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1. Washington's and Taiwan's Diverging Interests Doesn't Make War Imminent

Author:
Hargisl Shirley Martey
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
We are a month from the Taiwan 2024 election that sent shockwaves around the world. President-elect, Lai Ching-te (賴清德), dared to utter the world ‘independence” in a strike against the longstanding One China Policy (一个中国政策) in his successful campaign to lead the nation. The election was important enough for an increasingly assertive President Xi Jinping (习近平出席) to try (and fail) to influence the election’s outcome. Xi has been rattling cages for the last several years and has made no secret of his desire to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s thumb without explicitly ruling out the use of force. Meanwhile, a busy President Biden has had his hands full keeping allies committed to Ukraine, battling Putin-sympathetic members of Congress, while also dealing with cascading crises in Israel and the Middle East. With that as our backdrop, does Lai’s election, Xi’s frustration, and Biden’s preoccupation mean we are closer to conflict in the Taiwan Strait? In this brief analysis we argue that at present the answer is “no.” And we make this call by looking at the vantage points and early actions of each country. For America, the Taiwan election has put the country on alert. For Taiwan, domestic concerns are mainly driving voters – not cross-Strait policy. For the People’s Republic of China (PRC; 中华人民共和国), ignore the rhetoric because they’ve followed their Taiwan election disappointment by returning to their standard playbook.1 But stay tuned…. perhaps they’re saving the fireworks for Lai’s May 20 inauguration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Politics, Elections, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, North America, and United States of America

2. Making the Case: The President's Budget is a Step in the Right Direction

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Ben Freeman
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The President's proposed defense budget has been criticized for shrinking the military at a time when the world is getting more dangerous. This argument is simply wrong. In fact, the President's budget strengthens American security by: Providing more military funding than Ronald Reagan ever did. Investing in 21st century weapons, not Cold War relics. Cutting the Pentagon bureaucracy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Budget
Political Geography:
America and North America

3. Making the Case: Stopping Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Aki Peritz
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The U.S. is currently leading a multinational effort to squeeze Iran and force them to give up its weapons program. Here's how to make the case for that approach and why it makes sense: A nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable. Sanctions are working—they are wrecking the Iranian economy—but they need more time to have their full impact. We can blunt Iran's capabilities by strengthening our allies' missile defense systems. Military strikes now could exacerbate the problem, but all options must remain on the table.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and North America

4. Making the Case: What is America's Best Bad Option in Syria?

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Aki Peritz
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
President Obama drew a "red line" for Syria: if the Assad regime used its chemical weapons, such a move would "change [the] calculus" for an American response. As the UN and others investigate whether Assad has indeed crossed that red line, the U.S. must consider its options—because a failure to act could undermine our credibility. But "further action" is a broad category in the Syrian conflict. Our options range from increasing non-lethal aid to deploying troops in Syria. In this guide to the debate, we provide answers to six key questions: What are America's security interests in Syria? Which rebel groups should we support? What are Syria's military capabilities? What is the status of Syria's chemical weapons? What are the international community's options? What are America's options?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, Syria, and North America

5. Making the Case: Think Twice Before Punishing Egypt

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Aki Peritz
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Despite serious, continuing concerns with the Egyptian government—including a return to authoritarianism and the president's use of anti-Semitic slurs—America should not gut its foreign aid to Cairo. Here's how to make the case against punishing the Egyptian government and in favor of continuing U.S. assistance: Egypt plays a critical role in the region and in America's security interests there. U.S. businesses get a return when we provide aid to Egypt. The bulk of our aid goes to the most stable pillar of secular Egyptian society: the military. Things could get much, much worse in Egypt—and for us.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Struggle, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
America, Middle East, North America, and Egypt

6. A Path Forward with Iran: Pressure through Engagement

Author:
Andy Johnson and Kyle Spector
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
If the Afghanistan-Pakistan region is the most dangerous place in the world at the moment, Afghanistan's neighbor to the West, Iran, is making a strong play for number two. It is alarming the world community, rattling its saber loudly at Israel and the West, and brutally suppressing internal dissent. Iran's regime, yet again, is showing why it remains a major threat to America n national security interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, America, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

7. Disrupting, Dismantling and Defeating Terrorism 2.0

Author:
Andy Johnson
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Third Way's National Security Program is launching a Defeating Terrorism Initiative to help US policymakers better understand and confront the threat posed by al Qaeda and other violent extremist organizations. The Defeating Terrorism Initiative will analyze in a series of products what is fueling the continued recruitment and radicalization of terrorists, how the battlefield—both geographical and ideological—is fluid and shifting, and what tools should be brought to bear to attack the root causes of the threat and halt the spread of violent extremism. In doing so, Third Way will provide near- and long-term policy recommendations for defeating terrorism that cover the military-intelligence-diplomatic spectrum and bridge the foreign-domestic divide. The first of these products—"Disrupting, Dismantling and Defeating Terrorism 2.0"— offers a policy framework for how the US can build on and broaden the disrupt, dismantle and defeat strategy that President Obama has begun in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States

8. Reforming Foreign Security Training to Help Defeat Terrorism

Author:
Andy Johnson and Scott Payne
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
A key component of US strategy to defeat global terrorist groups like al Qaeda is denying them the physical space to operate with impunity. The ability of the US and our allies to train foreign military and security forces can be an effective tool in both preventing terrorists from establishing a foothold in vulnerable states and empowering foreign partners to move against terrorists where they exist today. Yet the current array of US training programs is fragmented, ad hoc, and underfunded. Moreover, overreliance on contractors to provide large scale military and police training in Iraq and Afghanistan, at a collective cost of $48 billion, has led to findings of poor performance, wasteful spending, weak oversight and insufficient accountability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and North America

9. Closing the Mission Gap: Effectively Communicating the President's New Afghanistan Strategy

Author:
Andy Johnson, Kyle Spector, Scott Payne, and Matt Bennett
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Speaking at West Point, President Obama clarified America's mission in Afghanistan and announced a new strategy designed to defeat al Qaeda, respond to the security threat posed by chaos in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, and set a clear path for turning the war over to the Afghans. Third Way believes that the President's approach is worthy of strong support from Congress and other leaders.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and North America

10. Beyond Bush: A New Strategy of Constriction to Defeat Al Qaeda and its Allies

Author:
Matt Bennett and Sharon Burke
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Five years after President George Bush declared that America would act decisively to "rid the world of evil," terrorism continues to pose an urgent threat to our national security. In fact, an overwhelming majority of national security experts believe that the United States is actually losing the "war on terror."
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States and America