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31. U.S.-Iranian Engagement Toward A Grand Agenda?

Author:
Daniel Brumberg and Eriks Berzins
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
On February 23, 2009, the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), together with the United Nations Association-USA and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, held a roundtable discussion among top Middle East experts and former United States Government officials. Held at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, the meeting's purpose was to discuss prospects for creating a diplomatic framework through which the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran can address issues of common concern in the Middle East and South Asia, and in so doing, advance an engagement dynamic that might eventually open the doors for rapprochement between the two countries.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Peace Studies, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and United Nations

32. Unfinished Business in Bosnia and Herzegovina: What Is To Be Done?

Author:
Kurt Bassuener and James Lyon
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This is the first of three papers USIP will publish this month on Bosnia, each with a different analytical perspective on what is happening in Bosnia and what needs to be done there to prevent a return to violence. We do this in the hope that these papers will generate a fuller debate on options that might be pursued by the U.S. government (USG), Europe and Bosnians.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Democratization, Peace Studies, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

33. U.S. Policy and Bosnia-Herzegovina: An Assessment

Author:
David Binder, Dr. Steven Meyer, and Obrad Kesic
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This is the final of three papers (read the first and second papers) USIP will publish on Bosnia-Herzegovina, each with a different analytical perspective on what is happening in Bosnia and what needs to be done there to prevent a return to violence. We hope that these papers will generate a debate on options that might be pursued by the U.S. government (USG), Europe and Bosnians. These papers will be discussed at a public forum at the United States Institute of Peace on June 25, 2009.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Balkans

34. U.S. Institute of Peace Teaches International Security Personnel to Resolve Conflicts without Resorting to the Use of Force

Author:
Mary Hope Schwoebel
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) has trained members of police and military forces around the world to prepare them to participate in international peacekeeping operations or to contribute to post-conflict stabilization and rule of law interventions in their own or in other war-torn countries. Most of the training takes place outside the United States, from remote, rugged bases to centrally located schools and academies, from Senegal to Nepal, from Italy to the Philippines.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Philippines, Nepal, Italy, and Senegal

35. Preventing Violent Conflict

Author:
Lawrence Woocher
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
New wars will continue to erupt unabated if greater and smarter efforts are not made to prevent them. Current dangers stem from factors such as the rise of unstable regimes, global economic turbulence, climate change, and the shift in global power distribution. Preventing relapse after wars end is insufficient to prevent most new conflicts, because post-conflict recurrences constitute only a minority of all conflict outbreaks. A wide range of governments—including the United States—and many intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations have made commitments to take serious efforts to prevent violent conflicts. In most respects, these commitments represent a more than adequate normative foundation and a supportive political environment for the development of more robust and effective conflict prevention strategies. Normative and political progress has not been fully matched with development of institutional capacities in governments and international organizations. Expanded conflict prevention capacities will not necessarily require new offices or institutions, but they will require focused attention, resources, and a process to spur action in response to warning signs. The knowledge required to prioritize and target prevention strategies is fairly well developed. More knowledge is needed to help move beyond a description of the conflict prevention toolbox to using these tools as part of empirically grounded prevention strategies. Advancing the conflict prevention agenda will require navigating a series of challenges, including the rapidly changing context in which prevention strategies are applied, a set of difficult political and institutional factors that militate against vigorous preventive action, and the changing role of the United States in the global system. The first step toward meeting the challenges is to make prevention a “must do” priority—on equal par with resolving active conflicts and rebuilding post-conflict states. Other steps include monitoring implementation of existing political commitments to conflict prevention and developing new political strategies to regularize the practice of prevention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, and War

36. Special Report No. 204: Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability

Author:
Jack A. Goldstone
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Preventing violent conflict requires early warning of likely crises so that preventive actions can be planned and taken before the onset of mass violence. For most of the post–World War II period, policymakers and intelligence agencies have relied on experts to make qualitative judgments regarding the risk of instability or violent changes in their areas of study. Yet the inability of such experts to adequately predict major events has led to efforts to use social and analytical tools to create more “scientific” forecasts of political crises. The advent of quantitative forecasting models that give early warning of the onset of political instability offers the prospect of major advances in the accuracy of forecasting over traditional qualitative methods. Because certain models have a demonstrated accuracy of over 80 percent in early identification of political crises, some have questioned whether such models should replace traditional qualitative analysis. While these quantitative forecasting methods should move to the foreground and play a key role in developing early warning tools, this does not mean that traditional qualitative analysis is dispensable. The best results for early warning are most likely obtained by the judicious combination of quantitative analysis based on forecasting models with qualitative analysis that rests on explicit causal relationships and precise forecasts of its own. Policymakers and analysts should insist on a multiple-method approach, which has greater forecasting power than either the quantitative or qualitative method alone. In this way, political instability forecasting is likely to make its largest advance over earlier practices.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and International Political Economy

37. Bringing Peace to the Niger Delta

Author:
Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The conflict in the Niger Delta has posed a fundamental domestic challenge to Nigerian security for more than a decade. Despite pledges to address continued instability in the Delta, the administration of Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua has not yet initiated a process to resolve the political, economic and security problems in the region. Oil production continues to diminish as a result of militant attacks, and is currently 20 to 25 percent below capacity. Meanwhile, militia members in the Niger Delta continue to engage in criminal activities such as kidnapping and oil bunkering1 to maximize profits for themselves and their political patrons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

38. A Toxic Cocktail: Pakistan's Growing Instability

Author:
J Alexander Thier
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Pakistan, a nuclear-armed, predominantly Muslim nation of 165 million, has experienced a dramatic rise in political turmoil and violence in the last year. Following the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, analysts have raised serious concerns about Pakistan's stability and the possibility of a collapse of the federation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

39. Media, Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding: Mapping the Edges

Author:
Sheldon Himelfarb and Megan Chabalowski
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
There is growing recognition among policymakers and conflict management experts that the media should be a building block of any comprehensive peacebuilding strategy. Yet there are scant guidelines in this regard. Projects are still planned and implemented in a relatively ad-hoc manner, with minimal reference to lessons learned from previous initiatives.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, and Peace Studies

40. Special Report No. 214: Abrahamic Alternatives to War: Jewish, Christian, and Muslim Perspectives on Just Peacemaking

Author:
Susan Thistlethwaite and Glen Stassen
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Jewish, Muslim, and Christian sacred texts all contain sections that support violence and justify warfare as a means to achieve certain goals. In particular historical circumstances, these texts have served as the basis to legitimate violent campaigns, oftentimes against other faith communities. Many of the passages from sacred texts in all three religious traditions that are misused in contemporary situations to support violence and war are taken out of context, interpreted in historically inaccurate ways, or can be better translated. Finally, all of these passages need to be understood within (and constrained by) the primary spiritual aims of the individual faith. There are also a great many teachings and ethical imperatives within Jewish, Christian, and Muslim scriptures that promote peace and present the means to achieve it. These include mandates to strive for political, social, and economic justice; tolerant intercommunal coexistence; and nonviolent conflict resolution. The three religious delegations that participated in the conference leading to this report presented slightly different and yet overlapping methods for peacemaking articulated by their sacred scriptures. The considerable overlap led the scholars to affirm the existence of a coherent “Abrahamic Just Peacemaking” paradigm, which began to take focus through their rigorous interfaith debate. Further work is needed to articulate fully this Abrahamic Just Peacemaking paradigm. The conference scholars committed themselves to continued development of this model in pursuit of a rigorous and effective faith-based program to promote alternatives to war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Religion