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31. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: May 2002

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in May.The big jump in real money supply and initial claims for unemployment insurance were largely responsible for the leading index picking up in May. This marks the seventh increase in the leading index in the past eight months.The decline in the coincident index in the most recent recession was relatively modest. To date, the coincident index has only increased 0.4 percent from its lowest point in November 2001 compared to an average increase of 2.4 percent in the first six months of the past six recoveries.While the coincident index has been moderately improving, the lagging index has been steeply declining. This led to the seventh increase in the last eight months in the ratio of coincident to lagging index, a series that has historically led business cycles. This reinforces the continuation of the recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

32. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: April 2002

Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased by 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.4 percent in April.Real money supply, which shrank for the second consecutive month, and falling stock prices are the primary components that caused the leading index to drop for the first time since September 2001. The overall signal from the leading index, however, remains one of moderate economic growth.Modest gains in the coincident index in the past five months indicate a slowly recuperating economy. The six-month growth rate of the coincident index underscores this economic recovery posting its biggest gain in 15 months.While improvements in current economic activity have been moderate, the cost of doing business, as represented by the lagging index, has been steeply declining. This points to continued improvement in economic conditions in the near term.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

33. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: March 2002

Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.4 percent in March The leading index has been posting strong gains, growing by 2.9 percent from September 2001 to March 2002, and by 2.2 percent for each of the six-month periods ending January and February 2002. The gains would have been more robust had it not been for the weakness in building permits and claims for unemployment insurance Gains in industrial production in the last three months, coupled with a recovery in employment, have helped push the coincident index up. Negative trends in these indicators were largely responsible for the decline in the coincident index last year. US economic recovery appears to be underway. The combination of rising energy prices, the current global instability, and the more cautious consumer and business sectors, however, might slow the pace of economic growth in the near term.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

34. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: February 2002

Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.3 percent in February. Even with a flat month-to-month growth in February, the leading index is still up 2.4 percent from its value six months ago in August 2001 and up 3.1 percent from its value a year ago. The modest gains in the coincident index appear to be gaining momentum. Should this trend continue, the trough of the recession would most likely be November 2001, making the most recent economic contraction very short and certainly the mildest in U.S. history. The coincident-to-lagging ratio, which has historically led business cycles, is up for the fifth consecutive month in February. This is another signal that an economic recovery is underway.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

35. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: January 2002

Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.6 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in January. The leading index posted a robust 2.2 percent increase from July 2001 to January 2002. This is the fourth consecutive month that the six-month growth rate of the leading index has improved. Meanwhile, the six-month diffusion index, which measures the number of components that are rising, has increased above 50 percent for the first time in 21 months. With a robust leading index, the coincident index appears to be bottoming out in the past two months. The rate of decline of nonagricultural payrolls and industrial production has slowed in the last three and four months respectively while personal income and manufacturing sales have essentially held their ground throughout the recession. The coincident-to-lagging ratio, which has historically led business cycles, is up for the fourth consecutive month in January. This underscores the strength of the leading index and indicates a likely economic recovery, barring any unexpected negative events.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

36. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2001

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 1.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.1 percent in December.The increase in the leading index in December is the largest gain since February of 1996. With this month's gain, the leading index has increased for three consecutive months bringing the index level above the pre-recession peak.The leading index continues to be driven by the expansionary monetary policy initiatives of the Federal Reserve. This is further strengthened by a rebound in the employment and expectations components in recent months.The coincident index's gain this month is the first in five months. This, coupled with a robust leading index, indicates that the economy, barring any unexpected shock, is gathering momentum.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

37. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2001

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.5 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.7 percent in November. Gains in the financial, housing and expectations components propelled the leading index up in November for a second consecutive month. Should this pattern in the leading index continue, an economic recovery in the first half of next year may be possible. The coincident index continued to weaken as industrial production declined in thirteen of the last fourteen months while nonagricultural employees declined in six of the last eight months. Compared to the coincident index's average decline of 3.3 percent in the previous six recessions, the current decline has been relatively shallow. To date, the coincident index has declined by only 1.4 percent from its peak of 117.1 in December 2000.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

38. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2001

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.3 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.3 percent in October.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

39. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2001

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased by 0.5 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased by 0.2 percent in September. The composite indexes and their components suggest that the widespread weakness in the U.S. economy is becoming deeper.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

40. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 2001

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index remained flat, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in August. The composite indexes and their components suggest weakening conditions in the U.S. economy going into the end of the third quarter, just prior to the attack on September 11, 2001.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy