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21. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences

Author:
Jeffrey Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
China and Asia

22. China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles

Author:
Jarko Fidrmuc and Ivana Bátorová
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominate s for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OE CD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

23. China's Exports in ICT and its Impact on Asian Countries

Author:
Yuqing Xing
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses China's ICT exports grow thin its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia's exports.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

24. Development Path of China and India and the Challenges for their Sustainable Growth

Author:
Yuefen Li and Bin Zhang
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The segmentation of global manufacturing and services provided China and subsequently India with a golden opportunity to make full use of their absolute advantage—low cost yet educated labour—to integrate into the world economy within a comparatively shorter period of time than some earlier industrialisers. Though international trade functioned as a vent of surplus in view of the narrowness of their domestic markets at the beginning of their economic catch-up, the label of export-led model may not reflect the real picture as imports underwent dramatic increases during their respective growth periods, in particular for China. Foreign direct investment has played a pivotal role in their economic growth and has major presence in international trade and investment in leading sectors of both countries, giving rise to certain special features and weak links for their economic expansion and sustainability of fast economic growth. To maintain more broad-based, fast and balanced growth, it seems that both countries have to redress sectoral imbalances, encourage technology upgrading and cope with future changes in demographic profiles which constituted a trigger to fast economic growth at the time of their respective economic reform.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

25. Post-Conflict Countries and Foreign Investment

Author:
Vesselin Popovski, Nicholas Turner, and Obijiofor Aginam
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Economic development is essential for every country but it is especially crucial for those countries in the aftermath of protracted armed confl ict, needing peacebuilding, recovery and reconstruction. Development aid alone cannot transform damaged economies, and it is here that foreign direct investment (FDI) can be a valuable tool to revitalize industries, rebuild infrastructures and eventually even eliminate the need for aid.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, and Third World

26. Food Safety and Trade Liberalization in an Age of Globalization

Author:
Obijiofor Aginam and Christina Hansen
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Consumer trust of food producers and the governments that regulate them is in notable decline throughout the world, due to frequent and recurring instances of food contamination. Yet consumer trust is pivotal in order to sustain the increasingly globalized nature of food production, processing, and distribution in the international trading relations of states. With an increasing population, rapid urbanization and rise of the middle class, the demand for processed food is increasing significantly, and thus presents inherent risks for food safety and sustainability. The challenge of ensuring effective global food safety standards is inexorably linked to the progressive trade liberalization agenda of the World Trade Organization (WTO). In a globalized world, food-borne outbreaks, like air-borne infectious diseases, disregard the geopolitical boundaries of sovereign states. Food products grown in one part of the world, because of advancements in food production trends and burgeoning international trade between states, are now easily transported to other regions of the world. International trade norms and policies often focus predominantly on traded goods and services, especially “Northern” access to “Southern” markets. Founded on the free trade agenda of market access, and driven by the principles of “National Treatment” and “Most Favoured Nation”, the international trading system—with nation-states as the dominant actors—is asymmetrical in nature. Very often, the international trading system does not effectively address the many fundamental and pressing issues related to environmental degradation, pesticide use and chemical dependency common in modern agricultural practices.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance

27. Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-traditional Export Crops in Guatemala

Author:
Paul Winters, Angeli Kirk, Benjamim Davis, and Calogero Carletto
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
As developing countries continue on the path of economic liberalization, there is a compelling need to ensure that the benefits of globalization reach poor rural communities. Increased commercialization of agriculture and diversification into nontraditional exports (NTXs) is one strategy that has often been advocated as a way for developing countries to use their comparative advantage in lower labor costs and to achieve growth in the agricultural sector. Given the predominantly rural nature of most developing countries and the preponderance of poor people in these areas, high-value agricultural production is considered the ideal mechanism to extend the benefits of globalization directly to the rural poor:1 Allowing poor farmers to shift into the export sector and take advantage of internationally demand driven prices that are higher relative to traditional crops may reduce inequality while fostering overall economic growth (Nissanke and Thorbecke 2007).
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. The Significance of Transport Costs in Africa

Author:
Wim Naudé and Marianne Matthee
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The success of Africa's exports, as well as its spatial development, depends on lowering transport costs. In this Policy Brief, we address a number of pertinent questions on transport costs in Africa, such as 'what are transport costs?', 'do transport costs matter for trade?', 'how important are transport costs in practice?', and 'why are Africa's transport costs so high?' We present a case study of the firm location decisions of exporters in South Africa to illustrate the significance in particular of domestic transport costs for manufactured exports. The message from this Policy Brief is that Africa's international transport costs are significantly higher than that of other regions, and its domestic transport costs could be just as significant. Moreover we show how domestic transport costs influence the location, the quantity, and the diversity of manufactured exports. Various policy options to reduce transport costs in Africa are discussed.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa

29. Stranger than Fiction? Understanding Institutional Changes and Economic Development

Author:
Ha-Joon Chang
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The volume Institutional Change and Economic Development fills some important gaps in our understanding of the relationship between institutional changes and economic development. It does so by developing new discourses on the 'technology of institution building' and by providing detailed case studies—historical and more recent— of institution building. It is argued that functional multiplicity, the importance of informal institutions, unintended consequences, and intended 'perversion' of institutions all imply that the orthodox recipe of importing 'best practice' formal institutions does not work. While denying the existence of universal formulas, the volume distills some general principles of institutions building from theoretical explorations and case studies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance

30. Analysis of the Potential Impact of the Current WTO Agricultural Negotiations on Government Strategies in the SADC Region

Author:
A.J.E. Charman and J. Hodge
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study aims to help identify how the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) could potentially constrain government action to achieve food security in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The paper considers the proposed tariff and subsidy reduction modalities of the current round of WTO negotiations. The main focus is on the potential direct effects of the AoA, in terms of proposed reductions to domestic subsidies and tariffs, on food security policy in SADC countries. The study examines the argument that subsidy reductions and further liberalizing market access may pose constraints on the food security policy options of governments within the region.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa