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51. Turkey's Economic Future and the AKP

Author:
Meral Varis Kiefer
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 30, 2007, the Turkish stock market slumped and the value of the lira dropped following a massive demonstration in Istanbul against the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, coupled with a statement by the military voicing support for secularism. Previously, the comparatively healthy Turkish economy had boosted the chances that the AKP, rooted in the country's Islamist movement, would achieve further electoral victories this year. On April 24, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan named Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as his party's candidate for president -- a legislatively elected post. In the April 27 parliamentary session, however, the secular opposition boycotted the vote, and the AKP failed to muster the required two-thirds majority. The Turkish constitutional court subsequently annulled the vote, and the status of the presidential election is now uncertain. In the meantime, the parliament has moved legislative elections up from November to July 22.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

52. Brazilian Counterterrorism Efforts: Legislative Progress, But Little Action on the Ground

Author:
David Jacobson and Matther Levitt
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In March, Brazilian authorities drafted a new antiterrorism law instituting stiff penalties for a variety of violent acts committed by both individuals and organizations. The new legislation, expected to pass Brazil's congress in a modified form, will likely be used to target criminal gangs from Brazil's indigent favela neighborhoods, not Middle Eastern terrorist groups operating in the Argentina-Brazil-Paraguay Tri-Border Area (TBA). Brazil denies that illegal terrorist activities are being conducted in the TBA, and it does not regard groups like Hizballah or Hamas as terrorist organizations. Much of the legal foundation needed to successfully combat international terrorism is already in place in Brazil, but the government has not demonstrated the will to confront the problem.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

53. The Riyadh Arab Summit: Multiple Issues and High Expectations

Author:
Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 28, the Arab League will convene the annual summit of its twenty-two member states in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Despite a record of disunity and inconclusiveness, this annual meeting of Arab leaders remains the subject of intense interest in the region. Rising Sunni-Shiite tensions, talk of a peace opening with Israel, and developments in Iraq, the Palestinian Authority (PA), and Lebanon have generated more attention for this year's summit than usual.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq, Palestine, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Riyadh

54. Assessing the New Palestinian Unity Government: A Step Forward or Back?

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 17, the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) approved the formation of a Hamas-Fatah national unity government by an 83–3 margin. This culminated a process that began in early February with the Mecca accord facilitated by Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah. Many governments have withheld comment since that accord. One reason for their relative silence is reluctance to criticize a project associated with King Abdullah, who is emerging as a leading force in the Arab world and a linchpin of U.S. efforts to isolate Iran. Another is bated hope that the new government guidelines will be a marked improvement over those of the current Hamas government. Since Hamas's victory in January 2006 parliamentary elections, the focus has been on three principles proposed by the Quartet (the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the UN): (1) recognition of Israel, (2) disavowal of violence, and (3) adherence to past written commitments.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

55. U.S.-Designated Hamas Front Gets Symbolic Win in France

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 8, 2007, a French court ordered the Wiesenthal Center's director for international relations in Paris to pay a symbolic €1 fine in a defamation suit brought by a U.S.-designated Hamas front organization. The Comité de Bienfaisance et de Secours aux Palestiniens (Committee for Welfare and Aid to the Palestinians) (CBSP) charged that it had been defamed by allegations that it finances terrorism and raises funds to support the families of suicide bombers recruited by Hamas. Atlhough the French court acknowledged that the 150 exhibits submitted by the defense "indeed constituted an impressive body of evidence," it nonetheless issued a symbolic ruling in favor of the plaintiff.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Paris, and France

56. Saudi-Iranian Mediation on Hizballah: Will a Lebanon Deal Come at Syria's Expense?

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 20, the Lebanese cabinet—with a Hizballah-led opposition boycott—extended the term of the UN commission investigating the February 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. While the commission's work can now continue for as long as one more year, any future decision about organizing an international tribunal to try those indicted for the murder remains hostage to a vote—requiring the opposition's assent—in the paralyzed Lebanese parliament. Meanwhile, Hizballah continues to press its demand for increased political power within a “national unity” government, threatening civil disobedience should its demands not be met.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

57. Hamas's Victory: From Gaza to Mecca

Author:
Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As recently as December, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas refused to back a proposal for a unity government offered by Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) member and head of the Independent Palestine list Mustafa Barghouti. That deal was based on the concept of a technocratic compromise under which Hamas officials would not have held the prime ministership or led any ministries. Yet under the terms of the February 8 Mecca accord, the current prime minister, Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh, will stay on as head of the next government, and the only portfolios Hamas members specifically will not hold are the finance, foreign affairs, and interior ministries, which will be headed by independents acceptable to both sides. The key question then is why Fatah settled for a unity agreement in February that provided it far less gains than previous unity proposals rejected by Abbas.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Mecca

58. Prosecuting Terrorism Supporters: Lessons from a Recent Verdict

Author:
Matt Levitt
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 1, after fourteen days of deliberation, a Chicago jury acquitted Muhammad Salah and Abdulhalim Ashqar of charges that they were involved in a racketeering conspiracy by financing and supporting Hamas terrorist activities in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The two were accused of laundering funds, facilitating communications, and providing recruits for Hamas, but were convicted only on minor charges of obstruction of justice and, in Ashqar's case, criminal contempt. Like the 2005 prosecution of Sami al-Arian and several other Palestinian Islamic Jihad supporters in Tampa, Florida (where the jury acquitted the defendants of most charges and deadlocked on others), the case highlights the difficulty of prosecuting individuals for providing support to terrorist groups under the cover of humanitarian or political activity.
Topic:
Economics, Government, International Law, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Palestine and Chicago

59. Hamas vs. Fatah: Is Confrontation Inevitable?

Author:
Mohammad Yaghi, Dennis Ross, and Ghaith al-Omari
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
There are three possibilities for the future of the troubled Hamas-Fatah relationship. The first is the default option, involving perpetual tension with progressively worsening violence—and no decisive victor. Each side mistakenly believes that it can swiftly defeat the other. Hamas believes it can win through continued rearmament and resistance, and that its political message resonates with its constituency. Its own efforts—along with Hizballah's perceived victory in summer 2006—have lent Hamas confidence in its current footing. For its part, Fatah believes it has historical claim to both power and representation, and that its rule of the Palestinian Authority (PA), the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and the governmental security apparatus are ingredients of a decisive victory, regardless of the continuing arms race.
Topic:
Government, Peace Studies, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East

60. Iran Feels the Heat: International Pressure Emboldens Tehran's Domestic Critics

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As international pressure on the Iranian government toughens, the Iranian regime is facing more fragmentation at home. In an unprecedented action against a sitting president, 150 of the 290 members of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) signed a letter blaming President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad for raging inflation and high unemployment, and criticizing his travel to Latin America at a time when he has not sent the Majlis a draft budget for the fiscal year that starts March 21. Under Iranian law, this letter constitutes the first step required if the Majlis wants to remove the president from office.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Latin America