« Previous |
1 - 10 of 16
|
Next »
Number of results to display per page
Search Results
2. Putin’s Next, Best Move – The Logic and Limits of Russian Action on Ukraine
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Moscow will act when and if it declares that the West has escalated contention rather than responding positively to its entreaties – principally those regarding NATO expansion and implementation of the Minsk II agreement. Recent, new US/NATO troop deployments and weapon transfers to Ukraine may already count as relevant escalation. Russian forces surrounding Ukraine stand at an exceptionally high level of readiness and significantly exceed the scale of previous deployments. Nonetheless, a full-scale invasion aiming to seize the whole of Ukraine is highly unlikely. Indeed, Russian action may involve no more than large-scale conveyance of weapons and munitions to the rebel areas, possibly along with an influx of “volunteers.” Several other options ranging between these two are discussed below.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
3. And So Now… It’s War?
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The battle within Ukraine and the USA-Russia contest over it has returned Europe to the darkest, most ominous period of the 1947-1989 Cold War. That this should happen with both the United States and Russia barreling grimly forward reflects a singular failure of diplomacy and common sense. There were two recent points in time when positive leadership might have turned us away from the path of disaster. Fortunately, one of these is not yet foreclosed. Movement toward resolution begins with recognizing that all sides, all stakeholders share fault for the current crisis. And no side has told the whole truth of it. Without question, Russian intervention in Ukraine’s civil conflict violates international law. Although Russia has the right to defend itself from attack, this proviso does not apply in the current situation. The annexation of Crimea was illegal, as is Russian intervention in the Donbass. This is indisputable.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
4. The “Stable Nuclear Deterrent” collapses in the Ukraine War
- Author:
- Charles Knight
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The comforting narrative of a dependable and stable nuclear deterrence between the US and Russia has been thrown into disarray by the War in Ukraine. This narrative, propagated widely in the years following the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, held that both the Super Powers fully appreciated that they could not “win” a nuclear battle and, therefore, would avoid direct conventional warfare, which might then quickly escalate into nuclear war. In a necessary corollary, it was thought that Russia and the US would make every effort to avoid a conventional war in Europe. Why? Because there are so many paths to escalation to nuclear war in Europe. Elsewhere in the world, US and Russian interests were more diffuse and, therefore, not so vital.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
5. Afghanistan: What Just Happened? What Comes Next?
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- in short order, a 20-year $1.2 trillion US effort at nation-building evaporated, disintegrated, went up in smoke. And while unreconstructed interventionists pummel President Biden for surrendering Afghanistan, the truth is that we never had it. What we held instead was a hollow construct of our own imagination and creation – a client pseudo-state. And when it was finally and fully tested, it (for the most part) threw down its arms and ran away. In a sense, the sudden collapse of Kabul’s government and security services provides the surest litmus test of America’s 20-year enterprise in Afghanistan. It tells us that coercive nation-building by a foreign power – indeed, an alien power – is an impossible mission. Outsiders lack the knowledge, indigenous roots, legitimacy, and degree of interest to succeed against local resistance. Their very presence is provocative, especially given differences of language, religion, and culture. It’s as likely to spur resistance as it is to quell it. At the same time, such interventions risk becoming intractable given domestic political dynamics and Washington’s fixation on preserving its superpower reputation, its claim to being the “indispensable power”.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Taliban, Conflict, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
6. Afghanistan: The Fog at the End of the Tunnel
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- What is causing the uncertainty about when US ground forces will exit Afghanistan. The Biden administration insists that logistical factors explain its breach of the 2020 US-Taliban agreement, which reset the exit date from May to September. Logistical factors are also supposed to explain why the date may now be walked back to July. Actually, logistical issues explain neither. Using current data and historical precedent, this short analysis shows why. An alternative explanation for the delay is that it gave Washington more time to pursue some of its unfinished goals regarding Afghanistan. In this, the lingering troop presence serves as leverage. What goals? Improve Kabul’s military posture, polish plans and preparations for US forces to “fight from afar,” and pursue dramatic new international initiatives aiming to lock the Taliban into a cease-fire, peace settlement, and government reform plan substantially defined by the USA. This high risk-gambit won’t succeed, but it might prolong the conflict and America’s involvement in it.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, War, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Taliban, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America
7. Sustainable Defense: More Security, Less Spending
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The United States must partner with other nations in addressing challenges like climate change, epidemics of disease, nuclear proliferation, and human rights and humanitarian crises. None of these challenges are best dealt with by military force. Rather, they will depend on building non-military capacities for diplomacy, economic assistance, and scientific and cultural cooperation and exchange which have been allowed to languish in an era in which the military has been treated as the primary tool of U.S. security policy.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Economy, Sustainability, and Hybrid Threats
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
8. 8 Key findings regarding the Korea nuclear arms crisis from recent discussions with experts in China, Russia and Korea
- Author:
- Charles Knight
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Most interlocutors thought that there is almost no chance that the presently stringent sanctions can force the DPRK to agree to disarm. The Chinese and the Russians generally believe that the maximal concession that sanctions can win from the DPRK is an agreement to freeze their warhead and missile development — particularly inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) development — in return for some combination of confidence-building measures, security guarantees, and progress toward political normalization. The North Koreans will not give up the nuclear weapons they already have… at least not until there is a permanent peace on the peninsula and the US is no longer understood to be an enemy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, and Disarmament
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, North Korea, and United States of America
9. The Inter-Korean Summit Declaration of April 27, 2018: a review in detail
- Author:
- Charles Knight
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The April 27, 2018 Inter-Korean Summit was a visibly cordial, even happy, event. At its conclusion, North and South Korea released a “Declaration of Peace, Prosperity and Unification.” This paper reviews a selection of key sections and phrases in “The Declaration” with attention to understanding their implications for the goal declared by both parties of ending “division and confrontation” on the peninsula and for addressing the overhanging issue of denuclearization. Notably, both parties strongly assert their rights as Koreans to take leadership in this task before them. Among the issues this review examines are the implications of various provisions in The Declaration for two great powers with long-standing interests in and influence on the Korean peninsula: China and the United States.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, and Disarmament
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
10. Strange Victory: A critical appraisal of Operation Enduring Freedom and the Afghanistan war
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- Why the inadvertent effects of the war are now overtaking the intended ones. Includes appendices addressing: the war’s impact on the humanitarian crisis; the missing political framework for American action; the source of power and the strategy of the Taliban; and the limits of the Bonn agreement and the challenges facing the interim government.
- Topic:
- Government, Treaties and Agreements, War, Taliban, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Operation Enduring Freedom
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America