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21. PolicyWatch #1372: Showdown between Hizballah and Beirut

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, the democratically elected, pro-Western Lebanese government took the bold and unprecedented decision to confront Hizballah. Since its election in 2005, the government had avoided direct conflict with the well-armed Shiite militant political party, but several of the organization's activities -- including apparent preparations for yet another war with Israel -- led the government to provoke a showdown. In response to a May 8 cabinet statement that focused on Hizballah's "attack on the sovereignty of the state," the Shiite organization took to the streets. In the ensuing violence -- the most intense since Lebanon's civil war -- Hizballah began occupying parts of Beirut, leaving the future of Lebanon in doubt.
Topic:
Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Beirut

22. PolicyWatch #1366: A Roadmap for the Foreign Terrorist Organizations List

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although the Foreign Terrorist Organizations list has a set of criteria for designating groups, there is little clarity in practice about the process for revocation. Even after organizations have renounced terrorism for many years, their designations persist without a clear explanation, and are based on the assumption that historical violence indicates future potential.
Topic:
Government and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

23. PolicyWatch #1363: Electoral and Social Tensions Spike in Egypt

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 8, Egypt held elections for nearly 53,000 municipal representatives. Not surprisingly, participation was abysmal: Egypt's ruling faction, the National Democratic Party (NDP), ran unopposed for more than 80 percent of the seats, while the Muslim Brotherhood -- the country's only real opposition party -- boycotted the contest in response to government harassment. Although the White House issued a statement expressing concern about "widespread electoral violations," these issues represent only a fraction of Egypt's domestic problems, which also include food shortages, labor unrest, and increasing Islamist social and political penetration. Complicating matters, these crises coincide with the first political transition in decades -- the impeding retirement of eighty-year-old President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled since 1981. Taken together, these developments raise the specter of instability for a key U.S. ally.
Topic:
Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and Egypt

24. PolicyWatch #1361: Who Won the Battle for Basra?

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The recent military offensive in Basra was the first sizeable operation in which Iraqi government forces took the initiative to pursue armed groups in one of the country's most politically charged regions. Although the operation was a military success, its political aftermath will be crucial for the survival of both Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government and Muqtada al-Sadr's militia.
Topic:
Government and War
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

25. PolicyWatch #1358: Kuwait's New Political Crisis: Can Democracy Trump Sectarianism?

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 19, Kuwaiti emir Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah dissolved the country's parliament and called for new elections to be held on May 17. This drastic step reflects two distinct sets of tensions, both of which Kuwait has overcome in the past: tensions between the executive branch and parliament, and tensions between fundamentalists from the Sunni majority and the Shiite minority. The conjunction of these divisions is unusual and poses a serious political test for this small but strategically vital state -- a nation that borders Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, pumps more oil than Iraq, and quietly hosts about 70,000 U.S. troops at any given moment. The political troubles have become all the more sensitive because many Kuwaitis suspect Iran of fomenting new sectarian strife within their borders.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East

26. PolicyWatch #1355: Will the Turkish Constitutional Court Ban the AKP?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, H. Akin Unver, and Hale Arifagaoglu
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 14, Turkey's chief prosecutor, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, filed a case with the country's Constitutional Court asking it to shut down the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and ban seventy-one of its members from seeking elected office for five years. He accused the party of spearheading "anti-secular activities" in violation of the Turkish constitution. Although the court's disposition is uncertain, the case is likely to strengthen the AKP regardless of the outcome.
Topic:
Civil Society, Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

27. PolicyWatch #1353: Fayad's Reform Plan: Difficulties and Political Implications

Author:
Mohammad Yaghi
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A month after visiting Washington, Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayad continues to face significant political, economic, and security challenges to his reform plan. Fatah, the ruling political party in the West Bank, has resisted many aspects of his agenda and is critical of his cabinet's composition and performance. And although Fayad has spearheaded several important initiatives, his plan is in jeopardy, and the Palestinian Authority (PA) is still far from representing a compelling alternative to Hamas. To make matters worse, the PA has received just $260 million out of the $7.7 billion pledged during the December international donors conference in Paris, leaving the prime minister with month-to-month uncertainty about fulfilling the PA's salary commitments.
Topic:
Government and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel

28. PolicyWatch #1342: Iran's Parliamentary Elections: Assured Victory for the Supreme Leader

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Iran's March 14 parliamentary elections approach, the prospects for the reformist/technocratic coalition are predictably bleak. Yet, President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad is expected to lose ground as well. Although his conservative critics are likely to pick up a significant number of seats, the big winner will be Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose role as arbiter and decisionmaker will be reinforced even more.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

29. PolicyWatch #1341: Pakistani Elections and the Middle East

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After a six-week delay following the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, Pakistanis will go to the polls on February 18 to elect a new National Assembly. Pakistan and Afghanistan are "where many of our most important interests intersect," as Director of National Intelligence J. Michael McConnell told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 5. Accordingly, the election results could affect the position of a key U.S. ally in the war on terror -- the increasingly unpopular President Pervez Musharraf.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Asia

30. PolicyWatch #1335: Kirkuk's Article 140: Expired or Not?

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Away from the headlines, Sunnis and Shiites are testing the waters of reconciliation in the Iraqi parliament with an agreement that may come at the expense of country's Kurdish population. The Kurdish political reaction to such an agreement could potentially exacerbate anti-Kurdish sentiment among many Arab parliamentarians, costing the Kurds some of the hard-earned political ground they have gained thus far.
Topic:
Government, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia