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31. Partners in Democracy, Partners in Security: NATO and the Arab Spring

Author:
Young Atlanticists
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has created significant challenges and unprecedented opportunities for NATO and its partners in the Mediterranean region. New security issues have emerged alongside new regimes and regional instability looms. State failure, civil conflict, and institutional collapse could present a number of major security threats, among them the creation of a refugee crisis affecting NATO members, increased illegal arms trafficking, and a breeding ground for militant groups in a Somali-like setting near European shores. These threats highlight the need for NATO to set up a plan for fostering regional stability and developing good relations with new and emerging leaders. The changing nature of regional security and Arab governance demands a multi-faceted approach which requires NATO to draw on expertise beyond its own, especially in empowering civil society and youth groups that are the cornerstone of sustainable democracy. Such new challenges require new partnerships and this memo intends to convey two core recommendations: restructure the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) to allow for a more incentivized and effective partnership, and partner with other institutional actors to enable NATO to offer a more comprehensive assistance package. NATO should play to its strengths while working with organizations that specialize in other tasks that are necessary to meet these goals. Only robust partnerships will allow NATO
Topic:
Security, NATO, Civil Society, Refugee Crisis, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North America

32. World Grows More Peaceful - Except for the Middle East

Author:
Dana McKelvey
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
The Institute for Economics and Peace's annual Global Peace Index (GPI) reported an increase in world peace after two consecutive years of decline. The change was driven by slight reductions worldwide in terrorist acts, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, military sophistication, and aggregate number of heavy weapons per capita. As the sixth edition of the study, the 2012 GPI ranked the peacefulness of 158 nations, marking an increase from the 2011 ranking of 153 nations. As Professor Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University remarked at the GPI’s release, the study has great potential for “draw[ing] correlations” and encouraging collaboration between think tanks, universities, policymakers, and civil society in their study of global peace. The IEP will distribute the study to the World Bank, the OECD, the U.S. Congress, American University, and Club de Madrid, among other leading organizations. Professor Slaughter explained that researchers defined peacefulness not only as the absence of war or violence, but also as the absence of fear. The study addresses three major themes: the level of safety and security in society; the extent of domestic or international conflict; and the degree of militarization. The IEP researched these themes in the context of both “positive peace,” a “culture of peace” that values human rights, gender equality, democratic participation, and open communication, as well as “negative peace,” or the absence of violent conflict. In its study of “negative peace,” the GPI used twenty-three indicators, spanning topics from deaths in organized conflict, to political instability, to perceived criminality. The IEP’s Positive Peace Index (PPI), which addresses 108 countries, used twenty-one indicators categorized into eight “pillars of peace” that researchers identified as key to a peaceful society. The IEP emphasized the contrast between the PPI and other studies’ extensive focus on conflict and civil unrest. According to the IEP’s executive summary, the PPI becomes especially important during state-building, as in the recent cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. “The pillars of peace,” the summary states, “provide a foundation for thinking about how to establish the optimal environment for human wellbeing and potential to flourish.”
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East

33. What a Tangled Web: India Caught Between U.S. and Iranian Interests

Author:
Felix Imonti
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
India is caught between the consequences of provoking a United States driven by its fixation upon the Iranian nuclear program and by an Iran that is a major supplier of oil, providing India with access to its vital interests in Afghanistan. The best that the Ind
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34. Russia's Dangerous Nuclear Legacy

Author:
Richard Rousseau
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
The state of Russia’s civilian nuclear power should be cause the entire planet to shudder: Radioactive waste deposal sites are full to the bursting point, and many reactors are outdated and fail to meet even the most basic of safety standards. In short, as one reads between the lines, a new disaster is pending. The now-famous disaster in Japan has taken on tragic proportions and caused massive public health problems. Explosions in Japanese atomic power plants are forcing world experts to question once more the future of nuclear energy, as well as the existing and engineered safety level for various nuclear facilities around the world. Is nuclear energy “outdated”? Is it a source of energy that should be abandoned out of safety concerns? The time has arrived once again for a cold-eyed and careful assessment of nuclear energy security in the world. This is especially pressing in the case of Russia. Currently, 10 plants and 32 nuclear units are online within the territory of the Russian Federation. In considering the larger picture of Russia’s energy generation, inherent risks, and dismal safety record, neither modern nuclear reactors nor uranium-based fuels should be considered as a panacea for the country’s energy development. There are severe limitations in the development of the Russian modern nuclear energy. These are well noted in the scientific community and the mainstream media.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Nuclear Power, Public Health, and Radiological Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

35. Storm Clouds on the Horizon: A Possible New Cold War With China

Author:
Paul Nash
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
“Red China’s sub fleet can prove a major threat to American ships,” wrote Albert Ravenholt for the Chicago Daily News Service in 1964, referring to Mao’s underwater menace to American naval forces assembling in the South China Sea off the coast of Vietnam. The communist submarines, supplied by the Russians, were stationed on Hainan Island, at the southernmost tip of the Chinese mainland, across the Gulf of Tonkin. At the time, China was estimated to have between 30 and 40 in operation, the fourth largest fleet after the U.S.S.R, the United States and Great Britain. Nearly 48 years on, much has changed and yet much continues on the same trajectory. When Ravenholt, who set about becoming a reporter in Shanghai in the 1940s during the Second Sino-Japanese war, died at the age of 90 in 2010, China remained Red, even though its ideological hue had turned arguably more nationalistic after three decades of rising prosperity. China has modernized its military in tandem with its economic growth. It has committed itself to significant military spending, endeavouring to catch up to the West’s technological prowess by building advanced precision-guided munitions, anti-satellite and cyber-warfare capabilities. Last year, it unveiled the Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter jet, which is expected to go into service in 2017-19. It has also set up a land-based anti-ship missile system to limit the ability of other nations to navigate freely in regional waters, including those around the disputed Paracel and Spratly Islands, which it estimates may contain the world’s fourth largest reserve of oil and natural gas.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

36. Congress Considers New Sanctions on Iran - But Why

Author:
Paul Nadeau
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
It is not surprising that Congress can take a more aggressive stance on foreign policy issues than the Executive: Congress rarely bears the loss in foreign policy mistakes (consider where foreign policy issues rank on voters’ lists of priorities) and that consequently gives Congress an opportunity to demonstrate leadership, since high profile issues in most other issue areas carry considerably more risk. The result is that Congress will often take a position that is contrary to that of the Executive, most frequently by adopting a more extreme position, and then either assailing the Executive for a lack of leadership when the Executive does not follow or by taking credit when the Executive adopts Congress’s position. The most recent example is the issue of Iran’s nuclear program—which is likely the only current issue where there is genuine bipartisan support, famously evidenced in the Senate’s December 2011 100-0 passage of legislation sanctioning Iran’s financial sector. So far, international sanctions, and particularly the European Union’s sanctions of Iran’s oil sector, seem to have succeeded in damaging Iran’s economy and possibly even encouraging them to negotiate, though a breakthrough has been elusive. The problem is that while the sanctions may have succeeded in crippling Iran’s (already weak) economy so far, the goal of the sanctions program is supposed to have been to convince Iran to terminate its nuclear program. On that score, it’s unclear that additional sanctions may help the American cause and it might even undermine it.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

37. Where did all the Spartans Go?

Author:
Felix Imonti
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
Well, the Greeks voted on June 17th, but I am confused. What did the voters say? Before the election, polls revealed that 80 percent of the people supported membership in the European Union and the continued use of the Euro. When they voted, those same people cast 52 percent of their votes for parties opposed to the adoption of the austerity program that Greeks feel is being imposed upon them by the more powerful members of the EU—which translates into Germany. Accepting the economic program is an essential agreement in order to remain in the Eurozone. The New Democracy Party garnered the largest vote with nearly 30 percent. The leader of the conservative party, Antonis Samaras, pledged to keep Greece in the Eurozone and to negotiate modifications to the austerity package that Greece must accept in order to receive an additional 240 billion Euros. Somehow, people find the promises of Antonis Samaras unreliable. When the New Democracy Party was in opposition against the socialist PASOK Party—which had accepted the program imposed upon Greece—he rejected it. His reversal leaves his position in doubt among Greeks and the politicians outside with whom he has to negotiate. In short, is he for the austerity package or against it?
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Domestic politics, and Eurozone
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

38. Serbia's New President Eyes EU Membership

Author:
Alex Cooper
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
The new Serbian president, Tomislav Nikolic, has been making waves in the international community since winning the May 20th run-off election against incumbent Boris Tadic. Since Nikolic and his center-right Serbian Progressive party and its allies won 73 out of 250 seats in the National Assembly, Nikolic has been making some controvsial statements regarding some of Serbia’s neighbors. Nikolic won with 50.21 percent of the vote, while Tadic won 46.77 percent. The shocking statements from Nikolic began with an interview the president did before the second round of elections on May 6th with the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. In the interview, Nickolic stated that a “greater Serbia was his unrealized dream” and “Vukovar was a Serbian town in which Croats should not return.” The Croatian President, Ivo Josipovic and other officials have spoken out against Nikolic’s comments. Josipovic and other leaders from the Balkans did not attend Nikolic’s inauguration due to the comments, and the Croatian president cancelled a trip to Belgrade that was supposed to take place at the end of June. During the war following Croatia’s claim to independence from Yugoslavia, Vukovar experienced severe damage from the Yugoslav army that was led by Serbs. After Vukovar fell to the Yugoslav army, over 200 Croats were killed. Many Croatians still view Vukovar's story as a difficult topic. This was the only controversial statement from Nikolic. He recently told Montenegrin state television, “There was no genocide in Srebrenica.” The International Court of Justice and the UN war crimes tribunal have both ruled the massacre of over 7,000 Muslim men and boys in 1995 as genocide. The massacre is the worst atrocity to occur in Europe since World War II. The international community has condemned the remarks by Nikolic. A spokesperson for the European Commission, Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen, said that the comments were “attempts to rewrite history.” Hansen also said, “The atrocities in Srebrenica in July 1995 were a crime against all humankind, and we should never forget it, and we should never allow it to happen again.” On June 14th, the Associated Press reported that EU officials would discuss Nikolic’s recent comments with the new president. While meeting in Brussels, Nikolic attempted to show that Serbia was prepared for EU membership. He claimed, “There is not better future for Serbia than membership in the Union.”
Topic:
International Cooperation, European Union, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

39. Drones in Our World, Part IV: Adapting a Warfighter

Author:
Whitney Grespin
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
Aerial surveillance and remote sensing are nothing new in the world of combat reconnaissance, but they are new tools in the arsenal of the humanitarian relief and development communities. And they are rapidly evolving. Complex, disaster, and rapidly evolving environments all require the capability to promptly collect, analyze, and disseminate critical information that UAVs can gather and exploit in ways and quantities that other resources cannot rival.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Drones, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

40. Combating Energy Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Matthias Chika Mordi
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
With its high poverty levels and low degree of industrialization, Africa arguably faces the largest development gap of any region. Beyond the usual misery indices and welfare evaluation metrics, we have fundamental challenges that impede meaningful sustainable development. Energy is an incontrovertible challenge across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Data from the World Bank and International Energy Agency (IEA) on energy poverty does not make for good visuals. Two out of three of SSA households—585 million people—live without electricity. In stark contrast, 99 percent of North African households have electricity supply. Only 14 percent of rural SSA households are linked to the grid. This compares unfavorably with Latin America where 74 percent of rural households are connected to power. The figures mask a more disturbing fact about electricity supply in most SSA countries: a high frequency of blackouts and unstable power supply. The World Bank estimates that SSA households experienced 91 days of blackouts in 2007. Beyond low electrification, energy poverty extends into inefficient and perilous forms of domestic energy for cooking attributable to a lack of modern fuels and clean cookers. According to IEA reports, more than 80% of SSA households—653 million people—use biomass for cooking, with devastating consequences for people and the environment. In 2009, more than 1.45 million African lives were lost to household pollution caused by inefficient biomass cooking stoves. Fewer people died from malaria.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Poverty, and Industrialization
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa