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2. Implications of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Stability of Iran and the Regional Situation
- Author:
- Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Iran’s official figures on cases and deaths from COVID-19 (the disease resulting from coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2) do not reflect the real scale of the pandemic in that country, which might be among the hardest hit in the world. The pandemic will deepen the economic crisis and disfunction of the state, becoming a challenge to Iran’s ruling elite. The regime might survive thanks to the security apparatus and, in parallel, continue its support of Shia militias in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and the Syrian government. Only the succession of power after Ali Khamenei will be the real test of the coherence of the Iranian elite, and in case of disruption, it might result in the collapse of Iran’s theocracy.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Health, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syrian Arab Republic
3. Palestine in Russia’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia is strengthening its relations with both the Palestinian Authority leadership and Hamas in Gaza Strip. It is part of Russia’s consistent strategy towards the Middle East to build a network of influence among regional actors and boost its image as an attractive political partner. In developing relations with the Palestinians, Russia exploits Israel’s sensitivity to Russian activity in Syria, poor relations between Palestine and the U.S., and the deadlock in the peace process.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America
4. Turkey’s Interests in Idlib
- Author:
- Karol Wasilewski
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The agreement signed on 5 March between Russia and Turkey has halted the offensive by the Syrian army on Idlib and led to a new division of influence in the province. Both Turkey and Russia are using the truce to strengthen their military presence in this territory. The coronavirus pandemic may delay the resumption of fighting in Idlib, giving the EU time to prepare for a renewed escalation and attempts by Turkey to instrumentally use an exodus of Syrian refugees to exert pressure on the Union.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Syrian War, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Idlib
5. The Importance of Foreign Military Bases for Russia
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Outside its borders, Russia has military bases in the post-Soviet space and in Syria. The main goal is to increase Russian military security and political influence in countries in which these bases are located. Despite economic difficulties related to the drop in oil and gas prices and the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia will maintain its network of bases, which it considers an important element of influence.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Military Strategy, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Eurasia
6. The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Pandemic
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The fight against the spread of the coronavirus in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has forced cooperation between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, which were in conflict within the GCC. At the same time, the UAE took advantage of other countries’ need for support in countering COVID-19 to strengthen relations with China, Iran, and Syria, among others. The UAE’s activity emphasizes its ambition for domination of the region, which may lead to a new dispute within the GCC between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Gulf Nations
7. The Importance of the Western Balkans in China’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- China’s cooperation with the Western Balkans through the “17+1” format and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), among others, is primarily political. In the economic sphere, Chinese investments are to a large extent only declarations, and trade is marginal in comparison to cooperation with the EU or others. China’s goals are to gain political influence in future EU countries and limit their cooperation with the U.S. Competition with China in the region requires more intense EU-U.S. cooperation, made more difficult by the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Investment, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and Balkans
8. U.S. Policy in the Arctic
- Author:
- Paweł Markiewicz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Arctic has become another contested area between the U.S., Russia, and China. The region’s growing importance for global trade and American security means the U.S. goal is largely to maintain freedom of navigation in the Arctic. For this reason, the Trump administration strives to increase American capacities to operate in the Arctic. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will delay implementing these plans; nevertheless, they will be achieved in the long term and the U.S. will also expect support in the Arctic from NATO allies.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America
9. Changes in South Africa’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- May’s parliamentary elections in South Africa, a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), will change the directions of its foreign policy. The victory by the African National Congress (ANC) was made possible by the popularity of the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, who will emphasize the international dimension of policy. In his new term, he will focus on regaining the trust of foreign investors, strengthening the country’s pro-Western course, supporting multilateralism, and reform of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, International Law, Politics, Elections, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
10. Germany and the Three Seas Initiative
- Author:
- Tomasz Żornaczuk
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This year, Germany participated for the second time in a Three Seas Initiative (TSI) summit as an observer. Its participation is motivated by the desire to strengthen cooperation with Central European countries and reduce divisions in the EU. It also aims to limit U.S. economic ambitions in the region, with TSI a potential key vehicle for them. Germany’s efforts to gain membership should be seen as a foreign policy goal. Its success could contribute to influencing infrastructure priorities in Central Europe, if implemented under the TSI.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, North America, Central Europe, and United States of America
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