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61. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy

Author:
Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang

62. China Brief, Sars: Spreading Unrest

Author:
Willy Lam, William R. Hawkins, Harvey Stockwin, and Li Thian-hok
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome—the SARS virus—throughout China is a phenomenon that had previously been denied by authorities and had gone unreported. But the penetration of the disease is now being admitted publicly, and efforts to combat it have begun. While the immediate epidemic in Beijing appears to be in decline, the fear remains that the spread of SARS within China will still be difficult—and maybe impossible—to control, let alone to eliminate. World Health Organization (WHO) officials admit that what happens in China will “make or break” the course of the epidemic. China's neighbors, and particularly Hong Kong, worry that a failure to curtail the virus will inevitably result in a fresh round of crossborder infection, further intensifying the already grave economic impact of SARS on the region. At worst, a sustained epidemic could bring China's opening-up to the outside world to a screeching halt.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong

63. China Brief, Taiwan's presidential countdown: what does it mean for the united states?

Author:
Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, John Tkacik, and Jonathan Mirsky
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Could Taiwan's voters elect a pro-unification candidate in 2004? Can the challenger, Kuomintang chairman Lien Chan, put together an electoral consensus of ethnic mainlanders, Hakkas and ethnic Taiwanese investors in China that will begin the process of moving Taiwan into the embrace of the People's Republic of China? The polls indicate it could be a fifty-fifty proposition, especially if the campaign's focus is the economy—not national identity. Washington should begin to consider its substantial strategic stake in Taiwan, and rethink the message that its diplomats in Taipei are sending Taiwan's public.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

64. China Brief, New Disease, New Leaders, Same Old Regime

Author:
Willy Lam, Harvey Stockwin, Gordon G. Chang, and Richard D. Fisher
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
An epidemic, spread by official deception and indifference, is afflicting the Chinese people. What does this disease mean for the People's Republic of China?
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

65. China Brief, Beijing studies the U.S. war in Iraq

Author:
Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Wangchuk Meston
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Chinese strategic and military experts are scrutinizing the U.S. war in Iraq, and for several reasons. First, if American and British forces become bogged down in their effort to liquidate the regime of Saddam Hussein, then it is much less likely that Washington will soon target other rogue regimes with weapons of mass destruction, such as North Korea, a Chinese ally.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, America, Washington, Israel, and North Korea

66. China Brief, National People's Congress: Popularity and power

Author:
Willy Lam, Harvey Stockwin, Gordon G. Chang, and M. D. Nalapat
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Newly elected President Hu Jintao and his allies should take heart from the results of the recently concluded First Session of the Tenth National People's Congress (NPC).
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

67. China Brief, Osama bin Laden in China

Author:
Willy Lam, Ahmad Lutfi, Gordon G. Chang, and Richard D. Jr. Fisher
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing often downplays the size of its Xinjiang problem for fear of exposing the difficulties it faces containing the “cancer of terrorism.” Since September 11, 2001, Beijing has been forced to reverse this policy due to repeated terrorist attacks. The most recent of these took place on February 25, 2003, when two bombs ripped through two of Beijing's most prestigious universities. The blasts shattered Beijing's long-held claim that it has been winning its war on terror.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Beijing

68. China Brief, Beijing: blockade buster?

Author:
Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, William C. Triplett, and Dr. Gulshan Dietl
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Will Kim Jong Il just slam down the phone on China's president, Jiang Zemin? That's what Beijing wants us to think. “If Kim tells Jiang he is going to test a nuclear weapon unless Jiang gives him more aid, what do we do? We give him more aid. We don't have a choice,” says one Chinese analyst who has dealt with Pyongyang. “We have some influence, but we don't have the kind of relationship where we can tell Kim what to do. If we tell him to do something, he doesn't listen. If we threaten him, he listens even less. If Jiang called him, he might hang up.”
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

69. China Brief, China's 7-percent solution

Author:
James E. Auer, Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Holmes Liao
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
“If we didn't have China I would be suicidal,” chief Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach said this month. “It's the only bright spot in the world economy.” And bright spot it is: Beijing announced that its gross domestic product grew 8 percent last year. The rate is so good that some are wondering whether the People's Republic can become the new engine for world growth.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

70. China Brief, Xu Wenli, into American exile

Author:
Robyn Lim, Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, and Thomas Woodrow
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On Christmas Eve the Chinese government released Xu Wenli, the founder of the country's tiny Democratic Party, into American exile. Xu has spent sixteen of the last twenty-one years behind bars. The most interesting comments on this event came from John Kamm, who for years has had no equal for occasionally persuading the Chinese government to free its political “enemies”.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, America, and Israel