inextricably tied to the global economy. Past periods of conflict, including the civil war from 2002-07 and the 2010-11 electoral crisis, resulted in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars lost throughout the country and region. Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election is less than a year away, and though atrocity crimes are not currently taking place, early warning signs of violence are already visible in a country that has never experienced a non-violent transfer of power. These signs warrant immediate attention, not only from Côte d’Ivoire’s political leadership and the international community, but also from business leaders. While the Ivorian government holds the keys to stability and peace throughout the electoral process, members of the business community—both Ivorian companies and international companies with economic interests in Côte d’Ivoire—can be critical allies in preventing violence in 2020. Business leaders should signal to the political parties that sacrificing the economy and civilian lives for political gain will not be accepted.
Topic:
Elections, Business, Violence, Private Sector, Instability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

7. Strategic Peacebuilding: The Role of Civilians and Civil Society in Preventing Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Nyathon H. Mai
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Conflict in South Sudan during the past seven years has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of South Sudanese civilians and the displacement of millions more. Large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations has occurred throughout South Sudan as a result of national-scale disputes, locallevel conflicts, and a combination of the two. This paper examines civilian-led action in three cases: (1) the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) leadership crisis in 2013, (2) a military standoff between President Salva Kiir and former Chief of General Staffs Paul Malong in 2017, and (3) conflicts between local security forces in Wau from 2016 to 2017. Despite the severity of the violence, civilian communities and civil society organizations in South Sudan have used a range of strategies—including early warning, public advocacy, and mediation—to prevent mass atrocities and mitigate their escalation. These actors sometimes blurred the lines between civilian and fighter, as in the case of self-protection groups in the northwestern Wau region. Legal restrictions and the threat of harassment by South Sudanese security forces also placed significant constraints on the ability of both national-level and local-level civil society organizations to act against potential and ongoing violence. In some circumstances, civilian-led efforts successfully resolved conflicts and constrained violence; in others, violence persisted despite civilian actions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Conflict, Civilians, Atrocities, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

8. Building Relationships, Building Peace: The Role of Civilians and Civil Society in Preventing Mass Atrocities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide and Congo Research Group
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
Cycles of conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have led to fluctuating levels of largescale, systematic violence against civilians. Two regions, the Grand Nord area of North Kivu province and the northeastern Ituri province, have featured both some of the worst violence and exceptional lulls in fighting. The roles of civil society actors in those two cases have varied—from encouraging armed-group mobilization to leading region-wide mediation efforts. Our analysis of civilian-led efforts in those two cases demonstrates that the boundaries of civil society in the DRC are fluid and context specific. In Grand Nord and Ituri, Congolese groups that typically fall outside modern liberal definitions of civil society that emphasize non-partisanship played important roles in mobilizing civilian communities, representing their interests to political leaders, and adopting strategies to prevent and mitigate mass atrocities. Those groups included members of the business community, customary elites, the Catholic Church, and nongovernmental organizations. We conclude that civil society actors had the most effect where they had close, personal relations with belligerents and where they had a deep-vested interest in stability. In Grand Nord, local Catholic Church leaders used their close relationships with armed groups to broker multiple peace agreements. Members of the business community in Grand Nord initially supported rebel groups such as the Congolese Rally for Democracy/Kisangani–Mouvement de libération (RCD/K-ML)—because the rebel groups provided tax relief and commercial financing to enhance their legitimacy. That relationship, however, meant that business leaders were also able to pressure rebel groups to participate in peace processes when conflict began to interfere with the business community’s financial interests. In Ituri, similar incentives led cattle ranchers and traders to play a similar role.
Topic:
Civil Society, Conflict, Civilians, Atrocities, Peacebuilding, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

9. Election Uncertainty: Preventing Atrocity Crimes in Côte d'Ivoire

Author:
Arsène Brice Bado and Mollie Zapata
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
As Côte d'Ivoire's 2020 presidential elections near, he country is at a crossroads: It can continue an era of relative peace or revert to the type of ethnic-delineated violence that has marred its past. Every political transition in the country's history has resulted in violence against civilians. Most recently, the crisis that erupted as political parties disputed presidential election results in 2010-11 led to systematic civilian targeting by both sides---that of current President Alassane Ouattara and former President Laurent Gbagbo---including the alleged commission of atrocity crimes by Gbagbo and his followers. Although atrocity crimes---large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations---are not yet taking place in Côte d'Ivoire, early warning signs are apparent. Immediate attention and early action by the Ivorian government and international partners are required to mitigate risks, prevent violence, and help save lives. To this end, at the end of this report we offer detailed recommendations to the government of Côte d'Ivoire, political party leaders, civil society, foreign governments and international organizations, and the media. Our analysis suggests that in the period before, during, and after the election, clashes between the main political parties may lead to violence and mass atrocity crimes. In past high-stakes elections, members of political parties have demonstrated the willingness to use violence. Risk is heightened during this period in part because of the zero-sum nature of Ivorian politics; politicians and their supporters perceive the 2020 elections to be "winner-take-all" for political and economic control of the country. In the past, this attitude has led political leaders to manipulate ethnic identity and economic grievances, dividing communities and inciting violence to solidify allegiances and generate political support. Today there is a risk of the resurgence of such exclusionary ideology.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Violence, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

10. Regions At Risk: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Mali

Author:
Ibrahim Yahya Ibrahim and Mollie Zapata
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
More than four years after the overthrow of jihadist rule in northern cities in 2013 and deployment of a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission, violence in northern Mali has continued, expanded to other regions, and, in some areas, escalated. Although mass atrocities—large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations—are not yet taking place in Mali, early warning signs are visible and warrant immediate attention by the Malian government and international partners. This report explains the factors behind three high-risk intercommunal conflicts, elaborates plausible scenarios that would lead to escalation in violence against civilians in the next 12 to 18 months, and proposes recommendations to mitigate the risks. We identify two conflicts that could devolve into mass atrocities: (1) the conflict between the Peul, Bambara, and Dogon ethnic groups in central Mali (Mopti and Ségou regions) and (2) the conflict between the Tolebe (Peul) and the Daousahaq (Tuareg) in Ménaka, near the Niger border. This report also assesses risk for escalation in the simmering conflict between the Ifoghas and Imghad Tuareg clans in the region of Kidal. We conclude that the Kidal conflict does not pose a plausible risk for mass atrocities over the next 12 to 18 months, but it does merit close monitoring.
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Violence, Civilians, Armed Conflict, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali