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1. Anatomy of an Arab Transformation

Author:
Lara Setrakian
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Diplomatic Courier
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
More than a year's worth of systemic change in the Middle East still goes by an unsettled set of monikers: the Arab Spring, the Arab Upheaval, the Arab Awakening. But one phrase captures the effect, where we stand in the arc of a longer process. This is the age of the Arab Transformation—morphing life at every level. Beyond simply taking stock, it's worth examining the transformative machine that's being built, a kind of societal engine clicking into place that will drive the region for the rest of our lifetime.
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

2. Pakistan Remains A Question Mark in Lead Up to NATO Summit

Author:
Boris Macguire
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
After a decade of war in Afghanistan, world leaders will arrive at May’s NATO Summit in Chicago having finally articulated a plan to transfer control of security to Afghan forces. There has also been increasing pressure on President Obama and the alliance’s leaders to use the summit to announce a timetable for the second stage of the endgame process – the actual extraction of NATO forces. But Pakistan, which has perhaps the greatest stake in NATO’s exit and the endurance of a negotiated settlement with Taliban, has yet to publicly articulate a clear and unified position on the process. Instead, Pakistan has initiated a “strategic pause” in relations, appointing a parliamentary committee on national security to review the country’s official engagement with the United States and NATO. Until the results of the review and the status of U.S.-Pakistan relations are clarified, President Obama and NATO leaders will be severely restricted in their ability to formulate a realistic withdrawal timeline.
Topic:
Security, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Europe, North Atlantic, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

3. Partners in Democracy, Partners in Security: NATO and the Arab Spring

Author:
Young Atlanticists
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
The Arab Spring has created significant challenges and unprecedented opportunities for NATO and its partners in the Mediterranean region. New security issues have emerged alongside new regimes and regional instability looms. State failure, civil conflict, and institutional collapse could present a number of major security threats, among them the creation of a refugee crisis affecting NATO members, increased illegal arms trafficking, and a breeding ground for militant groups in a Somali-like setting near European shores. These threats highlight the need for NATO to set up a plan for fostering regional stability and developing good relations with new and emerging leaders. The changing nature of regional security and Arab governance demands a multi-faceted approach which requires NATO to draw on expertise beyond its own, especially in empowering civil society and youth groups that are the cornerstone of sustainable democracy. Such new challenges require new partnerships and this memo intends to convey two core recommendations: restructure the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) to allow for a more incentivized and effective partnership, and partner with other institutional actors to enable NATO to offer a more comprehensive assistance package. NATO should play to its strengths while working with organizations that specialize in other tasks that are necessary to meet these goals. Only robust partnerships will allow NATO
Topic:
Security, NATO, Civil Society, Refugee Crisis, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and North America

4. World Grows More Peaceful - Except for the Middle East

Author:
Dana McKelvey
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
The Institute for Economics and Peace's annual Global Peace Index (GPI) reported an increase in world peace after two consecutive years of decline. The change was driven by slight reductions worldwide in terrorist acts, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, military sophistication, and aggregate number of heavy weapons per capita. As the sixth edition of the study, the 2012 GPI ranked the peacefulness of 158 nations, marking an increase from the 2011 ranking of 153 nations. As Professor Anne-Marie Slaughter of Princeton University remarked at the GPI’s release, the study has great potential for “draw[ing] correlations” and encouraging collaboration between think tanks, universities, policymakers, and civil society in their study of global peace. The IEP will distribute the study to the World Bank, the OECD, the U.S. Congress, American University, and Club de Madrid, among other leading organizations. Professor Slaughter explained that researchers defined peacefulness not only as the absence of war or violence, but also as the absence of fear. The study addresses three major themes: the level of safety and security in society; the extent of domestic or international conflict; and the degree of militarization. The IEP researched these themes in the context of both “positive peace,” a “culture of peace” that values human rights, gender equality, democratic participation, and open communication, as well as “negative peace,” or the absence of violent conflict. In its study of “negative peace,” the GPI used twenty-three indicators, spanning topics from deaths in organized conflict, to political instability, to perceived criminality. The IEP’s Positive Peace Index (PPI), which addresses 108 countries, used twenty-one indicators categorized into eight “pillars of peace” that researchers identified as key to a peaceful society. The IEP emphasized the contrast between the PPI and other studies’ extensive focus on conflict and civil unrest. According to the IEP’s executive summary, the PPI becomes especially important during state-building, as in the recent cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. “The pillars of peace,” the summary states, “provide a foundation for thinking about how to establish the optimal environment for human wellbeing and potential to flourish.”
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Middle East

5. What a Tangled Web: India Caught Between U.S. and Iranian Interests

Author:
Felix Imonti
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
India is caught between the consequences of provoking a United States driven by its fixation upon the Iranian nuclear program and by an Iran that is a major supplier of oil, providing India with access to its vital interests in Afghanistan. The best that the Ind
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

6. Congress Considers New Sanctions on Iran - But Why

Author:
Paul Nadeau
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
It is not surprising that Congress can take a more aggressive stance on foreign policy issues than the Executive: Congress rarely bears the loss in foreign policy mistakes (consider where foreign policy issues rank on voters’ lists of priorities) and that consequently gives Congress an opportunity to demonstrate leadership, since high profile issues in most other issue areas carry considerably more risk. The result is that Congress will often take a position that is contrary to that of the Executive, most frequently by adopting a more extreme position, and then either assailing the Executive for a lack of leadership when the Executive does not follow or by taking credit when the Executive adopts Congress’s position. The most recent example is the issue of Iran’s nuclear program—which is likely the only current issue where there is genuine bipartisan support, famously evidenced in the Senate’s December 2011 100-0 passage of legislation sanctioning Iran’s financial sector. So far, international sanctions, and particularly the European Union’s sanctions of Iran’s oil sector, seem to have succeeded in damaging Iran’s economy and possibly even encouraging them to negotiate, though a breakthrough has been elusive. The problem is that while the sanctions may have succeeded in crippling Iran’s (already weak) economy so far, the goal of the sanctions program is supposed to have been to convince Iran to terminate its nuclear program. On that score, it’s unclear that additional sanctions may help the American cause and it might even undermine it.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

7. Foreign Aid a Critical Component of Mideast Stability

Author:
Robert Brada
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Diplomatic Courier
Abstract:
A few weeks ago I found myself on the outskirts of a remote village in the Jordanian desert. One of my travel companions received a call on his mobile phone. It was a member of Jordan’s security services, saying we should call if we needed anything as they would have people nearby at all times. It was then I began to realize that the small projects I had come to observe had a global impact. I am not a traditional international relief worker. I grew up in a small town in Kansas, became a corporate finance lawyer, worked on the management team of a movie studio, and ran a startup healthcare services company. Perhaps this corporate background contributed to my skeptical view of the value of the U.S. spending overseas during bad economic times. During my two-week trip to Jordan and Iraq, however, I witnessed first-hand how seemingly minor development programs can help support stability and international values. Although Jordan projects an image of tourist-friendly calm, its location between Israel, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia makes it a strategically important player in any Middle East peace process – or conflict. All its borders, except those with Israel, are porous, and the country has received over 750,000 Iraqi refugees since 2003. Recently, over 140,000 refugees crossed from Syria as that country’s conflict has escalated. In the small town of Mafraq in northern Jordan, I met a Syrian woman and her three daughters who had fled their home the morning after Syrian forces killed all of the males in the home next door, including children. She has had no contact with her husband and sons since she left. The Jordanian people and government have responded compassionately, absorbing refugees into their homes and neighborhoods. A consequence of this kindness, however, is that communities are finding themselves overburdened. Jordan’s severe water shortage leaves most areas with running water only two days a week. Doubling or tripling the size of households turns water rationing from inconvenience into impossibility. The same is true for sewage, waste management, and public infrastructure as antiquated systems are pushed past their capacity. Even the free market works against the Jordanian hosts, as the swelling refugee population drives up the price of housing, food, and other commodities, while pushing down wages.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan