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31. The Arab Spring: Challenges, Obstacles and Dilemmas

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
On the twentieth anniversary of the fall of the Soviet Union, long-standing authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen have fallen, Libya is in the fi nal stages of a civil war that toppled the forty-year rule of Muammar Gaddafi , and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria may be tottering on the brink of implosion. Through 2011, demonstrations in Bahrain and Iran have been met with force, while Morocco, Jordan, Djibouti, Iraq, Oman, and Algeria have all reported protests. The Arab Spring has not been confi ned to the Middle East and North Africa; rather, its effects have gone global, with analysts drawing attention to its ripples, ramifi cations, and the potential of "revolutionary contagion" through the greater Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, Russia and Eurasia, as well as China and East and South East Asia. Although there is broad agreement among experts and commentators who have studied the Arab Spring itself as to the scale and importance of revolutionary change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, its causes are contested, and there is little consensus as to its likely consequences and strategic effects. As Prince Hassan of Jordan noted, "The outcome of this tectonic realignment is not just unpredictable, but unknowable.
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Eurasia, Middle East, Libya, Soviet Union, Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

32. Medvedev's Proposals for a New European Security Order: A Starting Point or the End of the Story?

Author:
Ulrich Kűhn
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
On 29 November 2009, the Kremlin published the draft of a legally binding European security treaty on its website. The initiative launched by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in 2008 for the rearrangement of Europe's security order thus reached its preliminary and unexpected climax, or perhaps an inconclusive endpoint. At their core, Medvedev's proposals aim at a codification of NATO's current borders, a recovery of Russian influence in the so-called “near abroad,” and the establishment of legally binding “rules of the game” going forward in the realm of maintaining peace and stability in Europe.
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

33. The Evolution of Russian Conceptual and Political Models of High Technology Cooperation

Author:
Ivan V. Danilin
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
International cooperation in the area of high technology—in design and development, manufacturing, and distribution—is one of the most important features of the current state of innovation around the world. Outsourcing, the ability to search for talent globally, the lowering of costs by transferring production facilities to developing countries, the evolution of global supply chains, venture capitalists' tireless search for fresh ideas all over the world—all these and numerous other processes combine to shape the reality of modern highly internationalized, collaborative, and interconnected activities involved in developing innovative new technologies. Even during the recent global economic crisis, these trends persisted. In spite of the fact that Western multinational corporations (MNCs) dominate the market and still are key players in these processes, companies from China and other developing nations are actively joining the game. Russia, which has declared its intention to regain (on a new footing) its former leader- ship role in science and technology, is also looking at international cooperation in the area of high technology as a powerful and important instrument for the development of national networks of innovation and a strong innovative economy, in hopes of securing a significant future market share in global sales of high-technology goods and services. But unlike many other nations, Russia's path, strategies, and modes of cooperation are still in transition, and are affected not only by the logic of the globalized economy, but also by different political and economic challenges inherited from previous decades, as well as by the political visions of different groups of national elites.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Russia and China

34. The Dynamics of Russia's Response to the Piracy Threat

Author:
Simon Saradzhyan
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
Russia's Maritime Doctrine describes "maritime shipments" as being of "vital importance" to the country. Maritime shipments have accounted for 60 percent of Russia's foreign trade shipments in the recent years. However, vessels bearing the Russian flag account only for 4 percent of Russia's foreign trade shipments. And the Russian fishing fleet remains relatively near to Russia's shores, not venturing into the Indian and South Pacific Oceans.
Political Geography:
Russia

35. EU-Russia Energy Diplomacy: 2010 and Beyond?

Author:
Irena Dimitrova
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
There are three major players in the arena of European energy security: the European Union, its individual member states, and Russia, which is currently the EU's most important energy supplier. Other concerned parties include candidates for EU membership and those nations that aspire to candidacy. Countries through which Russian gas must travel en route to markets in Western Europe, possible gas suppliers from the Caucasus and Central Asia, and the United States also have significant roles to play. This essay focuses on researching the nature of the European Union's energy relations with Russia in terms of natural gas supply, from the perspective of the member states.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Central Asia

36. The Russo-Chinese Strategic Partnership: Oil and Gas Dimensions

Author:
Jean-Marie Holtzinger
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
This essay seeks to determine the nature of the strategic energy partnership between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, focusing on oil and gas. In particular, it will attempt to answer the question of whether there is a real and valid strategic energy partnership between the two countries. Many joint declarations, statements, and treaties on the strategic partnership have offered evidence of the good relationship between the two countries. These have been reinforced in recent years through cooperation in different fields—economy, military, and energy—underpinned by an apparently common shared vision of the world. As far as the energy partnership is concerned, many advances have been achieved in the oil and gas sectors. This results from a complementary association of both actors that gives priority to market forces, since Russia is a major oil and gas producer and China, because of its growing economy, is a major consumer. However, this strategic energy partnership is limited in scope, and is very fragile for many reasons: the Russian domestic market is growing; Europe is a more attractive partner for Russian energy exports; Russia has fears regarding China's rapid expansion in economic and geopolitical power; China's tendency to engage in active diplomacy in all directions; and the influence of Japan and South Korea on the Asian market. All factors indicate that there is at present an energy partnership between the two countries, but that it seems to be more strategic for Russia than for China.
Topic:
Disaster Relief
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

37. QJ Fall 2010 (full version)

Author:
Irena Dimitrova
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
There are three major players in the arena of European energy security: the European Union, its individual member states, and Russia, which is currently the EU's most important energy supplier. Other concerned parties include candidates for EU member- ship and those nations that aspire to candidacy. Countries through which Russian gas must travel en route to markets in Western Europe, possible gas suppliers from the Caucasus and Central Asia, and the United States also have significant roles to play. This essay focuses on researching the nature of the European Union's energy relations with Russia in terms of natural gas supply, from the perspective of the member states.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Central Asia

38. The Georgia Crisis: Implications for the Partnership for Peace

Author:
Graeme P. Herd and Daniel A. Flesch
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
On 7 August 2008, Georgia attacked Tskhinvali, the capital city of South Ossetia, with heavy artillery, rocket launchers, and ground troops in an attempt to take control of the breakaway republic, which contained bases of both Russian and OSCE peacekeepers. Russia, claiming to be acting under the mandate of peace enforcement, pushed Georgia out of both South Ossetia and another breakaway Georgian republic, Abkhazia, and deep into Georgian territory. This created the potential for regime change, as the Russian Army appeared to be moving on Tbilisi with the intent of overthrowing Georgia's democratically elected government. On 8 August 2008, Russian military forces crossed the Georgian border into South Ossetia and Abkhazia in a successful effort to repulse Georgian troops. The immediate casus belli for Russia was genocide, with claims that “over two thousand” South Ossetians had been killed by Georgian troops, along with the shooting of ten Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia, which necessitated a humanitarian and peace enforcement operation. The Russian advance included ground troops, tanks and armored personnel carriers, and air and sea operations, combined with coordinated kinetic and cyber attacks. Russian forces also crossed into Abkhazia in defense of their compatriots – 70 percent of the Abkhaz population of 220,000 are Russian passport holders, and 90 percent of the South Ossetian population of 70,000 are also Russian citizens.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Affairs, and Population
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Georgia, and South Ossetia

39. NATO Enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia: Old Wine in New Bottles?

Author:
Dušica Lazarević
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
This article examines the question of possible NATO enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia, although it will not venture to provide a firm answer as to its likelihood. The aim of the essay is to offer an accurate analysis of the aspiration of these two former Soviet republics to join the Alliance, with a primary focus on relations between the West (in this case, NATO) and Russia, the successor of the Soviet legacy. In the process, it will try to uncover the underlying principle of NATO enlargement as such. To this end, the article will use geopolitics as a theoretical background to explain the behavior of the parties involved, carefully taking into consideration the specific position of NATO as an alliance. Furthermore, it will elaborate the debates over each post-Cold War round of enlargement, with special focus on the first post-Cold War round of NATO enlargement, as this event established the fact of Alliance expansion and laid out the rules for future enlargement rounds. Studying the positions of Ukraine and Georgia in the context of cooperation with NATO, the article addresses the differences and similarities of the two countries, and examines separately their relations with NATO, Russia, and the United States. The overall conclusion is that the prospects for Ukraine and Georgia to accede to NATO membership are not bright, but at the same time they are not completely without prospects. Their ultimate outcome will depend on the terms—whether explicit or tacit— of the ongoing transatlantic bargain between the U.S. and Russia.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Ukraine, and Georgia

40. The Russian Bear: Russian Strategic Culture and What it Implies for the West

Author:
Norbert Eitelhuber
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
This essay identifies the nature of Russia's strategic culture: it is its propensity to use force to achieve strategic objectives. It argues that Western policymakers have consistently misperceived the reasons for Russian foreign policy behavior, as they fail to take into account the enduring nature of Russia's strategic culture. This article claims that Russia has a strategic culture that is fairly stable, although significant changes occurred after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Most importantly, Russia's imperial ambitions vanished, along with the desire to spread an ideology. The role of military strength as a source of power declined, while the prominence of economic power increased. In the post-Cold War era, Russia has aimed at restoring its status within a great power order, improving the standard of living for its people, and developing (or revising) its national identity. At the same time, the strategic culture that prevails in Moscow makes Russia particularly sensitive to actions taken by the West. The article concludes by examining opportunities for accommodation and constructive engagement with Russia. To attenuate the tensions that currently exist, the West should react assertively but moderately to rhetorical saber rattling and other provocations, and engage in constructive cooperation on both contemporary security threats and economic issues, including pursuing close cooperation to mitigate the effects of the international financial crisis on Russia. In the near term, the West should focus on working with Russia to develop a new concept for long-term security and stability in Eurasia. Future research should thus focus on forward-looking networked diplomacy approaches that may be suited to overcome a Cold War mindset oriented toward bloc confrontation.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia