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341. A New Kind of Balkans Drama

Author:
Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Balkans face more trouble in Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina unless the United States and European Union take dramatic steps to get both back on track towards EU membership. In Bosnia, the international community needs to reconstitute itself as well as support an effort to reform the country's constitution. In Kosovo, Pristina and Belgrade need to break through the barriers to direct communication and begin discussions on a wide range of issues. This brief proposes specific diplomatic measures to meet these needs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

342. Cooperation and Tension in Regional and Global Infectious Disease Surveillance

Author:
Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Globalization of infectious disease transmission has led to international and regional initiatives to improve surveillance and response. The World Health Organization's revised International Health Regulations provide a more robust legal framework for outbreak investigations. New regional networks are strengthening collaborative approaches to prevention of pandemics even in parts of the world where political tensions usually run high. To fulfill the promise of these new mechanisms, the United States should integrate capacity development for disease surveillance into its global health strategy, including providing greater investment in laboratories, training and technical assistance for low-income countries. Effective international cooperation has not extended to creating a system for equitable distribution of vaccines, resulting in vast disparities in availability of vaccines between richer and poorer countries. As a result, political tensions between wealthy and low-income countries have increased. Unless inequity is addressed, global health security will not advance.
Topic:
Globalization and World Health Organization
Political Geography:
United States

343. Education and Conflict in Cote d'Ivoire

Author:
Joseph Sany
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In 2002, civil war broke out in Côte d'Ivoire, dividing communities and destroying already fragile public institutions, including its education system. While the education sector in Côte d'Ivoire was clearly a victim of the civil war, which raged until late 2004, it was also a catalyst for the conflict. The underlying causes of the conflict in Côte d'Ivoire are multiple and complex. In regard to the role played by education, the problem rested less with the curriculum, which was the same across the country, and more with access to and coordination and allocation of resources, which were unequally distributed by region. Such education-based inequalities exacerbated frustrations and more importantly created the space for violent political and social contestations, which have opened the road to the politicization of education and fueled the conflict. The conflict seriously damaged an already struggling education system, relegating education to the bottom of the national priority list and preventing thousands of stakeholders— both students and teachers—from gaining access to it. It is important to think beyond previous interventions, which saw education as a strategy for poverty reduction, and embrace those efforts that recognize the intricate relationship between education and conflict. Interventions in Côte d'Ivoire's education system should not only address those issues related to coordination, capacity building, resources, curriculum, and access, but also those issues related to peace and conflict. The government of Côte d'Ivoire should take the lead in such education-sector interventions and request technical and financial support from specialized international institutions, NGOs, and financial institutions.
Topic:
Education and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

344. Fighting Corruption in Security Sector Reform

Author:
Robert Perito and Madeline Kristoff
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Corruption in the security sector damages society's trust in the government. Donors must coordinate on anti-corruption programs and make sure not to engage in corruption themselves. Corruption is highly political and context specific. Fighting both high and low-levels of corruption should be a priority in security sector reform.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Political Power Sharing

345. Haiti: A Forward Look

Author:
Robert M. Perito
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Five months after Haiti's January 12th earthquake, the situation on the ground remains critical. With the arrival of hurricane season, the failure to provide adequate shelter and instill hope for a better future threatens stability. Donor pledges of more than $5 billion for assistance have not translated into visible progress, fueling discontent and raising growing concern among Haitians about their government's electiveness. Haiti's government has tried to exert leadership in recovery operations despite the destruction of government buildings, the death of nearly 25 percent of the civil service personnel and the massive dislocations caused by the earthquake. The Haitian government has also begun preparations for presidential and parliamentary elections in November 2010. The combination of faltering recovery at a time of national elections could provoke unrest.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

346. Improving Natural Resource Management in Sudan: A Strategy for Effective State Building and Conflict Resolution

Author:
Paul J. Sullivan and Natalie Nasrallah
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Most experts view secession as the most likely outcome of the 2011 referendum on southern Sudan's potential secession. While this scenario may lead to some stability in the long run, effective secession immediately after the referendum may prove difficult. There is significant concern about preparedness for the referendum at the national, regional, and community levels. While postponing the vote may provide some breathing room, it heightens the risk of uncertainty and instability. Each plausible scenario—unity, secession, or a delay to the referendum—holds great uncertainty and risk regarding the potential impacts on oil, land, and water. The effects of each scenario could drastically change if the political and economic situations on the ground become more fragile. Management of petroleum resources is one of the most serious challenges facing Sudan's leaders. Petroleum is the largest foreign exchange earner and the biggest contributor to fiscal revenues for both north and south. Potential flash points include revenue transparency and equitable sharing formulas, as well as financing for exploration, production, new infrastructure development, and maintenance of existing infrastructure. There are insufficient data on, and attention to, use and potential of land and water. The management of both resources poses serious challenges that could derail statehood and precipitate violence. If oil, water, and land are not managed and developed properly and sustainably, both north and south Sudan could be facing a much more uncertain and violent future.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Sudan

347. Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over

Author:
Tara Nesvaderani
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule. Young activists have heavily influenced the Islamic Republic's political agenda over the past 13 years. After the 2009 presidential election, youth and women were the two biggest blocs behind the region's first sustained “people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political model in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic has forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through mass detentions of young activists, expulsions from universities and widening the powers of its own young paramilitary forces. Nevertheless, the demands from young people have not changed over the past year, and their anger is boiling just beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among youth. The impact of Iran's youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran's nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran

348. Lebanon's Evolving Relationship with Syria: Back to the Future or Turning a New Page?

Author:
Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Lebanon's outreach to Syria is motivated by significant shifts in the regional political landscape, particularly Syria's renewed regional and global influence. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri appears to have made a strategic decision that rapprochement with Syria is in Lebanon's best interest, offering the greatest chance for stability and resolution of a number of outstanding bilateral issues including greater guarantees for Lebanese sovereignty. Syria's renewed influence in Lebanon comes in a variety of forms, but its alliance with Hezbollah is the most potent trajectory of its power and influence. It is too early to determine whether this shift in relations marks a return of Syrian predominance in Lebanon, or signals a new page in the bilateral relationship. Much will depend on how Syria and Lebanon as well as external players—especially the U.S. and France—contend with the inherent challenges and opportunities that accompany evolving Syrian-Lebanese ties. The establishment of Lebanese-Syrian diplomatic ties presents the United States with an important opportunity to help foster normal relations between the neighboring countries, particularly the long-sought goal of protecting Lebanese sovereignty. Washington should move forward with dispatching an ambassador to Damascus as part of a broader engagement with Syria. Establishment of high-level diplomatic channels in Syria will allow the United States to leverage its influence more directly and effectively to ensure that Syria moves forward on border demarcation with Lebanon and other measures to help bolster Lebanese sovereignty.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Lebanon and Syria

349. Mediating Peace with Proscribed Armed Groups

Author:
Veronique Dudouet
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Reforms to antiterrorism legislation are required to improve its effectiveness and fairness and make it possible to engage diplomatically with proscribed armed groups. The legal bases for proscription should be clarified and the criteria for delisting published. Listing and delisting instruments should be more nuanced and flexible. In addition, a separate legal and political component should facilitate engagement with proscribed groups in peace processes and humanitarian work. Political engagement with proscribed armed groups is possible and desirable when, first, the conflict parties (state and non state alike) are interested in exploring political solutions to a conflict; second, the parties are seen as legitimate representatives of social, political, or cultural interests by their community; third, parties have the capacity to deliver a ceasefire or peace agreement; fourth, engagement could generate significant behavioral change on the part of the actors involved; and fifth, strategic national interests favor engagement, or there is a strong demand by allies or the conflict victims to engage politically. Potential mediators working with proscribed groups should be aware of the risks of conferring legitimacy to a violent group, undermining moderates, and possibly extending the conflict if parties use negotiations to buy time or strengthen themselves militarily. Engagement also is not recommended when the position and demands of an armed group are so radical and outrageous that there is no possibility of finding an acceptable common ground. To enhance the chances of effective negotiations, mediators should thoroughly analyze the situation, set realistic expectations, and regularly evaluate the process and outcome of engagement. Various state and non state interveners should collaborate and divide labor among themselves. All significant armed groups and unarmed stakeholders should be involved in negotiations through multiple forms and tactics of engagement, recognizing that all conflict parties are entitled to continue pursuing their goals through nonviolent political means.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Politics, and Peacekeeping

350. The Premiership

Author:
Sean Kane
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The institution of Iraq's prime minister has evolved since the previous national government was formed in 2006. The success of incumbent Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki in building an independent power base around the office and the diminishing U.S. presence in Iraq have transformed the perception and stature of Iraq's chief executive. This evolution of the position helps to explain why negotiations over the government's formation have struggled to move beyond the top post to discuss other assignments and the new government's agenda. The talks are not just about agreeing on a prime minister in the context of inconclusive, close election results, and competing regional influences; these talks are trying to define the role of the premiership and possible checks on its power. Understanding the debate on possible checks and balances is important because of its potential ramifications for Iraq's democratic experiment, and also because agreement on this issue might pave the way for the nomination of a prime minister.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq