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51. Korean Institutional Reform in Comparative Perspective

Author:
Marcus Noland and Erik Weeks
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In recent years, academic economists have come to appreciate the centrality of public institutions in contributing to economic performance. Yet Korea, arguably the premier success story of the last half-century, has sometimes been described as a First World economy with Third World institutions. Although Korea modestly underachieves on most of the 52 institutional indicators examined in this paper, it is not an outlier, and on most indicators it is converging on global norms from below.
Topic:
International Organization and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and South Korea

52. The (Non) Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korea

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This study finds that North Korea's nuclear test and the imposition of UN Security Council sanctions have had no perceptible effect on North Korea's trade with its two largest partners, China and South Korea. Before North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test, it was widely believed that such an event would have cataclysmic diplomatic ramifications. However, beginning with visual inspection of data and ending with time-series models, no evidence is found to support the notion that these events have had any effect on North Korea's trade with its two principal partners.
Topic:
United Nations and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

53. Migration Experiences of North Korean Refugees: Survey Evidence from China

Author:
Stephan Haggard, Marcus Noland, and Yoonok Chang
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Chronic food shortages, political repression, and poverty have driven tens of thousands of North Koreans into China. This paper reports results from a large-scale survey of this population. The survey provides insight not only into the material circumstances of the refugees but also into their psychological state and aspirations. One key finding is that many North Korean refugees suffer severe psychological stress akin to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This distress is caused in part by experiences in China. However, we demonstrate that it is also a result of the long shadow cast by the North Korean famine and abuses suffered at the hands of the North Korean political regime. These traumas, in turn, affect the ability of the refugees to hold jobs in China and accumulate resources for on-migration to third countries. Most of the refugees want to permanently resettle in South Korea, though younger, better-educated refugees have a greater inclination to prefer the United States as a final destination.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

54. The Korea-US Free Trade Agreement: A Summary Assessment

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) is a historic accord that should enhance bilateral economic rela¬tions and reinforce our longstanding partnership on political and security matters. Like any negotiated deal, the KORUS FTA is not the optimal result for either country, but it provides substan¬tial benefits that make Korea and the United States considerably better off than they would be in the absence of the pact.
Topic:
Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and North Korea

55. China and Economic Integration in East Asia: Implications for the United States

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
East Asia is clearly, if gradually and unevenly, moving toward regional economic integration. Market forces are leading the process, as firms construct production chains across the area that exploit the comparative advantage of its individual countries. Governments are now moving to build on those forces, and consolidate them, through a series of formal agreements to intensify their economic relationships and start creating an East Asian Community.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

56. North Korea's External Economic Relations

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
North Korea's international transactions have grown since the 1990s famine period. Illicit transactions appear to account for a declining share of trade. Direct investment is rising, but the county remains significantly dependent on aid to finance imports. Interdependence with South Korea and China is rising, but the nature of integration with these two partners is very different: China's interaction with North Korea appears to be increasingly on market-oriented terms, while South Korea's involvement has a growing noncommercial or aid component. These patterns have implications for North Korea's development, the effectiveness of UN sanctions, and its bargaining behavior in nuclear negotiations.
Topic:
Markets and United Nations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

57. Measurement and Inference in International Reserve Diversification

Author:
Anna Wong
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper analyzes international reserve diversification by examining changes in quantity shares of currencies held in foreign exchange reserves. It discusses alternative methodologies for constructing quantity shares and applies the preferred methodology to three sets of data on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves: quarterly aggregate International Monetary Fund's Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves (IMF COFER) data, quarterly IMF COFER data for industrial- and developing-country groups, and annual data for 23 individual countries that disclose the currency composition of their foreign exchange reserve holdings. What can one infer from available data about the diversification of foreign exchange reserves since 1999? The analysis suggests four conclusions: (1) The behavior of the quantity shares of the US dollar and the euro in total reserves is consistent with net stabilizing intervention; their quantity shares tend to rise when these currencies are declining and vice versa. (2) The principal driver of this stabilizing diversification over the period 1999Q1–2005Q4 is Japan. (3) The industrial countries as a group but excluding Japan do not indicate stabilizing diversification. (4) The nonindustrial countries as a group display stabilizing diversification over short periods of only a few quarters. In summary, the aggregate data conceal much diversity in the practices of individual countries.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Asia

58. A (Lack of) Progress Report on China's Exchange Rate Policies

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This working paper assesses the progress made in improving China's exchange rate policies over the past five years (that is, since 2002). I first discuss four indicators of progress on China's external imbalance and its exchange rate policies—namely, the change in (and level of) China's global current account position, movements in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi (RMB), the role of market forces in the determination of the RMB, and China's compliance with its obligations on exchange rate policy as a member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I then discuss why the lack of progress in improving China's exchange rate policies matters for the economies of the China and the United States and for the international monetary and trading system. I also argue that several popular arguments and excuses for why more cannot be accomplished on removing the large undervaluation of the RMB are unpersuasive. Finally, I consider what can and should be done by China, the United States, and the IMF to accelerate progress over the next year or two.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

59. From Industrial Policy to Innovative Policy: Japan's Pursuit of Competitive Advantage

Author:
Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Japan faces significant challenges in encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. Attempts to formally model past industrial policy interventions uniformly uncover little, if any, positive impact on productivity, growth, or welfare. The evidence indicates that most resource flows went to large, politically influential “backward” sectors, suggesting that political economy considerations may be central to the apparent ineffectiveness of Japanese industrial policy.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Exchange, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

60. Offshoring, Outsourcing, and Production Relocation-Labor—Market Effects in the OECD Countries and Developing Asia

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This working paper evaluates the validity of available data on and the extent of the impact of offshoring on service-sector labor markets in the United States, EU-15, and Japan. A three-tier data validity hierarchy is identified. The impact of offshoring on employment in the three regions is found to be limited. Correspondingly, developing Asia is unlikely to experience large employment gains as a destination region. The paper highlights the case of the Indian IT industry, where the majority of job creation has been in local Indian companies rather than foreign multinationals. Domestic entrepreneurs have played a crucial role in the growth of the Indian IT-related service industry. However, increased tradability of services and associated skill bias in favor of higher skilled workers could have an uneven employment impact on developing Asia. Some high-skilled groups are benefiting and will continue to benefit dramatically from new employment opportunities and rising wage levels. Meanwhile, the same skill bias may eliminate many employment opportunities for unskilled or low-skilled groups in the region. Developing Asian countries therefore face a double educational challenge in the coming years: the need to simultaneously improve both primary and higher education.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Asia