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421. Inconsistency in Savings Pattern: Is there an Endogeneity Bias?

Author:
Inna Verbina
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Traditionally, the difference between income and expenditure reported in household surveys is used for estimation of savings at the household level. However, persistent deviation in consumption–income ratios by household income brackets raises questions about both the quality of data and the estimation method employed. This paper provides statistical evidence to accentuate the endogeneity bias, which is connected with the choice of welfare proxy for ranking process, in savings estimates by income groups. Also, two different estimators for households spending behaviour are discussed and the statistical properties of their difference are derived by the delta method.
Topic:
Economics

422. 'Looking at the Other Side of the Coin': The Relationship between Classical Growth and Early Development Theories

Author:
Maiju Perälä
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper extends the history of thought narrative on Allyn Young to recognize the close relationship that the classical growth theory has with the early development theory, as Young's externalities-fuelled, cumulative growth process influenced the theoretical thought of the early development theory pioneers, Paul Rosenstein-Rodan and Ragnar Nurkse. The conditions that prevent the development of underdeveloped regions, indivisibilities and inelasticities of supplies and demands, represent the breakdown of the conditions that Young highlights as necessary for self-sustaining growth to occur. Hence, Young's cumulative growth process underlies the view of these early development theorists, though their focus is on the malfunctioning and restarting of this process.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty

423. Persistence of Underdevelopment: Does the Type of Natural Resource Endowment Matter?

Author:
Maiju Perälä
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines growth successes and failures across countries and notes the latter's perplexing predominance among ex ante low-income economies. An explanation for this persistence of underdevelopment is proposed through an empirical investigation that brings forth evidence on the importance of natural resource endowment type on growth or, more appropriately, lack of it. The results show that, in the absence of social cohesion, the nature of natural resource abundance bears great significance as a natural resource endowment characterized by oil and/or mineral resources is more negatively correlated with growth than a resource endowment that is agricultural. The robustness of this result is tested across a number of growth regression specifications within the literature.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and Poverty

424. A Tale of Two Countries: Poverty among Immigrants in Denmark and Sweden since 1984

Author:
Kræn Blume, Björn Gustafsson, Peder Pedersen, and Mette Verner
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper focuses on the problems of low income among immigrants, analysed by using comparable panel datasets for two Scandinavian welfare states. After a brief survey of a few earlier studies on immigrant poverty, we present Denmark and Sweden as interesting cases for comparative research. Cyclical profiles have been very different since the 1980s and both countries have experienced considerable differences with regard to the number and composition of immigrants from the less developed countries. Poverty rates, analysed relative to different background factors, are fairly high, in particular when considering the welfare state background of Denmark and Sweden. A number of differences are found in spite of the institutional similarities between the two countries.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Political Economy, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Denmark and Sweden

425. Economic Integration and Migration: The Mexico-US Case

Author:
Philip Martin
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explains the evolution and effects of Mexico-US migration, and highlights the NAFTA approach to economic integration, viz., free up trade and investment while stepping up efforts to prevent unauthorized migration. The European Union approach is different: provide aid first, and later free up trade and migration in the expectation that moves toward convergence will ensure minimal migration because trade has become a substitute for migration. The paper concludes that NAFTA will reduce unwanted Mexico-US migration in the medium to long term, and that different initial conditions in Europe mean that there will be relatively little east-west migration when nationals of new entrant EU members achieve freedom of movement.
Topic:
Economics and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Mexico

426. Iraqi Forced Migrants in Jordan: Conditions, Religious Networks, and the Smuggling Process

Author:
Geraldine Chatelard
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper describes and analyses the case of Iraqis who, in the 1990s, have arrived in Jordan as forced migrants, and have continued to Western Europe or Australia as asylum migrants. The argument put forth is that trends of asylum migration cannot be fully understood without looking at a set of interrelated issues in the countries of first reception of the forced migrants: reception standards, the migrants' poor socioeconomic conditions, further violations of their human rights, but also the functioning of the migrants' social networks and of human smuggling rings.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Australia, Jordan, and Western Europe

427. Aid, Debt Burden and Government Fiscal Behaviour: A New Model Applied to Côte d'Ivoire

Author:
Mark McGillivray and Bazoumana Ouattara
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of foreign aid on public sector fiscal behaviour in Côte d'Ivoire. A special interest is the relationship between aid, debt servicing and debt, given that Côte d'Ivoire is a highly indebted country. The theoretical model employed differs from those of previous studies by highlighting the interaction between debt servicing and the other fiscal variables. This model is estimated using 1975–99 time series data. Key findings are that the bulk of aid is allocated to debt servicing and that aid is associated with increases in the level of public debt.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

428. OECD Domestic Support and Developing Countries

Author:
Betina Dimaranan, Thomas Hertel, and Roman Keeney
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
An AGE model with detailed farm supply and substitution relationships is used to analyze impacts of OECD domestic support reform on developing economy welfare. Stylized simulations indicate reforms best suited for reducing trade distortions with least impact on farm incomes. Comprehensive reforms result in welfare losses for LDCs and large declines in OECD farm incomes. Shifting from market price support to land-based payments designed to maintain farm incomes results in increased welfare for most developing countries. LDCs should focus on improved market access to OECD economies while permitting said economies to continue domestic support payments not linked to output/variable inputs.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

429. Trends in Asylum Migration to Industrialized Countries: 1990-2001

Author:
Stephen Castles and Sean Loughna
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to outline trends and patterns in movements of asylumseekers to Western so-called industrialized countries from 1990-2001. The paper begins by characterizing three distinct phases of asylum migration since the end of the Second World War. It then provides background material on global refugee and asylum movements, using statistics from UNHCR. The data for selected receiving countries and regions is discussed, followed by some remarks on changing routes used by asylumseekers. The selected countries and regions are Australia, Canada, the EU and the USA. Finally, we examine some of the causal factors behind asylum migration and attempt to identify their significance upon flows migration.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Human Welfare, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, and Australia

430. The Causal Relationship between Information and Communication Technology and Foreign Direct Investment

Author:
Almas Heshmati, Rohieh Gholami, and Sang-Yong Tom Lee
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and foreign direct investment (FDI), with reference to its implications on economic growth. For the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with heterogeneous economics development for the period 1976–99. The results of unit roots and Johansen co-integration tests indicate variations in degrees of integration among the sample countries. Our causality test results suggest that there is a causal relationship from ICT to FDI interpreted as the higher level of ICT investment leads to increased inflow of FDI. ICT contributes to economic growth indirectly by attracting more foreign direct investment. In developed countries there already exist a build up ICT capacity which causes inflow of FDI, while in developing countries ICT capacity must be build up to attract FDI. The inflow of FDI causes further increases in ICT investment and capacity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Political Economy