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11. Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis

Author:
Sumei Tang, E. A. Selvanathan, and S. Selvanathan
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the causal link between foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment and economic growth in China for the period 1988-2003. Towards this purpose, a multivariate VAR system with error correction model (ECM) and the innovation accounting (variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis) techniques are used. The results show that while there is a bi-directional causality between domestic investment and economic growth, there is only a single-directional causality from FDI to domestic investment and to economic growth. Rather than crowding out domestic investment, FDI is found to be complementary with domestic investment. Thus, FDI has not only assisted in overcoming shortage of capital, it has also stimulated economic growth through complementing domestic investment in China.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

12. Foreign Direct Investment from China, India and South Africa in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New or Old Phenomenon?

Author:
John Henley, Stefan Kratzsch, Tamer Tandogan, and Mithat Külür
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The burgeoning literature on outward foreign direct investment from emerging markets has largely focused on analysing the motives of investors as reported by parent companies. This paper, instead, focuses on firm-level investments originating from China, India or South Africa in fifteen host countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis is based on a sub-set of firms drawn from the overall sample of 1,216 foreign-owned firms participating in the UNIDO Africa Foreign Investor Survey, carried out in 2005. The sample of investments originating from China, India and South Africa is analysed in terms of firm characteristics, past and forecast performance in SSA over three years and management's perception of ongoing business conditions. Comparisons are made with foreign investors from the North. The paper concludes that while investors in SSA from the three countries are primarily using their investment to target specific markets, they are largely operating in different sub-sectors. While there appear to be specific features that firms from a given country of origin share, there are no obvious operating-level features they all share apart from market seeking.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, Asia, and South Africa

13. Globalization, Literacy Levels, and Economic Development

Author:
Alok Bhargava
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper estimated models for GDP growth rates, poverty levels, and inequality measures for the period 1990–2000 using data on 54 developing countries at five-yearly intervals. Issues of globalization were investigated by analysing the differential effects of the countries' exports and imports and by postulating trans-logarithmic models that allow for non-linear effects of literacy levels and measures of openness. The main findings were that literacy rates affected growth rates in a quadratic manner and countries with higher literacy were more likely to benefit from globalization. Second, the model for growth rates showed non-linear and differential effects of the export/GDP and import/GDP ratios. Third, the models indicated that population health indicators such as life expectancy were important predictors of GDP growth rates. Fourth, models for poverty measures showed that poverty was not directly affected by globalization indicators. Finally, the model for Gini coefficients indicated significant effects of 'medium' and 'high' skilled labour work force, with higher proportions of high-skilled labour implying greater inequality.
Topic:
Development, Education, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty

14. Globalization and Smallholders: The Adoption, Diffusion, and Welfare Impact of Non-traditional Export Crops in Guatemala

Author:
Benjamin Davis, Calogero Carletto, Angeli Kirk, and Paul Winters
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper uses a duration analysis based on adoption data spanning over 25 years from six communities in the Central Highlands of Guatemala to explore how household characteristics and external trends play into both the adoption and diffusion processes of non-traditional exports among smallholders. Adoption was initially widespread and rapid, which led NTX to be hailed as a pro-poor success, reaching all but the smallest landholders. However, over time more than two-thirds of the adopters eventually dropped out from NTX production. Based on the analysis, NTX production.
Topic:
Agriculture and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South America, Yugoslavia, and Tunisia

15. Measuring the Competitive Threat from China

Author:
Rhys Jenkins
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

16. The Optimal Distance to Port for Exporting Firms

Author:
Thomas Gries, Wim Naudé, and Marianne Matthee
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Success in international trade depends, amongst other things, on distance from markets. Most new economic geography models focus on the distance between countries. In contrast much less theorizing and empirical analysis have focused on how distances within a country—for instance due to the location behaviour of exporting firms—matter to international trade. In this paper we contribute to the literature on the latter by offering a theoretical model to explain the optimal distance that an export-oriented firm would locate from a port. We present empirical evidence from South Africa in support of the model.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

17. Ownership Reform, Foreign Competition, and Efficiency of Chinese Commercial Banks: A Non-Parametric Approach

Author:
Shujie Yao, Zhongwei Han, and Genfu Feng
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the pressure for bank reforms has mounted as China ought to fully open up its financial market to foreign competition by 2006. Efficiency is key for domestic banks to survive in a liberalised environment, but it appears that the last hope for raising bank efficiency is through ownership reform. Whether ownership reform and foreign competition can solve China's banking problem remains to be tested. This paper aims to answer this question through using a non-parametric approach to analyse the efficiency changes of 15 large commercial banks during 1998-2005. We find that ownership reform and foreign competition have forced the Chinese commercial banks to improve performance, as their total factor productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per annum. This coincides with the recent bullish Chinese stock markets led by three listed state-owned commercial banks. Despite such encouraging results, we remain cautious about the future of the Chinese banks, as the good results may have been artificially created with massive government support and the fundamentals of the banks may be still weak.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

18. The Rise of the Southern Economies: Implications for the WTO-Multilateral Trading System

Author:
Silvia Nenci
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of the emerging southern economies – China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) – as both economic and political actors, is having significant and far-reaching impact on the world economy. Notwithstanding the increasing amount of study and research, there are still important knowledge-gaps with respect to a range of likely consequences of the dynamism of the Southern Economies. One of these gaps concerns the implications for the WTO-multilateral trading system. The present paper proposes a review of the southern participation in the multilateral integration process and suggests a methodology to assess the impact of CIBS' rise on the future of the WTO system. Through the analysis of the trajectories of 'impact' of the trade channel, the paper draws some suggestive remarks.
Topic:
International Organization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

19. Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand

20. Trade Liberalization and the Self-employed in Mexico

Author:
Gurleen K. Popli
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper I examine the trend in income inequality and poverty among the selfemployed workers in Mexico over the last two decades (1984–2002). This is the period over which Mexico opened its economy to the global market through trade and investment liberalization. For the first decade following the liberalization, inequality and poverty among the self-employed increased; as the economy stabilized and the country saw economic growth inequality started to go down, but poverty kept increasing. To understand the changes in inequality and poverty I decompose the inequality and poverty indices into within and between group components. Rising returns to skilled labour, regional differences in impact of liberalization and sectoral shifts in employment are important factors in explaining the trends in both inequality and poverty.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
Mexico