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1. Watching Over the Taiwan Strait: The Role of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Taiwan’s Defense Strategy

Author:
Ian Easton, Mark Stokes, Yang Kuang-shun, Eric Lee, and Colby Ferland
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Unmanned systems are likely to transform the Taiwan Strait battle space in the coming years. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has fielded a large and increasingly sophisticated force of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) opposite Taiwan. This underscores the importance of exploiting advanced unmanned systems to deter opportunistic acts of aggression, and to defeat the PLA’s potential use of force in the event that deterrence should fail. This report examines the current state and trajectory of Taiwan’s indigenous UAV capabilities, and illuminates the role UAVs play within both Taiwan’s defense strategy and the American-led Indo-Pacific security network more broadly. In addition, this report evaluates the PLA’s organizational infrastructure designed for a Taiwan campaign, discusses cross-Strait political-military challenges, and highlights future opportunities to expand U.S.-Taiwan military and security cooperation as part of long-term strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and United States of America

2. Regime Resilience and Civil Resistance in Post-Tiananmen China

Author:
Yang Jianli and Han Lianchao
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In the 1980s, conflicting patterns of economic liberalization and the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) dogmatic insistence on unchallenged social control led to a widespread protest movement across the People’s Republic of China (PRC, China). Tensions reached an apex on June 4, 1989 in what became known as the Tiananmen Square Massacre. In memory of the 30 year anniversary of the Party’s brutal and lethal suppression of their own people, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the CCP’s post-Tiananmen survival strategy and the enduring tradition of civil resistance in the PRC. Though CCP methods of quelling civil dissent have strengthened in the decades following Tiananmen, the authors identify various indicators of growing discord in the PRC. In evaluating the perseverance of civil resistance in China, the authors conclude that the ongoing struggle against the authoritarian Party apparatus is far from over.
Topic:
Political Violence, History, Authoritarianism, State Violence, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

3. A Golden Opportunity for a U.S.-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Dan Blumenthal and Michael Mazza
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The United States and Taiwan can create a free trade agreement (FTA) that serves the interests of both sides. Taiwan should seek to set the gold standard in economic openness, as well as in the legal, regulatory, and standards frameworks that will govern emerging technologies and industries such as 5G, the internet of things (IOT), artificial intelligence (AI), and the future industries to be built upon them. In pursuit of the United States’ vision for a “free and open” Indo-Pacific, it would be wise for the U.S. to enlist in its effort countries that are, themselves, already free and open. Taiwan should be considered a crucial partner in the Trump administration’s strategy. This monograph serves to provide a framework for a U.S.-Taiwan free trade agreement (FTA), outlining areas of concern for the United States, in addition to areas that provide opportunities for closer bilateral cooperation. Importantly, such cooperation could give greater impetus for free trade negotiations, advance the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and bolster the United States’ National Security Strategy.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Free Trade, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

4. China's Top Five War Plans

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This publication breaks down Beijing’s likely top five war plans to understand what may be driving China’s military reorganization and reform campaign. Easton analyzes available Chinese military sources and concludes that China’s primary strategic goal is to take Taiwan using one or more of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s five outlined combat operations, in the 21st century’s foremost flashpoint. He also explains how these five different joint operations could be used to isolate or occupy Taiwan, thwart American intervention in offensive operations against U.S. military units, and repel potential border threats from India in the event of aPLA invasion of Taiwan.
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
China

5. The People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force: Leadership and Structure

Author:
Rachael Burton and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) is one of the most significant components of the People’s Republic of China’s (China, PRC) ongoing military reform and reorganization. Based on limited sources available, the PLASSF appears intended to integrate the launch, tracking, and control of satellites with the operational units that apply the services that the satellites provide, such as command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. This paper aims to provide an overview of the Strategic Support Force’s role within the PLA, its leadership structure, and the biographies of its core decision makers. In addition, it examines how the PLASSF’s presumed ability to provide “cross-domain fusion” helps to augment synergies among PLA assets, which could enhance the PLA’s capacity to further project power in the Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Leadership, and Army
Political Geography:
China and Asia

6. White Warships and Little Blue Men: The Looming “Short, Sharp War” in the East China Sea over the Senkakus

Author:
James E. Fanell and Kerry K. Gershaneck
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
China claims Japan’s Senkaku Islands and vows to seize them in a “short, sharp war,” if necessary. China’s successful seizure of the islands would shatter the Japan-America security alliance and severely undermine U.S. credibility. This study examines China’s attack campaign by tracing its territorial claims to the East China Sea and by addressing its Senkakus campaign doctrine, the military and paramilitary forces it will employ, how the campaign will unfold, the timing of the attack, how China might counter U.S. intervention, and steps the United States and Japan should take to deter it.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Military Intervention, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

7. U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a Sea of Change

Author:
Ian Easton, Richard L. Armitage, and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Concerned about a potential drift in the relationship, The Project 2049 Institute conducted a series of working-level dialogues, resulting in the production of a study addressing the medium to long-term challenges that appear likely in Taiwan and across the Taiwan Strait. The objective of this report is to make detailed policy recommendations for Washington as it endeavors to strengthen relations with Taiwan, while at the same time mitigating tensions that are emerging in relations across the Strait.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

8. Addressing China's Coercion in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Ted Yoho
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Project 2049 Institute is pleased to announce the publication of remarks made by Congressman Ted Yoho [R-FL] at our event, “Addressing China’s Coercive Air Power in the Taiwan Strait.” Congressman Yoho, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Asia and the Pacific, asserts his commitment to protecting the interests of Taiwan despite the recent growing aggressive actions and coercive language of Beijing, directed under General Secretary Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. In addition, Congressman Yoho addressed the fact that China’s declaration of the new M503 flight path is just one part of their larger strategic plan to quell Taiwan, which motivates him to continue to push the U.S. administration and Congress to prioritize Taiwan and to work to meet the mounting challenges with which China presents us.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Taiwan's All-Volunteer Force and Military Transformation

Author:
Dee Wu
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This publication makes the case for a Taiwanese All-Volunteer Force (AVF) military in order to transform it into a more capable combat force. Wu analyzes the Tsai administrations’ defense strategy and concludes that the implementation of an all-volunteer force is in line with Taiwan’s interests to enhance its projection capabilities to attack, disrupt, and even defeat the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) far outside of the island
Topic:
International Organization and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Taiwan

10. Red Drones Over Disputed Seas

Author:
Project 2029 Institute
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This publication lays out a field guide for the sailors and pilots operating in the disputed areas of the East and South China Seas. The guide examines four Chinese aerial drone models: S-100, ASN-209, BZK-005, and GJ-1, including tips on how to identify them, and where they could be seen operating in the East and South China Seas. The intent is to jumpstart a conversation on how militaries and law enforcement agencies should prepare their personnel to deal with potentially hostile aerial drones, armed or otherwise, operating in disputed areas in their maritime neighborhood
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus