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361. Won't You Be My Neighbor: Syria, Iraq and the Changing Strategic Context in the Middle East

Author:
Steven Simon
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
From a strategic perspective, Syria has gained some advantages and some disadvantages since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. President Bashar al - Asad, considered a callow leader five years ago, faced a testing period in 2003–06 and did more than merely survive. He withstood a threat of imminent regime change at the hands of the United States, and weathered heavy international fallout from the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and the summer war in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah, which Syria has long supported. Bashar has emerged a cagey geopolitical operator, able to manage a delicate strategic balance, and Syria is now stronger than it has been at any time in recent history. Yet Syria faces a number of internal challenges due to Iraq's instability. Primary among these is coping socially, economically, and politically with a huge influx of Iraqi refugees, and mitigating the effect that sectarian (Shia-Sunni) and ethnic (Arab-Kurd) conflict in Iraq has on the fragile status quo in Syria.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict, Regional Cooperation, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

362. The Real Bridge to Nowhere: China's Foiled North Korea Strategy

Author:
Drew Thompson and Carla Freeman
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On January 1, 2009, Chinese President Hu Jintao and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il exchanged greetings and declared 2009 the “year of China-DPRK friendship,” marking 60 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Despite pledges to deepen cooperation and promote exchanges, however, the New Year began with the China-North Korean border closed and pervasive uncertainty about Kim's health and the political stability of the DPRK. For Beijing, Pyongyang's behavior and renewed tensions between the two Koreas raise its concerns about the prospects for broader regional conflict. It also sees developments on the peninsula as they may affect its own territory should instability in the DPRK spill into Northeast China. It is Kim Jong Il's failure to reform the North Korean economy and take measures to institute a succession process to enhance political predictability in the country that are a source of anxiety both among senior leaders in Beijing and local leaders in areas along the DPRK border. Nowhere is the uncertainty about North Korea's future more acutely felt than in China's border region with North Korea, and there are few places where these concerns are closer to home than in Jilin Province's Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture. With more than 800,000 Chinese-Koreans and a 522 km long land border with North Korea, Yanbian is likely to bear the brunt of failures in China's policies toward its difficult neighbor.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

363. North Korea, Inc.: Gaining Insights into North Korean Regime Stability from Recent Commercial Activities

Author:
John S. Park
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Assessing regime stability in North Korea continues to be a major challenge for analysts. By examining how North Korea, Inc. — the web of state trading companies affiliated to the Korean Workers' Party (KWP), the Korean People's Army (KPA), and the Cabinet — operates, we can develop a new framework for gauging regime stability in North Korea. Insights into the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) regime can be gained by examining six core questions related to the DPRK state trading company system. First, what are DPRK state trading companies and how did they emerge? Second, how do DPRK state trading companies operate? Third, what roles do they play? Fourth, why are DPRK state trading companies important? Fifth, what major transformations are taking place in the DPRK state trading company system? Sixth, what are the implications of the manner in which this system is currently functioning?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Communism, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:
North Korea

364. U.S.-Iranian Engagement Toward A Grand Agenda?

Author:
Daniel Brumberg and Eriks Berzins
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On February 23, 2009, the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), together with the United Nations Association-USA and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, held a roundtable discussion among top Middle East experts and former United States Government officials. Held at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, the meeting's purpose was to discuss prospects for creating a diplomatic framework through which the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran can address issues of common concern in the Middle East and South Asia, and in so doing, advance an engagement dynamic that might eventually open the doors for rapprochement between the two countries.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Peace Studies, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United Nations

365. Building Blocks for Citizenship and a Peaceful Transition in Sudan

Author:
Kelly Campbell, Linda Bishai, and Jacki Wilson
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Sudan's upcoming elections in 2009 raise hopes and concerns for the country's future. According to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005 between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Sudan is scheduled to hold national and state level elections in 2009. (Elections are to take place for president of the Government of National Unity, president of the Government of Southern Sudan, members of the National Assembly and the South Sudan Legislative Assembly, and governors and state legislatures in all of Sudan's 25 states.) However, delays in each phase of electoral preparation — including the passage of the electoral law, the appointment of the nine National Election Commission members responsible for overseeing elections, and the census — have raised doubts about whether the elections will be held within the timeframe outlined in the CPA.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:
Sudan

366. The Role of the Ministerial Advisor in Security Sector Reform: Navigating Institutional Terrains

Author:
Liz Panarelli
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
International actors in Security Sector Reform (SSR) are increasingly taking on roles as “advisors” to Ministries of Interior, Defense, and Justice. Rather than directly implement changes necessary for SSR, these advisors must persuasively articulate suggestions to their local counterparts. Advisors' success depends on their ability to convey recommendations in a manner that makes change acceptable to their advisees. Ministerial and governmental advising is not the exclusive purview of any one entity. Rather, advising is undertaken by a diverse range of individuals from U.S. and foreign governments, militaries, NGOs, private contractors, and U.N. agencies. These actors have correspondingly diverse objectives and approaches to SSR; without coordination or consensus on SSR programming, advisors may find themselves working at cross - purposes. Furthermore, the multiplicity of advisors and institutions makes sharing best practices and improving over time and across conflicts extremely difficult.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

367. What to do about Bosnia and Herzegovina?: The Case for Accelerated NATO Membership and OSCE Coordination of Constitutional Reform

Author:
Edward P. Joseph
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The policy choice in Bosnia revolves around one question: how much time does the country have? If one believes that the country is reasonably stable, that another election will produce more cooperative leaders, and that Bosnia's "EU future" is assured, then the way forward is clear: cede international leadership in Bosnia from the U.S. to the European Union.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, and Democratization
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

368. Unfinished Business in Bosnia and Herzegovina: What Is To Be Done?

Author:
Kurt Bassuener and James Lyon
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This is the first of three papers USIP will publish this month on Bosnia, each with a different analytical perspective on what is happening in Bosnia and what needs to be done there to prevent a return to violence. We do this in the hope that these papers will generate a fuller debate on options that might be pursued by the U.S. government (USG), Europe and Bosnians.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Democratization, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

369. Maliki's Iraq between Two Elections

Author:
Daniel Serwer and Sam Parker
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In meetings conducted in Baghdad in May 2009, senior Iraqi leaders indicated how they interpret January's provincial election results, expressed concerns about the recent downturn in security, lamented the tremendous financial pressure the government is feeling due to the decline in oil prices, and projected their hopes for national elections slated for 30 January 2010. The Iraq is, numbering about 20, represented the highest level of nearly all of the main Iraqi political factions, including leaders in the Council of Representatives (COR), members of the presidency, and top officials in the government.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

370. Haiti: Is Economic Security Possible if Diplomats and Donors Do Their Part?

Author:
Robert Perito
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In 2009, Haiti has been the subject of an unprecedented diplomatic initiative led by the United Nations. In rapid succession, Haiti received visits from the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, the UN Security Council, former President Bill Clinton and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and numerous senior delegations from Caribbean and South American countries. In April, Haiti was the subject of an international donors' conference hosted by the Inter-American Development Bank that reaffirmed previous commitments and pledged $324 million in new economic assistance. The visits and the donors' conference were preceded by a UN sponsored report by Oxford economist and bestselling author Paul Collier on specific steps that could help Haiti achieve economic security.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
South America, Caribbean, and Haiti