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Begin New Search Political Geography Global Focus Publishing Institution Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)

1. An Equitable Allocation of the Constituency Development fund

Author:
Frank Kakungu
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The disbursement of an equal quantum of funding per constituency has equity concerns because constituencies are not equal. This favours smaller, least populated constituencies against greatly populated and or the poorest – where needs are greatest. The blanket allocation of Constituency Development Fund (CDFs) across the country, without recourse to policy targets underscores national failure to address important policy concerns. This is unfortunately the case in Zambia. In this report, we devised a model that reallocates resources based on the socio-economic conditions prevailing in constituencies. The research developed a composite index of material and social deprivation using data from the Census 2010. Furthermore, the study evaluates the distribution of deprivation in constituencies and considers ways in which deprivation index can contribute to discussions relating to public resource allocation of the CDF. The research results has potential usages beyond the CDF reallocation, it informs decision-makers on resource allocation and planning and budgeting activities.
Topic:
International Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Economic Distress and the Inevitability of an Economic Recovery Programme

Author:
ZIPAR
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia is emerging from a major economic downturn. The copper price collapse, electricity shortages, huge fall in the value of the Kwacha and high inflation in 2015 left the economy stalling. Growth in 2015 was 2.9% and possibly 3.4% in 2016, significantly below the long-term average rate of 6.9%. The downturn was compounded by a tightening of monetary policy which made it harder for businesses to borrow, and by a continuation of expansionary fiscal policies which increased the budget deficit and Government debt. Because the scale of the challenge was so significant, the Government announced it would launch Zambia Plus, a home-grown recovery programme to put the economy back on track
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Eurobonds Repayment - Limiting the Risk of Default

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo and Albert Halwampa
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
In recent years, the Zambian economy has been growing strongly and the country has increasingly been faced with the need to plug huge infrastructural gaps. However, the slowing down of bilateral and multilateral financing due to austerity measures in developed economies and the World Bank’s reclassification of Zambia as a lower middle income country has led financiers to divert concessional loans to other needy countries in the low income bracket. Consequently, Zambia has had to diversify its budget and project financing options by issuing Eurobonds which are commercial borrowings by governments in currencies other than their own - in Zambia’s case, it is denominated in US dollars. Since 2012, the Zambian Government has issued two ten-year sovereign bonds collectively worth US$1.75 billion to mainly finance infrastructure projects. These two bonds amounted to 37% of Zambia’s external debt in 2014. With an average coupon rate of 6.9%, the two bonds have bullet repayment structures, implying that lump sum principal payments will be paid at the end of their respective ten-year maturity periods. The coupon rate is the interest rate at the time of issuance. Notwithstanding the high interest payments of over US$125 million annually, the bullet structure of the two bonds may have significant repayment risks as the country is expected to pay out the US$1.75 billion within a two-year period (in 2022 and 2024). The country may experience difficulty in repaying or refinancing the face value at maturity if the money is not spent in activities with high economic returns and if there are adverse changes in its exchange rate or international market conditions. The risks are already on the horizon – the recent depreciation of the Kwacha has increased debt servicing costs, while the low copper prices have reduced the much-needed export revenues used to service debt. Has Zambia dug itself into another debt hole? What measures can be put in place to mitigate the risk of a pending default
Topic:
Debt and International Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Second Hand Motor Vehicles Imports

Author:
Thulani Banda and Zali Chikuba
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The sustained positive growth of the Zambian economy has resulted in many shifts in consumption patterns of Zambian households. One notable change is the increased consumption of consumer durables, particularly motor vehicles. Motor vehicle ownership has increased substantially since 2004. The increase in motor vehicle ownership owes in part to the highly unbridled access to second hand motor vehicle imports. The downside of the relaxed motor vehicle import regulations as observed in Zambia is the ageing of the motor vehicle fleet and deterioration in fleet safety. Second hand motor vehicles imported in the country may be fine, but they may also be unreliable – commonly referred to as lemons in economic literature – and costly to maintain thereby generating serious financial, road safety and environmental concerns. Considering that Zambia is one of the highest road fatality risk countries in Africa with 23.7 road traffic deaths per 100,000 people, the ageing fleet of motor vehicles only compounds the risk. Thus, more deliberate measures to ensure lives are safeguarded and consumers get value-for-money on motor vehicle imports should be devised and implemented urgently.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Accelerating export growth in Zambia

Author:
ZIPAR
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Export-transactions data for the period 1999-2011 in Zambia suggests that much of the growth in the value of exports has been driven by the contribution of new exporters than pre-existing exporters. The catastrophic growth among pre-existing exporters is explained by the high death rate that occurs within the first two years of exporting. Approximately between 50%- 60% of exporters will not survive beyond the year of export commencement. We discuss the potentially important policy implications of these rather surprising results relative to the sizeable evidence that shows it is the deepening of export values among existing exporters that drives much of the year-on-year growth in exports for many advanced and developing countries.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Constraints on the demand for youth labour in Zambia

Author:
ZIPAR
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia is one of many developing countries struggling to create adequate employment opportunities for its people, especially in the formal economy. Unemployment is highest among youths (15–24 years old) and particularly affects those without skills. Unless the challenge of youth unemployment is met, Zambia could face rising poverty levels in the future. Based on a survey of firms in the mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and construction industries, this study analyses constraints on the demand for youth labour and identifies five broad policy areas in which the government could help make it easier for firms to absorb more young people.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Bridging the PAYE gap

Author:
ZIPAR
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia’s tax revenue-to-GDP ratio dropped to a record low of 13% in the early 1990s from a peak of 30% in the 1970s. To address the problem, Government embarked on a wide range of tax reforms that included the formation of the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) in order to increase revenue collection through efficient tax administration. Despite these reforms, tax revenues have remained low, averaging only 17% of GDP. The low tax revenues can be partly attributed to tax evasion. The current legal and administrative measures to address this problem are inadequate. This is evidenced by the underperformance of taxes such as PAYE with a significant proportion remaining uncollected. The estimated PAYE tax gap as a percent of GDP is 6.7% or 40.3% of total tax revenues in 2010. Government should embark on comprehensive legal and administrative tax reforms in order to minimise the tax gap, thereby combating tax evasion.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus