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1. Xi Transforms the Party: Senior Cadre Selection in a New Era

Author:
Mark Stokes, Eric Lee, Cathy Fang, and Marek Haar
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Due to the challenges associated with the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) rise, anticipating who will lead the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a major concern. General Secretary Xi Jinping has reshuffled the deck around norms for succession. With old patterns woven out of the CCP’s banner, studying the new framework for promoting new senior leaders and the sub-factional politics lying underneath will aid in identifying who will lead the CCP and govern the PRC in the future. To that end, this report offers a summary of the leader promotion process within the CCP, a guide to identifying rising CCP leadership in the future, and a map of the current six sub-factions competing for Xi’s favor.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2. Before Zero Day: Taiwan’s Evolving Defense Strategy and the Struggle for Peace

Author:
Eric Lee, Ian Easton, Grace Price, Colby Ferland, Cathy Fang, Mark Stokes, and Alice Cho
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The invasion of Ukraine has upended long-held assumptions of the liberal international order, and as tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwanese leaders are watching Ukraine with their futures in mind. The objective of this report is to provide insights into how Taiwanese policymakers, military officers, diplomats, strategists, and everyday citizens are responding to the evolving threat picture in the Taiwan Strait and offer ideas for the policy debate in Washington. This report examines leadership speeches, strategy reports, military writings, and media articles, as well as recounts findings from interviews with Taiwanese and U.S. government officials, military officers, and civil society.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Peace, and International Order
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

3. A Perfect Storm: Managing Conflict in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Randall G. Schriver
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The United States’ approach to security in the Taiwan Strait has long been defined by its “One China Policy” while maintaining “strategic ambiguity.” However, without coordinated, whole-of-government policies, the People’s Republic of China will continue to act aggressively in the Taiwan Strait and cross-Strait tensions will continue to rise. The United States must creates policies that support U.S. security interests in the Indo-Pacific and develop and execute a strategy for deterring an attack on Taiwan and defeating aggression should deterrence fail. The objective of this report is to offer recommendations for shaping near- and long-term U.S. policy regarding Taiwan in five different areas: political, science and technology, economic, military, socio-cultural, and non-traditional security.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Crisis Management, Strategic Interests, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:
China and Taiwan

4. Early Warning in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Mark Stokes and Eric Lee
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Shows of force from China’s People’s Liberation Army exist on a continuum from peace to war and can be characterized as coercive or annihilative. In this report, Executive Director Mark Stokes and Associate Director of Programs Eric Lee examine kinetic and non-kinetic threats posed to Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army. The authors explore the history of Taiwan’s early warning infrastructure and radar order of battle. They then assess how these capabilities support Taiwan’s air sovereignty missions of surveillance and control around its territories. They conclude by suggesting ways the United States can bolster Taiwan’s early warning capabilities.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Sovereignty, Surveillance, and Army
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

5. SOUTHCOM Commander ADM Faller on U.S.-China Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere

Author:
Craig S. Faller
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Project 2049 Institute is pleased to announce the publication of remarks made by Admiral Craig Faller at our recent event, “Near and Present Danger: SOUTHCOM Commander ADM Faller on U.S.-China Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere.” In his remarks, Admiral Faller addresses the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ambitions in Latin America and the Caribbean, from both an economic and strategic perspective, which support its pursuit of global dominance and the imposition of authoritarian values on international institutions. In addition, Admiral Faller highlights SOUTHCOM’s recent activities in the Western Hemisphere and suggests a practical framework to develop and sustain trusted partnerships in the region that will promote democratic values in the face of CCP coercion.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

6. Hostile Harbors: Taiwan’s Ports and PLA Invasion Plans

Author:
Ian Easton
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The scale of an all-out Taiwan (Republic of China, ROC) invasion by the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) military—the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)—defies human comprehension and would likely eclipse any historical comparison. In this important contribution to the field, Senior Director Ian Easton analyzes Chinese military studies frameworks and internal PLA documents to answer pressing questions that will help Taiwan and the United States both understand and better plan for potential crisis scenarios. He highlights the centrality of ROC port facilities—and Taiwan’s ability to defend them—in the PLA’s potential invasion plans for Taiwan, illustrating likely operational strategies explored by PLA leadership. In addition to postulating ports likely targeted in a PLA invasion, he provides recommendations that the Taiwanese government could undertake to ensure its port infrastructure security, as well as recommendations for the United States on how to be a supportive partner to Taiwan in that effort.
Topic:
Conflict, Port, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

7. Righting a Wrong: Taiwan, the United Nations, and United States Policy

Author:
Michael Mazza and Gary J. Schmitt
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Fifty years ago, on October 25, 1970, the United Nations General Assembly passed Resolution 2758, which expelled “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” from the United Nations (UN) and gave the Republic of China’s seat to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). For several years now, the UN has misread the resolution as meaning that Taiwan is a province of the PRC. Neither the resolution nor the UN Charter empowers the UN Secretary-General to make this determination. Quite to the contrary, as Michael Mazza and Gary Schmitt demonstrate in this report marking the 50th anniversary of Resolution 2758, Taiwan’s participation in the UN system would be in accord with international law and the interests of a globalized world. Absent greater flexibility from Beijing regarding Taiwan’s engagement with the UN, the authors argue, the United States should launch a full court press to achieve Taiwan’s formal membership.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, History, and International System
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

8. Tibet Leadership in Exile and the Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author:
Ellen Bork
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In this publication, Ellen Bork, Visiting Fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, examines the historical basis for Washington’s Tibet policy to demonstrate that America’s position on Tibet originates from misguided strategic assumptions about the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its ambitions in Tibet, the Indo-Pacific region, and the liberal world order. The author asserts that the time has come for Washington to revise the United States’ policy toward Tibet and its democratic government-in-exile, as a critical component of America’s free and open Indo-Pacific strategy. Leading the way, Bork provides a roadmap of recommendations for Washington, including the adoption of democratic legitimacy as the basis of Tibet policy, the enlistment of supportive democracies in establishing a unified position, prioritizing the issue at international organizations, and engaging Tibetan leadership, among others.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Diaspora, Territorial Disputes, Democracy, Leadership, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:
China, Nepal, Tibet, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

9. Preparing for the Nightmare: Readiness and Ad hoc Coalition Operations in the Taiwan Strait

Author:
Mark Stokes, Yang Kuang-shun, and Eric Lee
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Taiwan’s (Republic of China, ROC) defense readiness can be viewed from both strategic and operational perspectives. In our report, readiness is measured by both (1) the degree to which Taiwan’s government and civil society are prepared to counter coercion by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and (2) the degree to which the ROC armed forces can carry out its mission. Given the increasing likelihood of CCP use of force against Taiwan in the foreseeable future, it is in the interests of the United States and the ROC governments to improve overall defense readiness. This report evaluates the threat environment Taiwan faces and details its strategic and operational readiness, as well as the utility of ad hoc coalitions. In addition, the report highlights future opportunities for U.S. policymakers to strengthen the United States and Taiwan’s readiness in pursuit of the shared goal of peace and stability in a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Strategic Stability, Coalition, and Readiness
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

10. Watching Over the Taiwan Strait: The Role of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Taiwan’s Defense Strategy

Author:
Ian Easton, Mark Stokes, Yang Kuang-shun, Eric Lee, and Colby Ferland
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Unmanned systems are likely to transform the Taiwan Strait battle space in the coming years. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has fielded a large and increasingly sophisticated force of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) opposite Taiwan. This underscores the importance of exploiting advanced unmanned systems to deter opportunistic acts of aggression, and to defeat the PLA’s potential use of force in the event that deterrence should fail. This report examines the current state and trajectory of Taiwan’s indigenous UAV capabilities, and illuminates the role UAVs play within both Taiwan’s defense strategy and the American-led Indo-Pacific security network more broadly. In addition, this report evaluates the PLA’s organizational infrastructure designed for a Taiwan campaign, discusses cross-Strait political-military challenges, and highlights future opportunities to expand U.S.-Taiwan military and security cooperation as part of long-term strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and United States of America