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31. Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Halving the US current account deficit as a share of GDP is likely to impose a burden of $2,350 per capita on the United States, which explains why US policymakers want to postpone adjustment. The rest of the world relies on the economic stimulus of a widening US external deficit, which explains why they are not eager to see global adjustment. The paper examines three scenarios of exchange rate adjustments, calls on the Federal Reserve to take more account of the external deficit in its words and policy actions, and familiarly notes the need for US fiscal adjustment as part of an efficient adjustment process. Complementary policies are required in the rest of the world. The paper discusses the pattern of recent international capital flows and proposes an international reserve diversification standard to remove some of the uncertainty about the management of foreign exchange reserves.
Topic:
Debt, Development, and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States

32. Reform of the International Monetary Fund

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It is a pleasure to testify before the Committee again concerning your ongoing oversight of the International Monetary Fund. The topic remains of great importance, and our Institute for International Economics will in fact be holding a major conference on IMF reform on September 23 to address a number of specific proposals for strengthening and enforcing the rules of the monetary system, improving the governance of the Fund itself, reforming its lending programs, and reassessing the ways in which it might be financed in the future. All members of the Subcommittee and staff are cordially invited to participate in our event.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, Economics, and International Political Economy

33. Domestic and External Debt: The Doomed Quest for Equal Treatment

Author:
Brad Setser and Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
"Equality" has the ring of a basic value, an incontrovertible virtue. In international finance, equal treatment is enshrined in treaties and contracts. Of all the equal treatment aspirations in finance, none seems more essential to a lawyer than equal treatment of creditors holding identical legal instruments: if one is to suffer a default, surely so should the others; restructuring options available to one must be open to all without regard to the creditor's identity. Yet in the world of sovereign debt, local and foreign investors buying the same paper rarely achieve what anyone would recognize as equal treatment.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

34. The US Economic Outlook

Author:
Martin Neil Baily and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Oil prices have risen and are expected to remain high. Slow job and wage growth result in slow income growth. Low interest rates kept housing and auto sales strong after 2000 – borrowing future growth. No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy. The Iraq war and the terrorism threat may be a drag on confidence. Because 9/11 did not have significant macroeconomic effects, the impact of the war and terrorism seems to be mostly on oil prices No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Iraq

35. A Short History of the Washington Consensus

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The term “Washington Consensus” was coined in 1989. The first written usage was in my background paper for a conference that the Institute for International Economics convened in order to examine the extent to which the old ideas of development economics that had governed Latin American economic policy since the 1950s were being swept aside by the set of ideas that had long been accepted as appropriate within the OECD. In order to try and ensure that the background papers for that conference dealt with a common set of issues, I made a list of ten policies that I thought more or less everyone in Washington would agree were needed more or less everywhere in Latin America, and labeled this the “Washington Consensus.” Little did it occur to me that fifteen years later I would be asked to write about the history of a term that had become the center of fierce ideological controversy.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Washington and Latin America