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31. Making Every Kilometre Count: Prioritising Road Infrastructure Spending

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
There so many factors that influence road projects prioritisation. Considering the highly restrictive public resources at disposal and the huge cost requirements of road projects, cautious programme optimisation is essential. Projects must thus be prioritised according to their costs and net the benefit they are expected to provide. Our report presents an assessment of the relative importance of some road projects, most of them from the Link Zambia 8000 programme and the major trunk roads from Lusaka to major international destinations. In this brief we provide an alternative viewpoint project prioritisation based on transportation efficiency, accessibility and socio-economic factors. The result is a coherent projects evaluation framework that suggests the most feasible projects to invest our limited resources and thus making every kilometre count towards national development.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Governance, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

32. Bridging the PAYE gap

Author:
ZIPAR
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia’s tax revenue-to-GDP ratio dropped to a record low of 13% in the early 1990s from a peak of 30% in the 1970s. To address the problem, Government embarked on a wide range of tax reforms that included the formation of the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) in order to increase revenue collection through efficient tax administration. Despite these reforms, tax revenues have remained low, averaging only 17% of GDP. The low tax revenues can be partly attributed to tax evasion. The current legal and administrative measures to address this problem are inadequate. This is evidenced by the underperformance of taxes such as PAYE with a significant proportion remaining uncollected. The estimated PAYE tax gap as a percent of GDP is 6.7% or 40.3% of total tax revenues in 2010. Government should embark on comprehensive legal and administrative tax reforms in order to minimise the tax gap, thereby combating tax evasion.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

33. The Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class in Zambia

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The middle class is increasingly becoming a topical issue in Zambia. However, the lack of a definitive measure of the middle class in the country makes it difficult to have targeted policies on this group of people, perceived worldwide to be the drivers of economic growth. With high and rising income inequality in Zambia, we propose two operational definitions of the middle class by exploring the middle class from a median perspective and from a ‘relative affluence’ perspective. Defining the middle class on the basis of the ‘actual middle’ versus ‘relative affluence’ provides vastly different pictures. The results show that individuals and households that fall in the ‘relative affluence’ group have achieved a modest standard of living and are actually near the top of the country’s income ladder while households in the actual middle of the income distribution in Zambia have a standard of living well below what can be perceived as a ‘middle-class lifestyle’ elsewhere. This requires targeted policy designs when referring to changes in the economic status of the Zambian middle class. We propose a household income distribution framework which combines both the actual middle households and the relatively affluent middle households to create an enabling environment for inclusive growth policies, rather than just pro-poor policies.
Topic:
Education, Economic growth, Class, and Middle Class
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

34. Accelerating Export Growth in Zambia

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR), Bernard Banda, and Joseph Simumba
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Export-transactions data for the period 1999-2011 in Zambia suggests that much of the growth in the value of exports has been driven by the contribution of new exporters than pre-existing exporters. The catastrophic growth among pre-existing exporters is explained by the high death rate that occurs within the first two years of exporting. Approximately between 50%- 60% of exporters will not survive beyond the year of export commencement. We discuss the potentially important policy implications of these rather surprising results relative to the sizeable evidence that shows it is the deepening of export values among existing exporters that drives much of the year-on-year growth in exports for many advanced and developing countries.
Topic:
Economic growth, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

35. An Equitable Allocation of the Constituency Development Fund

Author:
Frank Kakungu
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The disbursement of an equal quantum of funding per constituency has equity concerns because constituencies are not equal. This favours smaller, least populated constituencies against greatly populated and or the poorest – where needs are greatest. The blanket allocation of Constituency Development Fund (CDFs) across the country, without recourse to policy targets underscores national failure to address important policy concerns. This is unfortunately the case in Zambia. In this report, we devised a model that reallocates resources based on the socio-economic conditions prevailing in constituencies. The research developed a composite index of material and social deprivation using data from the Census 2010. Furthermore, the study evaluates the distribution of deprivation in constituencies and considers ways in which deprivation index can contribute to discussions relating to public resource allocation of the CDF. The research results has potential usages beyond the CDF reallocation, it informs decision-makers on resource allocation and planning and budgeting activities.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Governance, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

36. Who are the middle class in Zambia?

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The middle class is increasingly becoming a topical issue in Zambia. However, the lack of a definitive measure of the middle class in the country makes it difficult to have targeted policies towards this group of people, perceived worldwide to be the drivers of economic growth. With high and rising income inequality in Zambia, we define the middle class based on the median and on a ‘relative affluence’ perspective. Findings show that the ‘middle class’ (as understood in everyday usage) is not in the middle of the income distribution. And those who are in the middle are not ‘middle class’ (in the sense of being above some minimum level of affluence). Defining the middle class on the basis of the ‘actual middle’ versus ‘relative affluence’ provides vastly different pictures. This implies that targeted policy designs are required when referring to changes in the economic status of the Zambian middle class. If the middle class is conceptualised in terms of relative affluence, growing the relative size of the middle class would have economic benefits such as growing the pool of people with skilled occupations and raising consumer demand within the domestic economy, which could lead to higher economic growth. In contrast, if the middle class is defined as the actual middle group, then increasing the relative size of the middle class – many of whom are quite poor – would imply supporting economic policies that favour the poor and non-affluent and thus decrease the income gap. This view of the middle class provides an important tool for understanding the status of the ‘average’ Zambian and provides policy makers with a more balanced assessment of development in the country.
Topic:
Economic growth, Class, Middle Class, and Society
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

37. What do the COMESA Customs Union and COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area mean for Zambia’s import trade and trade tax revenue?

Author:
Caesar Cheelo, Njeleka Malata, and Joseph Tembo
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia has participated actively in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional integration programmes. Within SADC it is now reportedly a full participant in the SADC Free Trade Area (FTA), granting duty-free and quota-free access to goods originating from the SADC region. It is also a founding participant in the COMESA FTA and is now looking ahead to participate in the establishment of the COMESA Customs Union. The country is also committed to participate in the recently announced Tripartite FTA, which will establish a free trade area and then eventually a customs union, consolidating the regional economic communities of COMESA, SADC, and the East African Community (EAC). Quite often the actual or potential short-term or transitional impacts of the tariff reforms associated with regional integration are not well known. This is the case with respect to Zambia’s commitments to further integration under the forthcoming COMESA Customs Union and Tripartite FTA. ZIPAR therefore undertook a study to assess the potential effects for Zambia of the forthcoming trade reforms implied in both the COMESA Customs Union and the Tripartite FTA. The study made two starting-point observations: on the one hand, the Tripartite FTA is expected to consolidate the internal markets of the three regional economic communities and facilitate duty- and quota-free trade within the common market, subject to rules of origin. This means the Tripartite FTA will define Zambia’s internal trade policy position with other member states. On the other hand, the COMESA Customs Union, with its Common Tariff Nomenclature, Common External Tariff structure and common Customs Management Regulations, will define Zambia and other COMESA Member States’ common external trade policy position. Given Zambia’s ratification of these trade arrangements, it is important for policy-makers to understand the significance of the trade policy reforms implied in both the COMESA Customs Union and the Tripartite FTA. This paper therefore seeks to determine the implications for Zambia of the trade reforms that the country will undertake. It applies the following methods of ex-ante analysis: (1) Import trade and tariff profiling using simple descriptive statistical analysis of trade for the period 2000-2010 and of tariff structures in 2010; (2) Analysis of required trade policy reforms; and (3) Analysis of revenue implications and economic effects using the World Bank’s Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool (TRIST). Trade and customs data as well as other data were obtained from authentic national and international sources including the Zambia Revenue Authority, COMESA Secretariat, Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Finance, World Trade Organisation and World Bank, among others. The paper’s reference period is 2010.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Economy, Tax Systems, Free Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

38. Resource mobilisation and fundraising in basic schools: A case study of Copperbelt and North-Western province

Author:
Malunga Syacumpi
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Like many other countries, Zambia removed a major barrier to access to primary education when it abolished user fees for Grades 1–7 in 2002. The resulting fall in basic schools’ income, however, has not been relieved by adequate government resources trickling down through the complex school funding system. In an attempt to address their funding problems, some schools have adopted fundraising ventures as a way of supplementing government resources. The successes and practicability of implementation of such ventures remain to be seen. There is a lack of information about the adequacy of such measures and no institutional framework to guide their implementation. This study explores the range of resource mobilisation and fundraising activities adopted by basic schools. It looks into how basic schools are raising funds and how these funds are being utilised based on a sample of 30 basic schools (15 each from Copperbelt and North-Western provinces). The research was conducted through questionnaires with head teachers and school accountants/bursars as well as interviews conducted at the provincial and district level.
Topic:
Development, Education, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, and Mobility
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

39. Constraints on the demand for youth labour in Zambia

Author:
ZIPAR, Grayson Koyi, Gibson Masumbu, and Albert Halwampa
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia is one of many developing countries struggling to create adequate employment opportunities for its people, especially in the formal economy. Unemployment is highest among youths (15–24 years old) and particularly affects those without skills. Unless the challenge of youth unemployment is met, Zambia could face rising poverty levels in the future. Based on a survey of firms in the mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and construction industries, this study analyses constraints on the demand for youth labour and identifies five broad policy areas in which the government could help make it easier for firms to absorb more young people.
Topic:
Poverty, Labor Issues, Youth, Mining, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia