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41. Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Korea

42. Does South Africa Suffer from the Fear of Float' Syndrome?An Analysis of the Efficacy and Challenges of a Managed Floating Exchange Rate Regime with Financial Integration'

Author:
Olano Makhubela
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The paper examines whether South Africa suffers from a 'fear of float' syndrome. The analysis also covers the efficacy and challenges of a managed floating exchange rate regime. I use time series data, volatility equations and ARCH models to test the volatility of South Africa's exchange rate, interest rate and foreign exchange reserves. Evidence shows that South Africa has volatile interest and exchange rates, but not foreign exchange reserves. Yet, South Africa does not seem to suffer from an extreme and chronic form of 'fear of floating'. South Africa requires financial integration to finance its current account deficits and to complement its low savings rate. Yet, evidence indicates that both capital account openness and foreign exchange control liberalization have no robust impact on growth. The authorities' intervention in the 2001 currency crisis did not help. Hence, I recommend that South Africa should use interest rates early to target both inflation and foreign exchange rates. Challenges remain in the form of relatively high interest rates, volatile capital flows, perceptions, destabilizing speculation, and loopholes in foreign exchange controls.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
South Africa

43. Globalisation and Comparative Economics: Of Efficiency, Efficient Institutions, and Late Development'

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Does globalisation entail a demand for uniformity, or diversity, of the (political) economic institutions of nation-states? What is the theoretical underpinning of the demand? And what are the implications of the demand for economic development? The conventional literature known as comparative economic systems has been unable to answer these question, because there is an intrinsic tension between its methodology (the neoclassical framework of individualistic rational choices and their equilibrium) and the subject matter (the multiplicity of economic institutions and development experiences in the real world). The new comparative economics has consisted of a variety of attempts to cope with this tension: some aimed at preserving the neoclassical framework at a m o re fundamental level, while some others aim e d at transcending the framework to arrive at a new theory of economic system s and development. This paper argues that attempts that adhere to the neoclassical tradition is likely to lead to dead ends, while attempts that encompass collective as well as individualistic rationality represent m o re promising directions. Fuller developments of the literature, however, require incorporating objectified institutions and paradigmised technology in to its sphere of inquiry. It is submitted that there are important lessons to learn from classical political economy and their modern presentations, particularly Marxian theories of the social forces of production, in this regard.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy

44. Household water and sanitation services in Saudi Arabia: an analysis of economic, political and ecological issues'

Author:
Elie Elhadj
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This study evaluates Saudi Arabia's investment in household water and sanitation services (WSS) over the past three decades or so. It finds that over one half of Saudi householders still have no municipal water connections and two thirds are without sanitation connections. Saudi cities have no rain water drainage system s to deal with the brief and occasional, but severe deluges of winters. Desalinated water is transmitted across hundreds of kilometers of desert terrain to two major urban centers (Riyadh and Qaseem) that are rich in groundwater reserves while their local water is used in irrigation.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Environment, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia

45. Camels don't fly, deserts don't bloom: an assessment of Saudi Arabia's experiment in desert agriculture'

Author:
Elie Elhadj
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Severe arid conditions constrained agricultural production and population size in the Arabian Peninsula over the millennia (except around oases and in parts of Yemen). An abrupt change in Saudi Arabia started in the 1980s to make the desert bloom. This study examines whether or not the Saudi experiment in desert irrigation has been worthwhile in terms of cost and benefit. It concludes that the project was a waste of money and water on a grand scale.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Environment, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Sinai Peninsula

46. The household water crisis in Syria's Greater Damascus Region'

Author:
Elie Elhadj
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Damascus residents talk in recent years of long periods of daily water shut-offs for most months especially between June and the following January. “ In 2001 … stringent water rationing was in force in Damascus… the authorities … shut off the capital's piped water supply for 20 hours each day (compared with 16 hours previously) from July of that year. Europa Publications (2002: p.979).”
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Environment, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Syria

47. Compensating Differentials and the Queue For Public Sector Jobs: Evidence from Egyptian Household Survey Data'

Author:
Mona Said
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This Paper considers the determinants of male and female pay in the public and private sectors by estimating a joint model of sector allocation and wage determination using cross-sectional data from the Egyptian 1987 and 1997 labour force surveys. The results points to the profound impact of the graduate public sector employment guarantee on labour market segmentation in Egypt. In particular, the level of educational attainment became the most important factor in sorting workers between sectors. Comparison of the 1987 and 1997 results highlight that the strong impact of the public sector employment guarantee on the labour market in the 1980s was weakened in the 1990s for males but remains important for females. Moreover, risk-averse individuals (proxied by those who have greater financial responsibility in their households) have a greater probability of choosing public sector than private sector employment. These results are consistent with the effective operation of the guarantee for more highly educated workers and with time based queuing for guaranteed positions. A model of compensating wage differentials is then defined and estimated, in order to quantify the value of arguably the three most important non-pecuniary aspects of public sector employment: job security, fringe benefits (especially comprehensive retirement pensions) and lower effort and shorter hours which allow workers to supplement income through obtaining a second job. Estimates of the publicprivate differentials, correcting for differences in characteristics and selectivity, indicate a public sector disadvantage for males and a small advantage for females in 1987. Relative public sector wages improved for both males and females in 1997, and when adjustments for non-wage benefits are included, public sector premia are observed in all segments of the public sector for both males and females. It also emerged that the single most important adjustment factor leading to the change in the differential is the value of job stability, which drives up the differential in favour of the public sector, particularly in manufacturing. The results highlight the importance of job security as the major factor determining the persistence of queues for public sector jobs in Egypt.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Egypt

48. Assessing the Role of Foreign Direct Investment in China's Economic Development: Macro Indicators and Insights from Sectoral-Regional Analyses'

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to assess the role of FDI in China's economic development with reference to the broader literature on FDI and late development. Three main findings come out from the analyses in the paper. First, it is found that FDI tends to promote the improvement in allocative efficiency, while having a negative impact on productive efficiency. Second, insofar as FDI does promote overall productivity growth, this tends to be a matter of cumulative causation rather than one of single-direction causation. Third, in the context of a comparative analysis of two distinctive regional models, it is found that the economic impact of FDI tends to be more favourable in the inward-looking, capital-deepening pattern of development (the 'Shanghai model') than that in the export-oriented, labour-intensive pattern (the 'Guangdong model'). Further analyses, however, suggest that the 'Shanghai model' has its intrinsic problems of sustainability. The scope for applying it to China as a whole is thus judged to be limited.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai

49. Virtual water and the Kyoto consensus'

Author:
S. Merrett
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Editor of Water International published in the March 2003 issue a paper by Stephen Merrett containing a critique of the “virtual water” concept as well as replies by Tony Allan and Christopher Lant. This discussion paper is a rejoinder to Allan and Lant that also raises the stakes by considering the relation of “virtual water” to an emerging Kyoto consensus on water resources management.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Environment, and International Law

50. Development of the civil realm in Shanghai environmental politics

Author:
Seungho Lee
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This chapter analyses the development in the civil realm of environmental politics in Shanghai. This study is an effort to identify environmental communities based on Mary Douglas's grid/group theory and an attempt to comprehend the nature of the dynamic interaction of the private and the public spheres, particularly within the public sphere between the state (the Shanghai government) and ethical social entities (environmental NGOs and other social groups). The contribution of the study lies in its revelation of how the civil realm in Shanghai has developed with a self - capacity to redress environmentally unfriendly policies over the last decade. Fieldwork carried out in 2002 identified a number of environmental Non Governmental Organisations, NGOs, and other social groups in Shanghai. It proved to be possible to highlight the recent emergence of environmental NGOs, including university students based organisations. The study evaluates how these groups have evolved and have survived in the transitional period in alliance with Government Organised NGOs, GONGOs, local communities (shequ), the media, international NGOs and the government. Although these environmental groups now commit themselves to various environmental issues, Shanghai does not have any particular NGO mainly engaged in freshwater issues. It is concluded that a collaboration of GONGOs, NGOs, and various environmental groups alongside international NGOs has led to the formation of a civil force that impacts Shanghai's environmental policy - making.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Environment
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai