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422. Toward a Secure, Stable and Prosperous Afghanistan
- Author:
- Marc Grossman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- After a decade of effort and tremendous sacrifice by Americans, Afghans, allies and partners, we have made progress toward the goal of disrupting, dismantling, and defeating al-Qaeda. Osama bin Laden is dead. Al-Qaeda is weaker. As a result of this effort and sacrifice, we can now enter a new phase of our en¬gagement in Afghanistan defined by the plan set out at the NATO Lisbon Summit in November 2010. The Afghan government is systematically taking responsibility for Afghanistan's security; half of the Afghan population today lives in areas where the Afghan government has the lead responsibility for security. By the end of 2014, all of Afghanistan will have transitioned to Afghan security lead.
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Lisbon
423. The Haqqani Network: A Strategic Threat
- Author:
- Jeffrey Dressler
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- The Haqqani Network represents hh a strategic threat to the enduring stability of the Afghan state and U.S. national security interests in the region. The Haqqanis are currently Afghanistan's most capable and potent insurgent group, and they continue to maintain close operational and strategic ties with al-Qaeda and their affiliates. These ties will likely deepen in the future. Unlike the Quetta Shura Taliban in southern Afghanistan, the counterinsurgency campaign has not weakened the Haqqanis' military capabilities significantly. Few of the “surge” resources deployed to their strongholds in Eastern Afghanistan. The Haqqani Network has increased its operational reach and jihadist credentials over the past several years. The Haqqani Network has expanded its reach toward the Quetta Shura Taliban's historical strongholds in southern Afghanistan, the areas surrounding Kabul, as well as the Afghan north. The Haqqanis maintain considerable sanctuary and support nodes inside Pakistan's tribal areas. From their safehavens in North Waziristan and Kurram Agencies in Pakistan, the Haqqanis project men and materiel to resource their terrorist campaign in Afghanistan's southeastern provinces of Khost, Paktika and Paktia onwards to the provinces surrounding Kabul. The Haqqani Network is the primary proxy force backed by elements of Pakistan's security establishment. Pakistan's support for the Haqqani Network has increased, through both facilitating additional sanctuary and providing strategic and operational guidance. The Haqqanis serve Pakistan's interests by dominating key terrain along the border and beyond in Afghanistan's south and east, serving as a Pakistani-influenced “firewall” against national, northern, U.S. and Indian influence. The Haqqanis would also serve Pakistan's interests by being the primary influence in Afghanistan's Ghilzai Pashtun lands, as well as the tribal areas in North Waziristan, organizing these tribal areas in ways consistent with Pakistan's interests. The Haqqanis execute spectacular attacks in Kabul in order to generate a disproportionate psychological and propaganda effect. The Haqqanis have strengthened their presence in Logar and Wardak, surrounding the southern and western approaches to Kabul. They have also expanded into Kabul's eastern approachs in the provinces of Nangarhar, Lahgman, and Kapisa. The network will use these positions to increase their destabilizing attacks in Kabul. The Haqqani Network has increased their presence in Afghanistan's north, through their partnership with the al-Qaeda affiliated Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The Haqqani Network and IMU execute targeted assassinations of northern powerbrokers who are affiliated with the Jamiat-e Islami Party. These assassinations are meant to undermine the Jamiat party and the influence of minority powerbrokers, who are historical rivals to the Pashtuns and the Pakistani state. The Haqqanis are ideologically committed insurgents, and they are increasing their territorial reach. The group also has ties to al-Qaeda and its affiliates. The Haqqanis have never given any indication that breaking ties with al-Qaeda was either possible or in their interests. Consequently, the Haqqani Network is not reconcilable. They also do not fully follow the guidance of the Quetta Shura Taliban, because they maintain a separate power base and leadership structure. Coalition and Afghan forces must conduct a sustained, well-resourced offensive against the Haqqani Network inside of Afghanistan. This campaign would likely require at least two adequately-resourced fighting seasons. Consequently, it is imperative that the U.S. retains force levels at 68,000 troops after September 2012, rather than conducting a further drawdown. Without such a campaign, the Haqqani Network will be a dominant force inside of Afghanistan indefinitely, and the United States woulf fail to achieve its stated objective of preventing the return of al-Qaeda and affiliated groups to Afghanistan. Addressing the threat from the Haqqani Network inside of Afghanistan is necessary, even if further action should ultimately be taken to disrupt the organization in Miramshah. The ANSF are not equipped to deal with the threat from the Haqqani Network in their current state. The Afghan Security Forces lack the intelligence, enablers, and sophisticated command and control required to reclaim the enemy support zones south of Kabul. The Afghan units are also under-filled and wrongly positioned for this fight. American troops in a properly-resourced campaign can help reduce the threat from the Haqqani Network to a level that the Afghan Security Forces can handle. The United States must not abruptly shift the mission of its forces in Afghanistan from counter-insurgency to security force assistance. U.S. forces cannot curtail or cease offensive operations in the areas South of Kabul in Regional Command East in 2012. The United States and its Afghan partners must dismantle the Haqqani Network's strongholds in Khost, Paktika, and Paktia and contain the organization's expansion toward Kabul prior to a shift in mission. Failure to do so will present a strategic threat to U.S. national security interests in Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Terrorism, International Security, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States
424. Reconnaître l'absence et dire les responsabilités : le cas des civils tués par les forces armées américaines en Afghanistan et en Irak
- Author:
- Christophe Wasinski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Institution:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Abstract:
- Cet article pose la question du mode de reconnaissance des morts civiles causées par les forces armées américaines lors des guerres en Afghanistan et en Irak au cours des années 2000. Il part du constat que la mortalité civile causée par les opérations militaires n'est pas immédiatement accessible. La connaissance de cette mortalité dépend d'un travail d'énonciation qui l'exprime, la confirme, la qualifie, ou encore la justifie. Nous faisons ici l'hypothèse que, dans le cas des conflits en Afghanistan et en Irak, le mode de reconnaissance de la mortalité civile dépend des effets d'une sorte de « controverse » opposant deux régimes d'énonciation. Le premier est un régime qui nie et/ou minimise la mortalité des civils et met en évidence un comportement « responsable » dans la prise en charge de la problématique par les militaires. Le second régime, quant à lui, conteste le fait que les guerres d'Afghanistan et d'Irak sont menées de façon assez précautionneuse pour les civils.
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
425. Autour de l'Afghanistan contemporain
- Author:
- Delphine Deschaux-Beaume
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Institution:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Abstract:
- En matière de conflit afghan, l'actualité la plus récente vient renforcer le constat d'échec de la stratégie qui consistait à « gagner les coeurs et les esprits » en Afghanistan, et d'en faire un État viable et en sécurité . Depuis le conflit soviétoafghan, et plus encore depuis la guerre déclenchée en 2001, ce conflit alimente à ce titre une abondante littérature. Qu'il s'agisse d'ouvrages géopolitiques ou stratégiques , de témoignages engagés , ou encore d'ouvrages sociologiques visant à saisir le phénomène taliban et l'islamisation du « terrorisme afghan » , la littérature sur le contexte du conflit afghan est pléthorique. Dès lors, pourquoi s'attacher à deux ouvrages parus en 2011 traitant une fois de plus du « problème afghan » ? Les ouvrages de Michael Barry et de Pierre Micheletti sont intéressants à plusieurs titres, et notamment de par leur parti pris analytique . Dans les deux cas, l'enjeu n'est pas d'axer l'analyse sur la recrudescence de la violence armée exercée par de...
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
426. Inflection point: the Australian Defence Force after Afghanistan
- Author:
- Alan Dupont
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- In every era there are inflection points which require long - established institutions to re - evaluate their goals, strategy, structure and resource allocations to ensure their future health and relevance. As a major organ of state, the Australian Defence Force (ADF) is no exception.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific
427. Iran within the Political Dynamics of the Middle East
- Author:
- Farhad Atai
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
- Abstract:
- Developments in the Middle East in the past decades, and especially in the past few years, have drawn the world's attention to this region. Never since the break-up of the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the 20th century has the region been so volatile and explosive. While the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to have a deciding effect on the Middle East, other issues have appeared, further complicating the politics of the region. The stunning socio-political developments in the Arab world during the past year, which started in Tunisia and spread to Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Bahrain are still unfolding and will permanently change the Arab World. Where does Iran fit into the political dynamics of the Middle East in these turbulent times? This paper attempts to answer that question. After a review of the recent developments in the Arab world, it examines the Islamic Republic's position in the region in the light of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the breakup of the Soviet Union and subsequent developments in Central Asia, the U.S.-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The paper suggests that the changing geopolitics of the region has positioned Iran in a relatively stronger position vis-à-vis the Sunni-Shi'a debate. It further suggests that three decades after its Islamic Revolution, Iran has matured. This is especially true in the wake of the rising extremist tendencies and groups such as al-Qa'ida in the region. Once the shorter term issues are resolved, Iran can have a moderating influence on the dynamics of the region.
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Iran, Central Asia, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Bahrain
428. It Only Takes One to Tango
- Author:
- Moshe Behar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- Think of a prominent Arab-Jewish scholar who had published dozens of books about themes pertaining to the modern history of his native Middle East (for example Murad Farag or Avra-ham Elmaleh). Imagine further that al-though he did not have a command of Latin, English, French, or German, our heuristic Arab-Jewish author proceeded to write a book about the his-tory of Western European Jewry during the past fourteen centuries, titling it In Jesus' House: A History of Jews in Christian Lands. Would academic presses be likely to entertain publication of such a work? Would scholars of Western European Jewry be likely to view such a text favorably or as being authoritative? These were my first thoughts after reading Sir Martin Gilbert's staggeringly ambitious book, aiming to survey the history of Jews from Morocco to Afghanistan, notwithstanding his lack of Arabic, Persian, or Ottoman Turkish.
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Germany
429. U.S. Pres. Barack Obama, Address to the UN General Assembly, New York, 21 September 2011 (excerpts).
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- Much of President Obama's speech was taken up with surveying the year's progress with regard to ending conflicts and realizing democracy and human rights (e.g., Iraq, Afghanistan, South Sudan, the Arab Spring). His remarks on the Israel-Palestine conflict, reproduced below, were less optimistic, and contrasted with his UN General Assembly address of September 2010, which gave a nod to the Palestinian demand for a settlement moratorium with tentative support. In this year's address, the burden of responsibility seemed to lie squarely with the Palestinians, leading some critics to speak of a "final capitulation to the Israeli position." The text of Obama's speech was distributed by the White House press office.
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, New York, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, United Nations, and South Sudan
430. Letters from Abbottabad: Bin Ladin Sidelined?
- Author:
- Nelly Lahoud, Don Rassler, Stuart Caudill, Liam Collins, Gabriel Koehler-Derrick, and Muhammad al-`Ubaydi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- This report is a study of 17 declassified documents captured during the Abbottabad raid and released to the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC). They consist of electronic letters or draft letters, totaling 175 pages in the original Arabic and 197 pages in the English translation. The earliest is dated September 2006 and the latest April 2011. Some of the letters are incomplete and/or are missing their dates, and not all of the letters explicitly attribute their author(s) and/or indicate the addressee. In addition to Bin Ladin, the recognizable individuals who appear in the letters either as authors or as recipients are `Atiyyatullah and Abu Yahya al-Libi, both of whom are al-Qa`ida leaders; Adam Yahya Gadahn, the American al-Qa`ida spokesman and media advisor; Mukhtar Abu al-Zubayr, the leader of the Somali militant group Harakat al-Shabab al-Mujahidin; Abu Basir (Nasir al-Wuhayshi), the leader of the Yemen-based al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP); and Hakimullah Mahsud, the leader of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Given the small collection of documents released to the CTC, it is impossible to construct a coherent evolution of al-Qa`ida or its current state. “Letters from Abbottabad” is an initial exploration and contextualization of 17 documents that will be the grist for future academic debate and discussion.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan