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21. Commentaries: The U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2015: Excerpts, Commentaries, And Response

Author:
Ellen Laipson, Michael A. Ledeen, Michael J. White, John Gannon, Eugene J. Carroll, Richard P. Cincotta, Johanna Mendelson Forman, Michael Hanssler, Liliana Hisas, Leslie Johnston, Gavin Kitchingham, Gayl D. Ness, David Rejeski, Ervin J. Rokke, Judith Shapiro, Aleksei V. Yablokov, and Arno Weinmann
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
In January 2001, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), a center within the Central Intelligence Agency that provides the agency's director with mid- and long-term strategic thinking and direction, published Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernmental Experts. This unclassified and public report, which expanded on the NIC's previous effort Global Trends 2010, takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States

22. Environmental Stress and Human Security in Northern Pakistan

Author:
Richard A. Matthew
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Environmental and social factors are generating high levels of conflict and insecurity in Northern Pakistan. Several factors make this case an important subject for analysis and discussion: (a) the strategic location of the region; (b) the potential for far-reaching and even global consequences should conflict spill across the borders and into countries such as Afghanistan and India; and (c) the similarities between this case and many others in the world. The article concludes with policy suggestions for both domestic and foreign parties concerned about the situation.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India

23. Conflict: A Cause and Effect of Hunger

Author:
Marc J. Cohen, Ellen Messer, and Thomas Marchione
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Ensuring food security—especially in Africa—depends on breaking cycles of hunger and conflict. Whether one believes that (a) environmental scarcities (including food insecurity) can cause conflict, or (b) that conflict is primarily caused by political factors, it is indisputable that access to food is always disrupted by conflict. Much has been written about the linkages between environmental scarcities, hunger, and conflict. This article (a) highlights certain gaps in the information about the steps that lead from hunger to conflict, and then (b) suggests policies and actions to break these connections.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Africa

24. Dilemmas For Conservation In The Brazilian Amazon

Author:
Margaret E. Keck
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
More than a decade after images of flames devouring the rainforest focused international attention on the Brazilian Amazon, the fires continue to burn. This article traces the history of conservation efforts in the Brazilian Amazon and then argues that repeated failure to understand or accommodate the political factors at work in the Amazon undermines environmentalists' efforts to protect the rainforest.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Brazil

25. Brazil's SIVAM: As It Monitors The Amazon, Will It Fulfill Its Human Security Promise?

Author:
Thomaz Guedes da Costa
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
As Brazil implements its System for Vigilance of the Amazon (SIVAM), the country's leadership continues to tout the system as a major effort towards achieving its national security objectives—especially (a) preserving the countr y's sovereignty over its territories in that tropical forest region; (b) assisting in Amazon law enforcement, particularly in deterring illegal flights associated with contraband and narco-trafficking; and (c) providing environmental information aimed at promoting sustainable development and the preservation of natural habitats in the Amazon. But while official arguments promise SIVAM will contribute to all three objectives, the lack of: (a) transparency in the program's development and implementation; and (b) greater participation by non-official organizations in how SIVAM will gather, process, and disseminate information threatens the environmental and human security value of the system.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Brazil

26. Commentary: Trade and the Environment After Seattle–Perspectives From The Wilson Center

Author:
William M. Daley, Andrea Durbin, Mikhail Gorbachev, Martin Albrow, Stacy D. Vandeever, Anju Sharma, Stephen Clarkson, Kent Hughes, and Tamar Gutner
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Free trade, seen by many as the engine of world economic growth, has once again become the subject of bitter dispute. Nowhere was this more evident than at the meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Seattle at the end of 1999. There, environmentalists joined with trade unionists and advocates for developing countries in staging mass protests. These diverse groups claimed the WTO is unrepresentative and undemocratic, overlooking environmental interests and those of the world's poor in favor of big business. Inside the negotiating halls, the United States and the European Union clashed over agricultural subsidies and genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Developing country representatives complained that they remained marginalized in the official talks.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

27. Exploring Capacity for Integration: University of Michigan Population-Environment Fellows Programs Impact Assessment Project

Author:
Denise Caudill
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Since 1993, the University of Michigan Population-Environment Fellows Programs (PEFP) has linked the population and environment sectors of development both at the field level and in policy analysis. The PEFP and Denise Caudill of World Neighbors launched the Impact Assessment Project to develop a framework for assessing an integrated program. This article addresses project findings, including the successes, constraints, and obstacles of integrated/linked programs, as well as provides field examples from Ecuador and Madagascar. Denise Caudill, the coordinator for this project, offers lessons on the implications of implementing integrated/linked programs from the community to the national, regional, and international levels.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Madagascar

28. Oiling the Friction: Environmental Conflict Management in the Niger Delta, Nigeria

Author:
Okechukwu Ibeanu
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The Niger Delta, a sensitive ecosystem rich in biodiversity, has witnessed considerable violence as a result of the tense relationship among oil companies, the Nigerian state, and oil-bearing communities. Environmental damage from the extraction and movement of fossil fuels is a central point of dispute among the parties while the precise extent of ecological damage remains unknown. Drawing on numerous interviews while living and working in the Niger Delta, Dr. Okechukwu Ibeanu analyzes the management of conflicts surrounding petroleum production in the region, including the role of state violence and contradictory perceptions of security held by Delta communities and the oil companies and their partners in the Nigerian federal government.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Nigeria

29. Human Population and Environmental Stresses in the Twenty-first Century

Author:
Richard E. Benedick
Publication Date:
06-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Human populations have put pressure on their natural surroundings throughout history. Yet the world is now facing truly global environmental challenges and rapid population growth in the final half of the twentieth century is a critical component to understanding these phenomena. In his article, Ambassador Richard Benedick examines a host of population dynamics and their complex interlinkages with three representative environmental issue areas: forests, freshwater resources, and climate change. These connections raise the importance of meeting the commitments made at the 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development. Benedick maintains that investments in measures to slow the rate of population growth-and thereby to reach a stable population earlier, and at lower levels, than under current trends-would significantly reinforce efforts to address the environmental challenges of the century ahead, and considerably lower the cost of such efforts.
Topic:
Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Central America

30. Urban Violence in São Paulo

Author:
Nancy Cardia
Publication Date:
03-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Today homicide is the highest cause of death of young people in Brazil. Nancy Cardia, senior researcher at the University of São Paulo's Center for the Study of Violence, examines urban violence in São Paulo arguing that violence has become a major public health problem.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Human Welfare, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
South America and Latin America