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71. A Development-focused Allocation of the Special Drawing Rights

Author:
Ernest Aryeetey
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Efforts to realize the issue of development-focused Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been on-going for many years. Recently, however, the campaign first gained a new momentum immediately after the Asian financial crises with the new liquidity problems of developing nations following the collapse of private capital markets. Currently the search for financing options towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals drives the interest in development-focused SDRs. Extending the uses to which SDR can be put is derived from the growing demands on the international financial system to respond to the development finance needs of poor nations. Apart from the need to provide emergency funds in times of crises and the whole area of crisis prevention, increasingly the facilitation of development in poor countries and assistance to make the best policy decisions is considered crucial.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

72. Some Welfare Implications of 'Who Goes First?' in WTO Negotiations

Author:
Basudeb Guha-Khasnobis
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We envisage a logical framework to explain why some trade negotiations are delayed because parties differ on who should 'go first'. In our model, there are substantive welfare implications depending on which party sets tariff rates (or subsidies) first in a strategic optimization exercise. When knowledge about cost levels are incomplete or missing, and hence must be guessed with a probability, the chances of conflict regarding who goes first are extremely high in the situation modeled in this paper. As an institution with some power to set the rules of negotiations, the WTO should be able to anticipate such conflicts in upcoming negotiations. It can then set the rule (in this case, dictate who should go first) depending on whose interest it wants to protect. There is a wide range of choices for the WTO in this regard: OECD consumer's surplus, OECD producers' loss, net exports of developing countries, firm profits, or even, world welfare as the sum of all these components.
Topic:
Development, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

73. Who Gains from Tariff Escalation?

Author:
Basudeb Guha-Khasnobis
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
With the help of a simple model of production and trade, we examine the differential impact of tariff escalation on skilled and unskilled wages in an economy. Our findings provide a lobbying-based explanation of the prevalence of tariff escalation in developed countries. It also predicts the possible response of a developing country and shows how similar lobbying activity in that country can slow the pace of liberalization of service sector trade.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

74. International Trade, Location and Wage Inequality in China

Author:
Songhua Lin
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Models of economic geography predict that transportation costs directly affect demand for goods and the supply of intermediate inputs. One of the reasons that international trade is concentrated in the coastal provinces of China is that they have lower transportation costs in transporting goods to other countries than do provinces in the interior. This paper examines the relationship between the provincial wage rate and each province's access to international markets, and to suppliers of intermediate inputs. A gravity equation is first estimated to construct these 'market access' and 'supplier access' variables. In the second stage, the effect of market access and supplier access on the wage rate is estimated. It is found that about one quarter of the provincial wage differences in the coastal provinces and 15 per cent of the wage differences in the interior provinces can be explained by these economic geography variables.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and East Asia

75. Economic Polarization Through Trade: Trade Liberalization and Regional Growth in Mexico

Author:
Andrés Rodríguez-Pose and Javier Sánchez-Reaza
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper analyses the impact trade liberalization and economic integration have had on regional growth and regional disparities in Mexico over the last two decades. It is highlighted that the passage from an import substitution system to membership of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) first, and to economic integration in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) later, has been associated with greater concentration of economic activity and territorial polarization. The analysis also shows that these changes herald a period of transition between two growth models. Regional growth in the final stages of the import substitution period was mainly characterized by convergence and linked to the presence of oil and raw materials and proximity to Mexico City. Economic liberalization and regional integration in NAFTA has been related to regional divergence, a reduction of the importance of Mexico City as the main market and to the emergence of an economic system in which the endowment of skilled labour starts to play a more important role.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

76. Regional Output Differences in International Perspective

Author:
Alan Heston and Bettina Aten
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Accurate regional estimates of output are desired as an indicator of level of development and as a variable used to explain internal migration, demand patterns, fertility and other aspects of behaviour. This chapter explores one often neglected aspect of regional income differences, namely that due to price differences or regional purchasing power parities. When nominal regional income measures are adjusted for these price level differences they are termed real regional incomes. The preferred method of estimating regional purchasing power parities by detailed price comparisons is discussed for Brazil, the United States and the European Union. The empirical thrust of the chapter is an investigation of different methods for estimating regional real incomes based on PPP data for 167 countries and nominal regional incomes and other data for about 870 administrative areas at the subnational level. Even in their present form we believe the real income estimates provided for the geographical units present opportunities for understanding the world economic structure.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Brazil

77. Impact of Trade Liberalization on Returns from Land: A Regional Study of Indian Agriculture

Author:
Ghosh Nilabja
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Trade liberalization, by aligning domestic prices with world prices, is envisaged to bring welfare gains to a country. In the case of Indian agriculture, owing to the vastness and diversity of the sector, the impact is likely to be profoundly unequal across regions especially when liberalization is double-edged, acting on both output and input sides. This paper views returns from land resource as a primary determinant of farmers' economic well-being and production incentive and considers paddy both as the dominant support for the rural population and as a product with comparative advantage, as most studies have demonstrated. Working with state and sub-state level data and taking account of the differences in technologies, productivities and transport costs, the paper finds that the gains vary regionally and may not be positive in all cases when both output and input prices are globally aligned.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

78. The EU's Everything But Arms Initiative and the Least-developed Countries

Author:
Lucian Cernat, Sam Laird, Luca Monge-Roffarello, and Alessandro Turrini
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using a computable general equilibrium simulation model and partial equilibrium simulations, based on the SMART model, the paper attempts to assess the aggregate worldwide distribution of gains and losses of the EU's Everything But Arms (EBA) initiative for both LDCs and third developing countries under different scenarios.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

79. Developed Country Trade Barriers and the Least Developed Countries: The Economic Results of Freeing Trade

Author:
Jon D. Haveman and Howard J. Shatz
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The Doha Ministerial Declaration emphasized that priority should be given to improving market access for products originating in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). In this paper, we analyze the importance of this proposition with respect to market access in the Triad economies. We first present a brief history of non-reciprocal preferences granted by the Triad. This covers Generalized System of Preference (GSP) programmes in each, and further preferences granted to African, Caribbean and Pacific countries by the EU and preferences granted to Caribbean Basin, Andean, and African countries by the US. This history is followed by an assessment of trade generated by these preferences in the year 2000, and of the extent to which LDC exports might be expected to increase should the preferences be made comprehensive. Preferences in 2000 are shown to have led to an increase of US$3.5 billion in LDC exports, while a complete duty-free treatment could expand LDC exports by as much as US$7.6 billion, 90 per cent of which will be absorbed by the US. As this represents a doubling of LDC exports to these countries, we interpret these results as an endorsement of this priority in the Doha Round of negotiations.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Caribbean

80. The New Global Determinants of FDI Flows to Developing Countries: The Importance of ICT and Democratization

Author:
Tony Addison and Almas Heshmati
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased dramatically in recent years. However, the distribution of FDI is highly unequal and very poor countries face major difficulties in attracting foreign investors. This paper investigates the determinants of FDI inflows to developing countries, with a particular emphasis on the impact of the 'third wave of democratization' that started in the early 1980s and the spread of information and communication technology (ICT) that began in the late 1980s. These two global developments must now be taken into account in any explanation of what determines FDI flows. Using a large sample of countries, together with panel data techniques, the paper explores the determinants of FDI. The causal relationship between FDI, GDP growth, trade openness and ICT is investigated. The main findings are that democratization and ICT increase FDI inflows to developing countries. The paper concludes that more assistance should be given to poorer countries to help them to adopt ICT and to break out of their present 'low ICT equilibrium' trap.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance