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131. Homegrown Jihadists and the Evolution of al-Qaeda

Author:
Barry Cooper
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Accurate assessments of the threat posed by al-Qaeda to Western interests and government have been hampered by imprecise language and an absence of historical memory. Arguably the organization is over thirty years old. Unquestionably the franchises and self-described affiliates of al-Qaeda bear little resemblance to the elite terrorist organization that attacked the United States on 11 September, 2001. This paper describes the evolution of al-Qaeda from being a source of assistance to mujahedeen fighting the Red Army in Afghanistan to the armed insurgents operating today in Africa and the Greater Middle East, on the one hand, and the homegrown, often self-recruited and largely incompetent “jihadists” who are more a nuisance to western police forces than they are a serious military threat. This change in the effectiveness and operational capability of al-Qaeda does not mean that it will disappear, not least of all because the members of that organization think of themselves as fighting an endless war. It does mean that we ought to have a realistic understanding of the reduced nature of the threat that al-Qaeda can make to our interests.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and Eurasia

132. Assessing the Impact of Development Cooperation in Northeast Afghanistan: Approaches and Methods

Author:
Jan Koehler, Christoph Zürcher, and Jan Böhnke
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
This report is a documentation of the methodological approach for an impact assessment of development intervention in conflict zones. We designed this approach for one specific region, Northeast Afghanistan, but we believe that it can easily be adapted to other regions and other contexts. This report is one result of an eight-year cooperative research project conducted by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), evaluation division, and Freie Universität Berlin’s Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700. The overall objectives of this project are, first, to develop a method for assessing the impact of development cooperation in conflict zones, and second, to apply this method in Northeast Afghanistan. The experiences from the first round of the emerging longitudinal impact assessment were taken into consideration in the present report. The basic question that we seek to address is whether development cooperation positively affects the stabilization of a conflict zone through a positive impact on general attitudes toward foreign intervention, on the legitimacy of the Afghan state, and on perceived security threats.
Topic:
Security, Development, International Cooperation, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

133. Implementing the Women, Peace, and Security Agenda in Afghanistan

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
Abstract:
The Women, Peace, and Security agenda of the United Nations Security Council is considered one of the landmark achievements in its thematic work. In its resolution 1325 (2000), the Council addressed for the first time the impact of armed conflict on women and recognized the under-valued and under-utilized contributions women make to conflict prevention and peace processes. The thematic work initiated by resolution 1325 has been reinforced and expanded by follow-up resolutions 1820 (2008), 1888 (2009), 1889 (2009), and 1960 (2010), which together form the Women, Peace and Security agenda of the Council. At the same time, integrating this agenda into the country-specific work of the Council has proven very challenging, despite the Security Council's continued political recognition that gender is indeed central to lasting and sustainable peace and security. The implementation of the WPS agenda on the ground is thus lagging far behind the ambitious conceptual framework that the Council has created over the past decade.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United Nations

134. World Grows More Peaceful - Except for the Middle East

Author:
Dana McKelvey
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Institute for Economics and Peace's annual Global Peace Index (GPI) reported an increase in world peace after two consecutive years of decline. The change was driven by slight reductions worldwide in terrorist acts, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, military sophistication, and aggregate number of heavy weapons per capita. As the sixth edition of the study, the 2012 GPI ranked the peacefulness of 158 nations, marking an increase from the 2011 ranking of 153 nations. As Professor Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University remarked at the GPI’s release, the study has great potential for “draw[ing] correlations” and encouraging collaboration between think tanks, universities, policymakers, and civil society in their study of global peace. The IEP will distribute the study to the World Bank, the OECD, the U.S. Congress, American University, and Club de Madrid, among other leading organizations. Professor Slaughter explained that researchers defined peacefulness not only as the absence of war or violence, but also as the absence of fear. The study addresses three major themes: the level of safety and security in society; the extent of domestic or international conflict; and the degree of militarization. The IEP researched these themes in the context of both “positive peace,” a “culture of peace” that values human rights, gender equality, democratic participation, and open communication, as well as “negative peace,” or the absence of violent conflict. In its study of “negative peace,” the GPI used twenty-three indicators, spanning topics from deaths in organized conflict, to political instability, to perceived criminality. The IEP’s Positive Peace Index (PPI), which addresses 108 countries, used twenty-one indicators categorized into eight “pillars of peace” that researchers identified as key to a peaceful society. The IEP emphasized the contrast between the PPI and other studies’ extensive focus on conflict and civil unrest. According to the IEP’s executive summary, the PPI becomes especially important during state-building, as in the recent cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. “The pillars of peace,” the summary states, “provide a foundation for thinking about how to establish the optimal environment for human wellbeing and potential to flourish.”
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East

135. Iran and the Security of Afghanistan after NATO's Pullout

Author:
Ali Omidi
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
Security is the main concern or raison d'être of any state. The Islamic republic of Iran and the west have had common geopolitical concerns, with some convergence in Afghanistan. The first security priority of the U.S. in particular and Europe in general after the September 11 events has been coping with terrorism in its heartland, i.e. Afghanistan. This paper, after a short review of Iran's historical relations with Afghanistan as well as its geopolitical importance for Tehran, examines Iran's main security concerns stemming from Afghanistan and the consequent Iranian narration of those threats in the post-9/11 era. The article argues that Iranian policy and even ideals for Afghanistan's long-term security is similar to the Iraqi model: outright withdrawal of foreign troops and national self-reliance on security issues. Therefore, Iran welcomes NATO's drawback from Afghanistan in 2014 and implicitly cooperates with the west in Afghanistan for viable and indigenous security.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Europe, and Iran

136. Contracting the Commanders: Transition and the Political Economy of Afghanistan's Private Security Industry

Author:
Matthieu Aikins
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
As Afghanistan approaches the 2014 deadline for assuming responsibility for its own security, and the international community becomes preoccupied with the challenge of reducing its vast entanglement with the country's politics, economy, and society, the critical question is whether NATO's transition will succeed in stabilizing Afghanistan—or whether it will result in further destabilization, as seen following the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, which eventually led to the collapse of the central government, large-scale civil war, and the country's development into a haven for international terrorism.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Crime, Islam, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

137. EU engagement in the Sahel: lessons from Somalia and AfPak

Author:
Damien Helly
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
On 19 November, the Council of the EU welcomed the Crisis Management Concept for a possible EU training mission for Mali, paving the way for the launch of a CSDP operation replicating the work done in Uganda with Somali troops. And many in Brussels have started to speak of EUTM Mali, as if EUTM and more generally the EU approach to the crisis in Somalia was a relevant model for action in Mali.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Uganda, Afghanistan, Africa, Europe, Somalia, Mali, and Mauritania

138. Strategic Support to Security Sector Reform in Afghanistan, 2001-2010

Author:
Christian Dennys and Tom Hamilton-Baillie
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
This paper argues that security sector reform (SSR) in Afghanistan suffers from a lack of strategic direction and political agreement. It focuses on disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR), and police and army reform in two case studies — Baghlan province and Nahr-I Sarraj district in Helmand province — in order to demonstrate the pitfalls of an SSR process driven by operational activities in the absence of an overarching strategy. The paper then examines the role of the Office of the National Security Council (ONSC) within the Afghan government in order to account for the lack of strategic direction in SSR before providing recommendations on how to avoid such problems in the future.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

139. Beyond Promises: The Durable Solution to the Afghan Refugee Problem

Author:
M. Ashraf Haidari
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
The saga of Afghan refugees began in late December 1979: Afghans were an impoverished people but content with their agrarian and traditional way of life. They hardly ever wished to migrate abroad for economic opportunities. But their normal lives abruptly ceased in the days following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as the country became a major victim of the Cold War. Soviet tanks rolled into Afghan villages indiscriminately killing innocent civilians, destroying their livelihoods, and driving most Afghans abroad in search of protection and human security. More Afghans fled violence, persecution and ethnic cleansing and genocide as a result of regional proxy conflicts in Afghanistan throughout 1990s. Many sought refuge in neighboring Pakistan and Iran.
Topic:
Security and Cold War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran

140. Inflection point: the Australian Defence Force after Afghanistan

Author:
Alan Dupont
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
In every era there are inflection points which require long - established institutions to re - evaluate their goals, strategy, structure and resource allocations to ensure their future health and relevance. As a major organ of state, the Australian Defence Force (ADF) is no exception.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific