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61. China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In December 2004 China's top political leadership agreed to fundamentally alter the country's growth strategy. In place of investment and export-led development, they endorsed transitioning to a growth path that relied more on expanding domestic consumption. Since 2004, China's top leadership, most notably Premier Wen Jiaobao in his speech to the National People's Congress in the spring of 2006, has reiterated the goal of strengthening domestic consumption as a major source of economic growth. This policy brief examines the reasons underlying the leadership decision, the implications of this transition for the United States and the global economy, and the steps that have been taken to embark on the new growth path.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

62. Negotiating the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott, Scott C. Bradford, and Thomas Moll
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Five years ago the Institute published Free Trade between Korea and the United States? by Inbom Choi and Jeffrey J. Schott, which analyzed the potential benefits and costs of pursuing a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). At the time, neither government had vetted the idea in bilateral consultations, though some business groups in each country—and some members of the US Congress—had voiced support for deepening US-Korea economic ties through an FTA.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Korea

63. Russia's Challenges as Chair of the G-8

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On January 1, Russia became the chair of the Group of Eight (G-8), the exclusive group of the biggest industrial democracies. This chairmanship raises many eyebrows. Russia was originally included in the G-8 to help lock in its democratic reforms, 1 but Russia is no longer even semidemocratic. Last year, US senators John McCain and Joseph Lieberman sponsored a resolution urging President Bush to work for the suspension of Russia's membership until the Russian government accepted and adhered to “the norms and standards of free, democratic societies as generally practiced by every other member nation of the Group of 8 nations.” Jeffrey Garten ( Financial Times , June 28, 2005) has called Russia's chairmanship “farcical,” saying, “Two trends are changing the world for the better—freer markets and democratization. . . . But, alone among the summit member Russia is moving in the opposite direction. . . . Moscow's leader - ship of the G-8 reduces the credibility and the relevance of the group to zero.”
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

64. The Doha Round after Hong Kong

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Trade ministers from member countries of the World Trade Organization (WTO) convened in Hong Kong in December 2005 to jump-start the flagging Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. The Hong Kong ministerial was not a complete bust. But ministers accomplished only the minimum necessary to keep the Doha Round moving forward—toward an undetermined and probably distant conclusion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia

65. A Currency Basket for East Asia, Not Just China

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China recently announced that it is adopting a basket of currencies as the peg for its exchange rate instead of the US dollar. This announcement raises questions of how such a system works, whether other East Asian countries would be advised to follow China in adopting a basket numeraire, and whether it would be advantageous to these countries if they were all to adopt the same basket. This brief answers these questions.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

66. Prospects for Regional Free Trade in Asia

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Frustrated with lackluster momentum in the WTO Doha Round and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and mindful of free trade agreement (FTA) networks centered on the United States and Europe, Asian countries have joined the FTA game. By 2005, Asian countries (excluding China) had ratified 14 bilateral and regional FTAs and had negotiated but not implemented another seven. Asian nations are also actively negotiating some 23 bilateral and regional FTAs, many with non-Asian partners, including Australia, Canada, Chile, the European Union, India, and Qatar. China has been particularly active since 2000. It has completed three bilateral FTAs—Thailand in 2003 and Hong Kong and Macao in 2004—and is initiating another 17 bilateral and regional FTAs. However, a regional Asian economic bloc led by China seems distant, even though China accounts for about 30 percent of regional GDP. As in Europe and the Western Hemisphere, many Asian countries are pursuing FTAs with countries outside the region. On present evidence, the FTA process embraced with some enthusiasm in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere more closely resembles fingers reaching idiosycratically around the globe rather than politico-economic blocs centered respectively on Beijing, Brussels, and Washington.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, Washington, Canada, India, Beijing, Asia, Australia, Qatar, Chile, Hong Kong, Brussels, and Macao

67. South Korea's Experience with International Capital Flows

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
South Korea's experience is unparalleled in its combination of sustained prosperity, capital controls, and financial crisis. Over several decades South Korea experienced rapid sustained growth in the presence of capital controls. These controls and the delinking of domestic and international financial markets were an essential component of the country's state-led development strategy. As the country developed, opportunities for easy technological catch-up eroded, requiring more sophisticated corporate and financial sector decision making. But decades of financial repression had bequeathed a bureaucratized financial system and a formidable constellation of incumbent stakeholders opposed to transition to a more market-oriented development model. Liberalization undertaken in the 1990s was less a product of textbook economic analysis than of parochial politicking. The capital account liberalization program affected the timing, magnitude, and particulars of the 1997-98 crisis. Despite considerable reforms undertaken since the crisis, concerns remain about both South Korea's lending culture and its authorities' capacity to successfully regulate the more complex financial system. The main lesson of the South Korean case appears to be that while the state-led model may deliver impressive initial gains, transitioning out of this approach presents an exceedingly complex political-economy challenge.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

68. North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004: Issues and Implementation

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It is an honor to be invited to testify before this committee. We would like to begin our testimony by restating a simple yet compelling point: The absence of human, civil, and political rights in North Korea and the humanitarian disaster that afflicts its population are inextricably linked.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

69. The Chinese Economy: Prospects and Key Policy Issues

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

70. Will Globalization Survive?

Author:
Martin Wolf
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ours is not the first age of globalization. The decades before the First World War were remarkably similar to our own era. Under the aegis of the United Kingdom and stimulated by a host of technological advances, the world enjoyed an era of liberal trade, remarkably free movement of people, and almost entirely free movement of capital. The world also enjoyed an unprecedented rise in prosperity. According to the economic historian, Angus Maddison, real GDP per head rose at a rate of 1.3 percent a year in the world as a whole between 1870 and 1913. This is not far short of the improvement of the past three decades. As table 1 shows, only Asia and Africa, both victims of colonialism, failed to share in the rising prosperity.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Asia