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1. White Warships and Little Blue Men: The Looming “Short, Sharp War” in the East China Sea over the Senkakus

Author:
James E. Fanell and Kerry K. Gershaneck
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
China claims Japan’s Senkaku Islands and vows to seize them in a “short, sharp war,” if necessary. China’s successful seizure of the islands would shatter the Japan-America security alliance and severely undermine U.S. credibility. This study examines China’s attack campaign by tracing its territorial claims to the East China Sea and by addressing its Senkakus campaign doctrine, the military and paramilitary forces it will employ, how the campaign will unfold, the timing of the attack, how China might counter U.S. intervention, and steps the United States and Japan should take to deter it.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Military Intervention, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

2. The Framework for a U.S.-Japan Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Derek M. Scissors and Dan Blumenthal
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The United States and Japan can create a bilateral free trade and investment agreement that both sides will sign and ratify. While the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) initially appeared to qualify as the new approach the U.S., Japan, and East Asia needed. It failed to sufficiently promote free markets and address concerns to generate enough support from traditional protectionist opponents in the United States. Nonetheless, the TPP did clarify the value of a directly relatied initiative: a U.S.-Japan bilateral agreement. This monograph serves to provide a framework for a U.S.-Japan Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and offers an outline for what such an agreement should look like in order to work both economically and in terms of domestic politics.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Domestic Politics, Investment, and Free Trade
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

3. Challenges for the PLAN in the Western Pacific: Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Tetsuo Kotani
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
China is further developing its anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, particularly its submarine fleet and cruise missiles launched from land-based aircraft, to defeat an approaching enemy fleet. In addition to developing A2/AD capabilities, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is making concerted efforts to become a blue water navy. However, the PLAN faces some difficult challenges—both geographical and operational—in becoming an ocean-going navy. This paper considers the challenges the PLAN faces in the open ocean and the implications of these challenges for U.S.-Japan alliance cooperation.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

4. China’s Military Developments and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Project 2049 Institute
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In 2015, the Project 2049 Institute launched a program to focus on trends in China’s military advancements and how the U.S. and Japan can coordinate closely to maintain the peace and stability that has anchored the Asia-Pacific region’s economic dynamism and growth over the past 60 years. The discussions drew upon perspectives from U.S. and Japanese experts who work in a variety of government and non-governmental positions. This paper serves as a capstone for the various discussions held over the course of the program in both Washington, D.C. and San Diego.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, Alliance, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

5. Rebuilding Deterrence: Post-2015 Defense Guidelines Challenges Facing the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Sugio Takahashi
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
On 27 April 2015, Japan and the U.S. concluded the new Guidelines for the Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. This paper will explore the challenges facing the alliance after the revision of the Defense Guidelines. It will examine the evolution of Japanese thought on deterrence as outlined in the 2010 and 2013 National Defense Program Guidelines. It will also assess the strategic implications of China’s military modernization. This paper will conclude by offering possible policy solutions to the challenges facing the U.S.-Japan alliance in maintaining deterrence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

6. Extending Domestic Governance Over the Seas: China’s State Oceanic Administration

Author:
Chisako T. Masuo
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In 1982, General Liu Huaqing of China proposed the strategy of ‘offshore defense’ and drew a line through the Kurile Islands, Japan and the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, the Philippines, Borneo, and Natuna Besar. He set the year 2000 as the goal for establishing Chinese control inside this ‘First Island Chain.’ China has been trying to expand its area of actual control by extending domestic governance over the seas. Over the last decade, the State Oceanic Administration (SOA) under the State Council has assumed more responsibility in the oceanic administration and developed a clearer division of labor within PLAN.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Governance, Geopolitics, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Taiwan, Asia, Philippines, and Borneo

7. “Destined to Cooperate”: Japan-ROK Naval Cooperation and its Implications for U.S. Strategic Interests in Northeast Asia

Author:
Samuel J. Mun
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) and Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces (JMSDF) are “destined to cooperate” in an increasingly competitive security environment in Northeast Asia. Both parties share bilateral security treaties with the United States, prioritize protection of shared sea lines of communication (SLOCs), and face the challenge of addressing the threat of North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons program.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Navy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

8. The Alliance: Toward a Stronger U.S.-Japan Partnership

Author:
Project 2049 Institute
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
For the first time in the history of our nation, the Asia-Pacific is more important for the United States than any other region of the world. That is today. Tomorrow it will be even more vital. Indeed, the Asia-Pacific is the new epicenter of global affairs, and it is here that profound strategic changes are unfolding that will transform the international system. As one of the region’s most prosperous, powerful and pivotally located countries, Japan will play a key role in steering the trajectory of future developments in the region. This report is the capstone paper for the U.S.-Japan Exchange Program (2012 – 2014).
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and International System
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

9. The Senkaku Islands and the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Future Implications for the Asia-Pacific

Author:
Tetsuo Kotani
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
By challenging Japan’s control of the Senkaku Islands, China is testing the resolve of Tokyo and the strategic position of Washington. In other words, China is testing the credibility of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Casual observers tend to overlook or underestimate the confront-ation that ensued between Tokyo and Beijing after the Japanese government formally purchased three Senkaku islets in September 2012.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

10. Clarifying U.S. – Japan Mine Warfare Roles, Missions, and Capabilities in the Persian Gulf: An Examination of International Legal Issues

Author:
Sean Henseler
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The “Armitage/Nye Report” suggests that one area for potential increased alliance defense cooperation is minesweeping in the Persian Gulf. There is no question that Japan has the capability to deploy minesweepers to the Gulf and that doing so might have a deterrent effect were Iran to announce once again that it was planning to close the SOH. The real question for policymakers revolves around Japanese willingness to do so.
Topic:
International Law, War, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, Persian Gulf, and United States of America