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1141. Russia's Southern Regions: Threats and Opportunities

Author:
Robert Orttung
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Instability in Russia's southern regions poses a threat to the continuation of the country's overall political and economic reform, and to regional stability in Central Eurasia. These regions, which already possess Russia's most fragile local economics, face a variety of problems emanating from the weak and failing states to their immediate south. Most visibly, there is the threat of terrorism, an increasing flow of illegal narcotics from producers in Afghanistan, an influx of contraband goods that wipe out Russian jobs, and illegal immigration. With few resources and extensive corruption among key officials, Russia's southern regions are poorly equipped to deal with these problems. Developing mutually beneficial trade links between Russia's southern regions and its neighbors in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia can mitigate instability and economic stagnation in this region, help to rebuild regional economies, generate income, and better enable governments to provide security and basic human services to their people. The West can support these developments as well as help combat organized crime, target corruption, and improve border security.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Mongolia, and Asia

1142. The Shape of Postwar South Asia

Author:
Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
The low priority that the United States placed on South Asia, led to the creation of a Taliban ruled terrorist safe haven in Afghanistan. To prevent such disasters in the future, the US must end its neglect, play an active role in the region, and commit sufficient energy and resources. The US must devise and implement an effective, well-funded, long-term strategy aimed at encouraging cooperation and regional integration. The strategy should stress clearly enunciated issues. These include: nonproliferation, demilitarization, regionally oriented economic development, poverty reduction, preservation of the environment, settling the Kashmir dispute, ending communal politics, and vitalizing the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Kashmir

1143. Postwar Afghanistan – The Road From Here

Author:
Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
This is a short evaluation of the prospects for postwar reconstruction in Afghanistan. It will conclude with a number of policy recommendations regarding the possible role that the United States can play in the establishing of a viable Afghan state. It reflects my experience in the region and as an intelligence analyst and Foreign Service Officer.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

1144. The Case for U.S. Leadership in Rebuilding Afghanistan

Author:
Wali M. Osman
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
To further its strategic interests and national security, the United States has intervened in Afghanistan twice in less than two decades, first in the fight against the Soviets and then the Taliban. Now, as Afghans attempt to rebuild, American interests are at stake again. Before the Soviet takeover, Afghanistan had been moving slowly toward modernity, its development impeded by ethnic and tribal divisions kept in check by the monarchy's patronage system. Today, the country needs not only a new physical infrastructure but also institutions that will enable it to function as a modern economy, while politically accommodating its diverse and divided population. Democratization and economic development offer the best hope for stability, and specific steps can be taken to achieve these outcomes, but the country cannot move forward without increased security. Warlords contest the authority of the transitional government, which is itself critically divided. Beyond the issue of security, there is the urgent need for a more active commitment of U.S. resources and influence to the political and economic aspects of the reconstruction effort.
Topic:
International Cooperation and United Nations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban

1145. Managing Asia Pacific's Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia?

Author:
Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Middle East is Asia Pacific's largest energy supplier, satisfying a demand for oil that must keep pace with the region's continued economic growth. This dependence on the Middle East has caused Asia Pacific to join the United States and other Western nations in the hunt for alternative suppliers. Central Asia, located between the Middle East and Asia Pacific and already an oil and gas exporter, is an attractive possibility. With energy production projected to rise rapidly over the next decade, Central Asia is poised to become a major player in the world energy market. But the land-locked region's options for transporting oil and gas to Asia Pacific markets are limited and problematic. Passage via pipeline east through China presents construction challenges; south through Iran, or through India and Pakistan via Afghanistan, is fraught with political difficulties. Not until geopolitics become more favorable to the south-bound options, or technologies make the China route possible, will Asia Pacific be able to tap the energy resources of Central Asia.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

1146. International Terrorism and Europe

Author:
Thérèse Delpech
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The events of 11 September moved all Europeans, but were never understood for what they really were: the return of war to the most developed societies. Thus, the emotion quickly gave way to the belief that an isolated event had taken place, or at least one that would not be repeated on the same scale. The entry of the Americans and their Afghan allies into Kabul a month after the first air strikes reinforced this belief. Even if the military operations in Afghanistan were far from over then, the Europeans, more so than the Americans – who at that time still had to cope with a biological attack – began to lose their focus. The first reason for that short-lived emotion is that 11 September, even when perceived as an attack on the entire Western world, had not happened in Europe. There is also a widespread refusal in Europe, after the turbulent history of the previous century, to admit that European territory might again be vulnerable to serious threats. Lastly, European leaders were anxious not to frighten their populations or to strain relations with the Muslim minorities living in Europe.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, America, Europe, and Kabul

1147. The Afghan Transitional Administration: Prospects and Perils

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Emergency Loya Jirga, or grand national assembly, held from 10 to 21 June 2002 in Kabul was a small but critical step in Afghanistan's political development. It was an opportunity to accord national legitimacy to the peace process begun at Bonn in November 2001 but it produced mixed results. From a narrow perspective, it was a success: representatives from across Afghanistan came together to elect, or rather anoint, a head of state, and the major armed factions kept their hats in the political ring rather than resort to violence. Given the last three decades of war and turmoil, this is significant.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1148. Central Asia: Water and Conflict

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Competition for water is increasing in Central Asia at an alarming rate, adding tension to what is already an uneasy region. Agriculture is the mainstay of the region's economy, and thirsty crops such as cotton and rice require intensive irrigation. Water use has increased rapidly since the Central Asian states became independent in 1991 and is now at an unsustainable level. Irrigation systems have decayed so severely that half of all water never reaches crops, and several years of drought have cut available water by a fifth even as demand continues to soar. Efforts to rebuild Afghanistan will now put yet more strain on supplies.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, and Environment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1149. The Loya Jirga: One Small Step Forward?

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The immensity of the task of rebuilding Afghanistan into something resembling a coherent state cannot be over-estimated. Nearly three decades of political instability – including many years of savage warfare, the wholesale destruction of political and physical infrastructure and the inflammation of ethnic divisions – are layered on top of a nation that was among the poorest and weakest governed even in its "golden age" before King Zahir Shah was deposed in 1973. Afghanistan's transition back to a minimum level of political and economic stability will require many small but crucial steps to keep it on course.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

1150. Pakistan: The Dangers of Conventional Wisdom

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With the continuing military campaign in Afghanistan, the international community has fundamentally shifted its policies toward Pakistan. The government of President Pervez Musharraf has been repeatedly praised as a key ally in the war against terrorism, and the U.S. alone has indicated that it will offer Pakistan more than one billion dollars in assistance. This briefing explores some of the most important dynamics underpinning the international community's revised approach to Pakistan and suggests that much of the conventional wisdom relies on dangerously faulty assumptions with important implications for future policy and regional security.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and South Asia