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2. Implications of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Stability of Iran and the Regional Situation
- Author:
- Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Iran’s official figures on cases and deaths from COVID-19 (the disease resulting from coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2) do not reflect the real scale of the pandemic in that country, which might be among the hardest hit in the world. The pandemic will deepen the economic crisis and disfunction of the state, becoming a challenge to Iran’s ruling elite. The regime might survive thanks to the security apparatus and, in parallel, continue its support of Shia militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and the Syrian government. Only the succession of power after Ali Khamenei will be the real test of the coherence of the Iranian elite, and in case of disruption, it might result in the collapse of Iran’s theocracy.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Health, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syrian Arab Republic
3. The Great Lockdown: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Economy
- Author:
- Damian Wnukowski and Marek Wasinski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The coronavirus pandemic and efforts to suppress it (the Great Lockdown) will lead to the collapse of the global economy. In the short term, the reduction in production and consumption in the countries most affected by the pandemic will lead to a global recession. In the long run, the crisis may result in a partial retreat from globalisation, higher indebtedness, and narrowing the differences in economic potential between the EU and the U.S., and China. A positive side effect may be the acceleration of the development of the digital economy, including the services market.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Global Financial Crisis, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
4. Israel and the COVID-19 Pandemic
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Israel took early preventive measures against the COVID-19 pandemic that contributed to low infection and mortality rates. This allowed lifting the restrictions and restarting the economy at the end of April. The cooperation undertaken with the Palestinian Authority helped limit the spread of COVID-19 across the Palestinian territories. The successful fight against the spread of the coronavirus in Israel has strengthened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but the newly earned support may be halted by the impending economic slowdown.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Coronavirus, and Pandemic
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
5. Political Tensions and the Failure to Curb COVID-19 in Brazil
- Author:
- Bartlomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The spread rate of COVID-19 in Brazil is increasing and the policies of the federal government, headed by President Jair Bolsonaro, do not contribute to a slowdown in the pandemic. Bolsonaro downplays the threat and rejects restrictive measures as he priori-tises support for the economy. He has clashed with state governors who introduced restrictions and with the Federal Supreme Court, which defended their autonomy. The deteriorating situation in Brazil amid the pandemic and political situation diminish Bolsonaro’s chances of re-election in 2022 and may strain his government’s relations with EU partners.
- Topic:
- Government, Health, Politics, Health Care Policy, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and Jair Bolsonaro
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America