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81. Hezbollah's Limited Options After Israeli Strike

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 18, six senior members of the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah and a commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed while visiting Quneitra in the Syrian Golan Heights, reportedly by an Israeli missile. The attack came just days after Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened to deploy troops across the border into the Galilee in retaliation for repeated Israeli strikes against militia targets in Syria. In the past, the audacious timing and resultant high-profile casualties would have prompted significant and unambiguous Hezbollah military retribution. While the group may eventually retaliate -- anonymous Hezbollah officials in Lebanon say it is "inevitable" -- its ongoing military operations in Syria and the evolving sectarian dynamic in Lebanon may constrain its actions. The pressure to respond is great, but the last thing Hezbollah needs right now is an escalation with Israel that devolves to war.
Political Geography:
Israel, Lebanon, and Syria

82. The ISIS Fight and the State of the Union Address

Author:
David Pollock, Robert Satloff, Andrew J. Tabler, and James F. Jeffrey
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In last night's State of the Union speech, President Obama had the opportunity to educate the American people on the unique challenges posed by the "Islamic State"/ISIS, as well as the tough choices the United States and others will have to make as they deal with this phenomenon. Instead, he cited the issue only in passing, reiterating his "degrade and ultimately destroy" commitment without giving any idea what the next steps are beyond mentioning the increasingly risible effort to arm a Syrian opposition on slow simmer (see PolicyWatch 2357, "Train and Equip Not Enough for U.S.-Backed Syrian Rebels"), and the passing of a Congressional resolution to authorize the use of force against ISIS. This was in contrast to the extensive airtime he dedicated to touting his initiative on Cuba, which -- regardless of one's views on that decision -- is an almost irrelevant issue given the various crises occurring around the globe.
Political Geography:
United States

83. Train and Equip Not Enough for U.S.-Backed Syrian Rebels

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The administration needs to make sure that its imminent creation of a new rebel force is conducted with clear political goals, a concrete military strategy, and due consideration of likely operational contingencies.
Political Geography:
United States

84. Explaining the Turkish Military's Opposition to Combating ISIS

Author:
Ed Stafford
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In all the discussions about Turkey not being particularly supportive to the coalition fighting the "Islamic State"/ISIS, little has been said about the military's role in shaping the government's policy. In part this reflects the ruling Justice and Development Party's diminution of the military's role in policy formulation since 2002, and the ascendancy of the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) for the implementation of Syria policy. But there are other reasons for the military's reluctance to combat ISIS, some of which have existed for decades and are more deeply rooted than the recent resentment over political emasculation of the military leadership. These views are also common among the politically active class beyond the AKP ruling elites.
Political Geography:
Syria

85. Operation Inherent Resolve: An Interim Assessment

Author:
Scott A. Vickery
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Coalition airstrikes in Iraq and Syria have had clear benefits, but a broader campaign involving more intelligence and targeting assistance on the ground is required to reap the full strategic benefits of turning back ISIS.
Political Geography:
Iraq and Syria

86. The Palestinians Go to the ICC: Policy Implications

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although the prospect of the ICC actually prosecuting Israeli officials is uncertain at best, the PA has torpedoed any chances for near-term diplomacy merely by opening that door, and perhaps invited U.S. financial countermeasures as well.
Political Geography:
United States and Palestine

87. Kataib al-Imam Ali: Portrait of an Iraqi Shiite Militant Group Fighting ISIS

Author:
Matthew Levitt and Phillip Smyth
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although Iran's proxies are fighting ISIS in parallel with the U.S.-led effort, their actions and radical Shiite agendas are diametrically opposed to the goal of building inclusive governments and societies in Iraq and Syria.
Political Geography:
Iraq and Syria

88. U.S.-Israel Relations: A Changing Landscape?

Author:
Jonathan Rynhold
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 23, Jonathan Rynhold and Elliott Abrams addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Rynhold is a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA), director of the Argov Center for the Study of Israel and the Jewish People, and author of the just-released book The Arab-Israel Conflict in American Political Culture (Cambridge University Press). Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and former deputy national security advisor in the George W. Bush administration. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:
United States, America, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

89. Rehabilitation and Reintegration of Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters

Author:
Matthew Levitt, Gilles de Kerchove, Jacob Bundsgaard, and Maj. Gen. Doug Stone
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On the margins of the White House Summit on Countering Violent Extremism (CVE), global leaders in efforts to rehabilitate radicalized fighters gathered at the Institute to share their insights into what works -- and what doesn't. On February 20, Gilles de Kerchove, Jacob Bundsgaard, Doug Stone, and Matthew Levitt addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Kerchove is the European Union Counterterrorism Coordinator. Bundsgaard is Lord Mayor of Aarhus, Denmark, and a prominent player in the city's widely known jihadist rehabilitation program. Stone, a retired Marine major general, oversaw all theatre interrogation and detention in Iraq during the post- 2006 surge; he now works for the UN and helped develop the Rome Memorandum, the seminal best-practices compendium for rehabilitation and reintegration of violent extremist offenders. Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Denmark, and Rome

90. Salafism in Lebanon

Author:
Robert Rabil
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 13, Robert Rabil addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Dr. Rabil is a professor of Middle East studies in Florida Atlantic University's Department of Political Science and the Lifelong Learning Society (LLS) Distinguished Professor of Current Events. He is the author of Salafism in Lebanon (Georgetown University Press, October 2014). The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Lebanon, and Florida