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32. Providing Space for Positive Youth Engagement
- Author:
- Tim Luccaro
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's youth bulge, estimated at 21 million people under 25 years old, are a potential catalyst for shifting the current political and conflict dynamics in Afghanistan. Donor governments seeking positive change in Afghanistan can approach those under the age of 30 as the most likely source of such change. International financing and political capital may be strategically focused to develop youth as a positive political, economic and social force. It is important that the international community concentrate development funding over the next 10 years on youth-oriented programming— particularly as it relates to education, enterprise and agricultural development, and civic engagement. Young Afghan advocates need support from the international community to ensure that they have the requisite space and skills to meaningfully participate in future electoral processes and in local and national peace negotiations or reintegration programs.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Demographics, Development, Islam, Fragile/Failed State, and Youth Culture
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
33. Lessons from Afghanistan's History for the Current Transition and Beyond
- Author:
- William Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan's history provides important insights and lessons for the 2011 to 2014 transition and beyond, but differences with the past must be taken into account. As the 1933 to 1973 decades demonstrate, the country can be stable and effectively governed, but that stability was anchored in the two pillars of traditional local governance and a centralized though weak state, both of which were gravely damaged after 1978. Given the country's history of chronic succession problems and associated conflict, the next presidential election, if successful, would be the first peaceful transfer of leadership since 1933 and only the fourth since 1747. Expectations about the pace of progress must be modest and the dangers of overly ambitious reforms leading to violent reactions recognized. Regional countries could derail peace prospects, and planning around such spoilers may be needed. The difficulties of reaching a peaceful solution during a military withdrawal, and the adverse consequences when such efforts fail, were demonstrated during the period from 1986 to 1992. The period after the Soviet withdrawal shows the potential and limitations of Afghan security forces: holding onto Kabul and other cities is probably the most that can be hoped for in the current transition. The option of arming and paying militias is dangerous because it opens the door to instability and predatory behavior. The Afghan economy is in much better shape than it was during and after the Soviet period, and a deep economic contraction in coming years needs to be avoided. Afghanistan will depend heavily on outside financial support for many years, and such support must not be abruptly cut back or stopped. Effective national leadership is critical during transitions. It is important not to overlearn from history, for example, Afghanistan's problematic experience over the past half-century with political parties, which are essential to successful democratic systems.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Islam, War, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
34. Central Asia's Crisis of Governance
- Author:
- Philip Shishkin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Located in a strategically important neighborhood amid China, Russia, Afghanistan, and Iran, and sitting atop vast deposits of oil, gas, gold, and uranium, post-Soviet Central Asia is home to some 50 million people living in five countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan . For centuries, the region has drawn the attention of the world's superpowers as they seek leverage over their foes, access to natural resources, or a base from which to influence adjacent regions . For just as long, the societies of Central Asia have been beset by lackluster and often abusive rule, first by warring and insular feudal chiefs, then by colonial conquerors from Russia, and then by their Soviet successors .Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union 20 years ago, the five Central Asian republics have struggled to find viable governance models and to place their economies, long moored to Moscow, on stable footing.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Development, Human Rights, Islam, Governance, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, China, Iran, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
35. Political Economy and Conflict Dimensions of Afghanistan's Mineral Resources: A Preliminary Exploration
- Author:
- William Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan has sizable underground mineral resources, which have potential positive economic impacts but also possible downsides—the so-called “resource curse” often involving negative macroeconomic, developmental, fiscal, governance, political and conflict effects. The success of the broader political transition in coming years as well as regional geopolitical factors will have a major influence on prospects for Afghanistan's underground resources. For “mega-resources” such as the Aynak copper and Hajigak iron deposits, the Afghan government has conducted credible tendering to ensure that contracts with foreign companies are on favorable terms for Afghanistan. Good-practice approaches for mega-resources should continue and be further strengthened, but there will probably be further delays in exploitation, and realization of potential will take much time. Exploitation of other largish and medium-sized resources may involve joint ventures with politically-connected Afghan firms and deals with local strongmen, or sometimes criminal networks with linkages to corrupt officials and insurgents. Spreading patronage can reduce short-run conflict risks, but there are risks of corruption, and conflicts could arise over time. For these resources, priorities include transparent contracting and clarity about ownership of companies; setting basic financial parameters for different resources (e.g. royalty rates) to reduce the risk of overly favorable arrangements for extracting entities; and addressing criminal elements and associated corruption. For smaller, concentrated, high-value resources (notably gemstones), informal exploitation using crude techniques is typically combined with illicit export trade, and local strongmen are involved, which can mean periods of stability but also conflicts when bargains are reopened or new actors get involved. The way forward for these resources includes gradually improving and regularizing the framework; setting low royalty rates to encourage formalization of existing activities rather than leasing resources to outsiders; technical assistance to promote more effective extraction; and encouraging processing and value addition within Afghanistan. Finally, further analytical work is required to better understand the political economy and conflict ramifications of mining in Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
36. Peacebuilding Efforts of Women from Afghanistan and Iraq: Lessons in Transition
- Author:
- Kathleen Kuehnast, Hodei Sultan, Manal Omar, and Steven E. Steiner
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In transitioning countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq, women are increasingly finding their rights limited by state and religious leaders. Cultural and national stereotypes can be quickly overcome by the shared backgrounds, accomplishments, obstacles, and aspirations of women in transitioning countries. Women living in countries in transition value opportunities to network with women from other countries in similar situations. Women leaders from Afghanistan and Iraq have genuine concerns about the challenges facing women in the Arab Spring. Their valuable opinions are based on their own experiences of overcoming those challenges. It is essential that women work together and with men to further women's rights. Women must plan for a transition before it happens and have a strategy of work going into the transition process. Laws empowering and protecting women do not work if they are not enforced. International donors need a long-term view of women's programming, as much of the required work will take time. Donors should consider nonurban areas when working with women, and when possible nonelite partners, as these leaders understand the limitations of local conditions. It is possible for women's groups to find common ground with religious leaders.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Gender Issues, Islam, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
37. Revising COIN: The Stakeholder Centric Approach
- Author:
- Karsten Friis, Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud, and Harald Håvoll
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- With the apparent lack of progress and success in Afghanistan, counter- insurgency (COIN), both as a theory and practice, is falling out of favor within the political and military establishment in the US. This comes at a time when the US is redirecting its geopolitical focus away from global instability towards the Asia-Pacific and the 'New Great Power Game'.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Australia/Pacific
38. An Explosion of News: The State of Media in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Peter Cary
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- After the ouster of the Taliban from power by U.S.-led coalition troops in November 2001, the media scene in Afghanistan exploded. Under the Taliban, only one government radio station was allowed to operate, and there were no independent media. Ten years later, the Afghan media scene is a lively place, with more than 175 FM radio stations, 75 TV channels, four news agencies, and hundreds of publications including at least seven daily newspapers. Internet cafes can be found in major cities, and 61 percent of Afghans have mobile phones, which some use to listen to radio.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, and Taliban
39. China and Afghanistan: China's Interests, Stances, and Perspectives
- Author:
- Huasheng Zhao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- China holds clear, coherent, but relatively low-profile positions on Afghanistan. While staying largely with the mainstream of the international community on the issue of Afghanistan, China maintains an independent policy that reflects the peculiarities of Chinese interests, concerns, and priorities in Afghanistan. China has multiple interests in Afghanistan; however, domestic concerns about the security and stability of the largely Muslim region of Xinjiang overwhelm all others. China maintains normal and good relations with the Afghan government, takes active part in the country's economic rebuilding, and provides Afghanistan financial aid and other assistance. China supports the international community in its efforts in Afghanistan, but stays away from direct military involvement. China refrains from criticizing America's involvement in the war in Afghan- istan, but it doubts the war's efficacy, and China refuses to join the American Northern Distribu- tion Network (NDN) to Afghanistan. China dislikes the Taliban because of its close relations with the “East Turkistan” organization—a Uyghur separatist group—but China deals with the Taliban cautiously, trying to avoid direct conflict. China favors an Afghanistan governed by Afghans and hopes that the “Kabul process”—the transition to greater Afghan responsibility and ownership in both security and civilian areas—will have a successful end. At the same time, China also prepares for unexpected outcomes.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, China, and Asia
40. Mutual Accountability: Lessons and Prospects for Afghanistan Post-Tokyo
- Author:
- William Byrd
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- At the Tokyo conference on July 8, donors committed to provide massive civilian aid to Afghanistan and improve aid effectiveness, while the Afghan government committed to a number of governance and political benchmarks. The outcome at Tokyo exceeded expectations, but a review of Afghan and international experience suggests that implementing the Tokyo mutual accountability framework will be a major challenge. The multiplicity of donors could weaken coherence around targets and enforcing benchmarks, and undermine the accountability of the international community for overall funding levels. Uncertain political and security prospects raise doubts about the government's ability to meet its commitments, and political will for needed reforms understandably may decline as security transition proceeds and the next election cycle approaches. It is doubtful whether major political issues can be handled through an articulated mutual accountability framework with benchmarks and associated financial incentives. The civilian aid figure agreed upon at Tokyo ($16 billion over four years) is ambitious and exceeded expectations; if the international community falls short, this could be used to justify the Afghan government failing to achieve its benchmarks. Finally, given past experience there are doubts about how well the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB) process (mandated to oversee implementation), and the series of further high-level meetings agreed at Tokyo, will work.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Economics, Governance, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia