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422. Iraq After the Surge: Options and Questions
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer and Sam Parker
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Iraq remains a critical problem for the United States. Security has improved to roughly 2005 levels, and tentative political progress has been made, but there is no visible end to the U.S. commitment required to prevent Iraq from spinning out of control and threatening a widening war in the region. The Bush Administration and the Congress face difficult choices: How can the relative success during the period of the surge be prolonged and solidified? Should the drawdown continue? When will the Iraqi security forces be ready to take over? What can be done to accelerate political progress?
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
423. Resurrecting the Wall of Fear: The Human Rights Situation in Syria
- Author:
- Robert Grace
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past several months, Syrian authorities have engaged in a harsh campaign of repression against leading dissidents and human rights activists. The crackdown, overshadowed by developments elsewhere in the region, has received scant media coverage in the U.S. and Europe. To shed light on recent developments in the Syrian political scene, USIP recently convened a public discussion on human rights in Syria, featuring the Institute's Radwan Ziadeh, Mona Yacoubian, and Steven Heydemann, and Joe Stork of Human Rights Watch. This USIPeace Briefing summarizes their presentations and the subsequent discussion.
- Topic:
- Human Rights and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
424. Kenya: Setting the Stage for Durable Peace?
- Author:
- Dorina Bekoe
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The botched results from the December 27, 2007 presidential elections in Kenya sparked a wave of violence across the country that left more than 1,000 dead and 600,000 displaced. Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki, representing the ruling Party of National Unity (PNU), was declared the winner of the presidential polls over Raila Odinga, of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Supporters of the ODM, which had won 99 parliamentary seats against PNU's 43 (out of 210 elected seats), charged that the election had been rigged. The chairman of the Electoral Commission of Kenya has since stated that the PNU and the ODM-K (an allied party) forced him to call the election, even with irregularities in the tallying.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
425. Is Liberia's Governance and Economic Management Assistance Program a "Necessary Intrusion?"
- Author:
- Raymond Gilpin and Emily Hsu
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Improving economic management after almost two decades of violent conflict and civil unrest has been a top priority of Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf's reform agenda since her January 2006 inauguration. In April 2008, her administration could point to appreciable improvements in fiscal performance and economic progress, signs that the desired enhancements in economic management may have started to materialize. Many observers speculate whether these developments could be attributed to the country's multi-stakeholder Governance and Economic Management Assistance Program (GEMAP). If so, what lessons could be learned for other post-conflict countries? At an April 9, 2008 USIP event on the subject, the Liberian Finance Minister, the Honorable Antoinette Sayeh, reflected on GEMAP's impact, highlighted some challenges and discussed its applicability as a model for other countries. While recognizing the program's contributions, she emphasized that it is only one component of a much broader framework of reforms initiated since 2006. Sayeh also underscored the vital leadership role that President Sirleaf has played in the design and implementation of Liberia's public expenditure reform program.
- Topic:
- Development and Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Liberia
426. Analyzing Iran's Domestic Political Landscape
- Author:
- Kelly Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The results of Iran's March 14, 2008 parliamentary elections-a 70 percent victory for conservatives within Iran-came as little surprise. The ruling elite disqualified approximately 1,700 reformist candidates before the elections, minimizing the risk of a conservative defeat. However, the results revealed a growing divide between conservatives allied with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a "third way" movement led by pragmatic conservatives who, though loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, are critical of Ahmadinejad's economic policies and confrontational rhetoric with the West. The surprising electoral success of these pragmatic conservatives may pose a significant challenge to Ahmadinejad in Iran's 2009 presidential elections.
- Topic:
- Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
427. Iraq's Interior Ministry: Frustrating Reform
- Author:
- Robert M. Perito
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- In December 2006, the Iraq Study Group reported that the Iraqi Interior Ministry (MOI) was confronted by corruption, infiltrated by militia and unable to control the Iraqi police. In July 2007, the Los Angeles Times reported that Iraq's MOI had become a "federation of oligarchs" where various floors of the building were controlled by rival militia groups and organized criminal gangs. The report described the MOI as an eleven-story powder keg of factions where power struggles were settled by assassinations in the parking lot. In its September 2007 report, the congressionally mandated Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq described Iraq's MOI as a ministry in name only, dysfunctional, sectarian and suffering from ineffective leadership. Even Iraq's Interior Minister, Jawad al-Boulani, has called for the comprehensive reform of his ministry.
- Topic:
- Democratization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
428. Half Full or Half Empty: Assessing Prospects for Peace in Lebanon
- Author:
- Alistair Harris
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- On the surface, peace has broken out in Lebanon, bringing to an end the 18-month political impasse between the governing March 14th coalition and opposition March 8th parties. Following a week of sectarian violence in Beirut, Tripoli and the Chouf mountains—the worst since the end of Lebanon's 15-year civil war in 1990—the opposing sides agreed to undertake talks in Qatar to resolve their longstanding political stalemate. The Qatari-sponsored Doha Accord that broke the logjam paved the way for the May 25 election of former Army Commander Michel Suleiman as a consensus president, to be closely followed by the formation of a national unity government and the adoption of a revised election law. The re-invigoration of Lebanon's political institutions, the opening of parliament and ending of the presidential vacuum are welcome signs of a return to what passes for normalcy among Lebanon's confessional elites; they are not however a return to the status quo ante. For many months Arab League Chairman Amr Moussa, like French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, had tried to cajole the Lebanese belligerents into a compromise deal based on the much-vaunted concept of "no victor, no vanquished". These efforts failed. The fact that Doha succeeded where others did not is a clear indicator that there were indeed winners and losers. Therein lies the potential for future conflict.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
429. Bringing Peace to the Niger Delta
- Author:
- Kelly Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The conflict in the Niger Delta has posed a fundamental domestic challenge to Nigerian security for more than a decade. Despite pledges to address continued instability in the Delta, the administration of Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua has not yet initiated a process to resolve the political, economic and security problems in the region. Oil production continues to diminish as a result of militant attacks, and is currently 20 to 25 percent below capacity. Meanwhile, militia members in the Niger Delta continue to engage in criminal activities such as kidnapping and oil bunkering1 to maximize profits for themselves and their political patrons.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Oil
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
430. Making Bosnia Work: Why EU Accession is Not Enough
- Author:
- Edward P. Joseph and R. Bruce Hitchner
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- More than twelve years after the Dayton Agreement ended the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the stagnant, divided country is about to enter a potentially transformative process. On June 16, Bosnia will sign a Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European Union, cementing the country's relationship and identifying it as a prospective EU member. The SAA not only launches a process of sweeping institutional reform, but also makes Bosnia eligible for new categories of financial assistance and imposes new responsibilities on Bosnia's leaders. Advocates believe that the "sink or swim" approach of the European Commission (EC, the EU entity that traditionally leads SAA implementation) will finally wean Bosnia from dependence on international authority toward genuine cross-ethnic cooperation over a shared goal.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Balkans