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1. Brexit: An Assessment of Zambia- UK Trade & Investment Relations

Author:
Shimukunki Manchishi and Mwanda Phiri
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Following the Brexit referendum held in the UK in 2016 that resulted in a majority vote to leave the EU, there has been speculation and uncertainty surrounding the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between the UK and developing countries such as Zambia. With Brexit, comes the exit of the UK from the EU, its customs union as well as the single market. Consequently, this implies that Zambia’s trade with the UK will no longer be under the ambit of the EU Everything But Arms (EBA) trade agreement which grants Zambian products other than arms, duty-free and quota-free market access to the UK. Naturally, this brings about questions of the likely impact of Brexit on trade relations between Zambia and the UK which thus far, has been determined collectively under the framework of the EU since the UK’s accession to the EU customs union. In this policy paper, we provide a contextual analysis of the same. From this, we deduce that a ‘deal’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit is not likely to adversely impact the UK’s trade with Zambia. This is on condition that the UK’s own unilateral preference scheme comes into place and in time, to replicate the EU-EBA scheme with no disruption to traders. On the Investment front, although the UK has been Zambia’s fourth-largest source country for FDI inflows over the period 2010-2017, investments have been waning. Brexit has the potential to turn things around as the UK seeks to increase investments in other jurisdictions outside of the EU. With the UK now envisioning to become the largest G7 investor in Africa by 2022, there is a high probability that Brexit could lead to a positive investment crowding in effect, provided Zambia becomes a more attractive investment destination.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Brexit, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and Zambia

2. State of Financial Cooperatives in Zambia: A viable option for increasing financial inclusion?

Author:
Tamara Billima-Mulenga, Felix Mwenge, and Gibson Masumbu
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This policy brief presents the summary findings of a study on Promoting Financial Cooperatives (FCs)in Zambia that was conducted between 2017 and 2018 with financial support from the Rural Finance Expansion Program (RUFEP), Ministry of Commerce Trade and Industry (MCTI) and the Zambia Center for Accountancy Studies (ZCAS). The study used both qualitative and quantitative approaches which included a situational analysis of FCs in Zambia, a study tour to Kenya and a Census of FCs in eight provinces. The main objective of the study was to contribute to the development of FCs in Zambia by generating information on their performance. The secondary objectives of the study were to: 1. Undertake a situational analysis to develop a clear understanding of the landscape for the FCs in Zambia in terms of the regulatory framework, support institutions and the nature and level at which the FCs operate. 2. Undertake a Census of FCs to understand the opportunities and constraining factors for the growth of the Cooperatives movement in Zambia. It was envisaged that the study would provide evidence about FCs that could be used in the revision of the Cooperatives Act currently underway, aid MCTI understand the nature of Cooperatives and devise strategies for monitoring FCs. The study also aimed at providing information about the state of FCs that can be used for various purposes by the apex body of FCs and stakeholders such as the Bank of Zambia.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Trade, and Financial Cooperatives
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

3. A Tightening Balancing Act: Economic Implications of Zambia's Balance of Payments Performance

Author:
Caesar Cheelo and Thulani Banda
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
International trade and investment are primary drivers of globalization, international trade and development. In 2014, Zambia’s trade openness – in terms of total monetary flows on all export and import transactions combined – was estimated at 79.6% of GDP while the total (cumulative) stock on inward FDI was 66.5% of GDP. The recent economic headwinds in Zambia and abroad motivated this review of the country’s external position relative to the rest of the world. This paper highlights the changes in the balance of payments (BOP), a key tool for monitoring Zambia’s economic performance vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The balance of payments shows the Zambia’s financial transactions with other countries in the world, recoding the flows of money into and out of the economy through a number of payments accounts. Checking the economy’s balance of payments position offers useful insights about its external sector’s health. In a sense, the monetary flows through the balance of payments reflect Zambia’s net dependency on the rest of the world. The context of the analysis in the paper is the economic malaise of 2015. The paper thus demonstrates that the economic debacle of 2015 is not an unfamiliar experience for Zambia. It draws on the country’s economic recent history, identifying parallels between the past and the present. It seeks to offer guidance to policy-makers, towards fostering foster effective and reliable responses to the external balance challenges. Particularly, the paper analyses the fundamental elements of Zambia’s balance of payments, describing their recent behaviour and highlighting some of the main drivers of imbalances in the different payments accounts. It recommends measures for correcting some of the imbalance in the balance of payments, seeking to contribute to the improvement of the external sector’s performance.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

4. China-Africa Trade Developments and Impacts: Case of China-Zambia Relations

Author:
Caesar Cheelo, Pamela Nakamba-Kabaso, and Zhun Che
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
At a glance, China and Zambia – just like China and Africa – are strikingly different in many ways. They followed markedly different paths to development. They achieved significantly divergent trade and development results. However, they also have many striking commonalities, including a shared long history of developmental cooperation and relations. But, what are the lessons of China-Zambia relations for Zambia’s developmental goals and aspirations, including those in the Vision 2030? This study sought to undertake a critical comparative assessment of the trade (and other underpinning socioeconomic) developments in China, Africa and Zambia, with a view to understanding their impetus as well as their consequences, both positive and negative, for China- Africa and China -Zambia ties. It offers unique perspectives and understanding about China-Africa and China-Zambia relations. It takes a look at the history and present-day China- Africa and China-Zambia relations, considering the social and cultural ties that have defined cooperation as well as the political and diplomatic relations that have been forged over time. It unravels the trade and development implications of these relations for Zambia, Africa and China.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Bilateral Relations, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Zambia

5. Accelerating Export Growth in Zambia

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR), Bernard Banda, and Joseph Simumba
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Export-transactions data for the period 1999-2011 in Zambia suggests that much of the growth in the value of exports has been driven by the contribution of new exporters than pre-existing exporters. The catastrophic growth among pre-existing exporters is explained by the high death rate that occurs within the first two years of exporting. Approximately between 50%- 60% of exporters will not survive beyond the year of export commencement. We discuss the potentially important policy implications of these rather surprising results relative to the sizeable evidence that shows it is the deepening of export values among existing exporters that drives much of the year-on-year growth in exports for many advanced and developing countries.
Topic:
Economic growth, Exports, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia