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1. Preparing for the worst: Was North Korea’s decision to develop nuclear weapons rational?

Author:
Sanghoon Kim
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
North Korea’s foreign policy decision-making procedure is highly centralized to a single leader or, at most, a few political/military elites. While democratic governments are restrained both horizontally and vertically, authoritarian regimes are relatively free of constraints from the public. This paper examines the motivations behind North Korea’s nuclear weapons development in light of the rational deterrence model, then discusses the strategic implications of a rational, or irrational, North Korea. It concludes that North Korea’s decision to develop nuclear weapons was rationally motivated by the deteriorating security environment surrounding the state, but that this will not guarantee deterrence.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Authoritarianism, Deterrence, Denuclearization, and Rationality
Political Geography:
South Korea, North Korea, and Korean Peninsula

2. Maritime Issues in the Indo-Pacific: Building a Shared Vision of "Free and Open"

Author:
Nicholas Millward, Caitlin Doornbos, and John Bradford
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Pacific Forum, the Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies (YCAPS), and Tama University’s Center for Rule-making Strategies, with support from the US Embassy in Japan, organized a conference discussing maritime issues in the Indo-Pacific as they relate to the “Free and Open” concept. The event was hosted by the Center for Rule-making Strategies in Tokyo November 21-22, 2019. Approximately 35 senior officials, scholars, scientists, and security specialists attended in their personal capacity for an off-the-record discussion. The closed-door conference covered an array of maritime challenges including territorial conflicts, erosion of the rule of law, piracy and other criminal activities, unsustainable fishing practices, and environmental destruction. Synchronizing the efforts of uniquely qualified experts, this conference and its initiatives developed important messages for regional and global thinkers.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Navy, Maritime, and Fishing
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

3. Myanmar’s Future STC System

Author:
Phone Myint Naing
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Myanmar, with the help of the United States, European Union and World Customs Organization, is currently working to establish a strategic trade control (STC) system. It is establishing controls on dual-use items as a first step. To implement an effective STC system, Myanmar needs to have appropriate legislation, licensing procedures, enforcement practices, and industry outreach in place. Myanmar currently has a “negative list” for exports and imports (items prohibited from import/export), but in the future, will release a dual-use control list. Currently, there are no penalties or enforcement mechanisms related to STC. Myanmar needs to establish a dual-use control law and continue to cooperate with international organizations on this and other efforts.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Economic structure, Legislation, Exports, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

4. National Models for Managing Trade of Strategic Goods

Author:
Kyaw Si Thu
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The largest country in mainland Southeast Asia with a population of 53 million and located strategically between China and India, Myanmar plays a significant role geographically, economically and politically in the most rapidly advancing region in the world. As Myanmar opens up, investment and trade have grown significantly. Trade policies have been, and continue to be, revised in line with regional and global commitments and in accordance with liberal principles. According to UNSCR 1540, UN member countries have a responsibility to control the transfer, transit and production of WMD and related materials. As a UN member country, Myanmar should implement UNSCR 1540 for regional and international peace and security through the trade sector.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Economic structure, Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Asia-Pacific

5. The Gray Zone Issue: Implications for US-China Relations

Author:
Feng Jin
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The issue of gray zone conflict between the US and China has attracted much attention in recent years. “Gray” indicates actions below the threshold of war, yet beyond normal diplomacy. The fundamental characteristics of gray zone activity include that they are well-planned, designed to be ambiguous amid strategic competition, and intended to leave opponents unable to launch an effective response. What demands special attention is that gray zone activity could cause unintended escalation, and that assertive responses to them may not be the best option. For instance, the United States’ gray zone retaliation to China’s activities in the South China Sea is hardly helpful to contain China’s activities, but certainly slow the pace of resolving the South China Sea dispute through negotiation and dialogue and jeopardize bilateral strategic stability. In the United States, current studies on the gray zone issue view the activity conducted by “measured revisionists” (such as Russia, China and Iran) as a major challenge to US national interest and the US-led international order. Today, as China and the United States are dancing on the precipice of a trade war, the geopolitical rivalry between the two countries raises major concerns and the possibility of a new Cold War has been discussed with increasing frequency. Although the United States and China are highly interconnected in many ways, entanglement also creates friction. In this context, the gray zone issue between China and the United States has a significant role in the relationship. How do we understand gray zone conflict? What challenges does the current gray zone activity pose to China and the United States? What measures should be taken to address such challenges?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, War, and Peace
Political Geography:
United States and China

6. The Missing Link in Understanding South Korea’s Foreign Policy: Panmunjom Declaration and Beyond

Author:
Jong-hwa Ahn
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Republic of Korea has chosen its alignment strategies and policy actions based on international dynamics and domestic constraints. South Korea’s domestic politics have had different effects on the recent administrations. Park Geun-hye had to accept the discontinuity of her foreign policy when she faced impeachment. Moon Jae-in, however, has pursued his dreams for inter-Korean relations despite systemic and domestic obstacles. In the spirit of neoclassical realism, this study identifies state-society relations and domestic institutions as key interventions in the calculus of foreign policy behavior amidst the critical influence of systemic variables. Whereas the Park administration disregarded the dynamics of domestic politics by putting state security above all else, the Moon administration has pursued a détente policy with a deep awareness of domestic politics. In a restrictive strategic environment, South Korea’s policy options are limited and the optimal choices are not necessarily the ideal ones. Foreign policy actions based on the dynamics of systemic structures and domestic politics have significant implications for Northeast Asia. State-society relations and domestic institutions have implications for the US-South Korea-Japan strategic triangle. Different strategic interests in the region place the triangle at risk in dealing with the North Korean security problem.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Peace
Political Geography:
South Korea and Korea

7. The North Korea Nuclear Deal: Our Students Did It

Author:
Micheline Calmy-Rey and Marc Finaud
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
There is no end in sight to the North Korean nuclear problem. And yet a group of international students in Geneva, Switzerland, have sketched out the contours of a possible deal. Their work, which describes mutual concessions and when/how they should be implemented, offers each of the concerned parties some helpful ideas on how to achieve a much-needed agreement.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Nonproliferation, Denuclearization, and Students
Political Geography:
North Korea

8. Weighing Future Paths for the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Keoni Williams
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In April 2019, Pacific Forum hosted the Northeast Asia Regional Young Leaders Security Symposium (NEARYLSS), a two-day dialogue in Tokyo, Japan, during which 25 young scholars and security analysts from China, Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the United States explored regional security perspectives and opportunities for multilateral cooperation. Forming teams based on nationality, young scholars identified their country’s top regional threats in Northeast Asia and their desired, acceptable, and unacceptable outcomes for the Korean Peninsula. The shared challenge of dealing with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) provides a basis for regional cooperation, and the extent to which each team’s desired, acceptable, and unacceptable outcomes converge serves as a useful guide in determining possible scenarios on the Korean Peninsula. During off-the-record plenary discussions, country teams explained the rationale for their assessments and answered follow-up questions from other country teams. Team responses were then compiled into a win-set (Figure 1). Notable convergences and divergences observed in the win-set and plenary discussions were identified around three key themes: denuclearization, Korean reunification, and the status quo of intermittent negotiations.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Nonproliferation, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Korean Peninsula

9. China’s Digital Silk Road: Strategic Technological Competition and Exporting Political Illiberalism

Author:
Clayton Cheney
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The Digital Silk Road is the component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative that aims to establish China as the global technological superpower. While the Belt and Road Initiative is generally understood to be a foreign policy initiative, it is important to view the Digital Silk Road as both a foreign and domestically focused aspect of the initiative. The first step to analyzing this component of the Belt and Road Initiative is to create a conceptual roadmap to understand the components of the Digital Silk Road. This paper argues that it comprises four interrelated, technologically focused initiatives. First, China is investing abroad in digital infrastructure, including next generation cellular networks, fiberoptic cables and data centers. Second, it contains a domestic focus on developing advanced technologies that will be essential to global economic and military power. These advanced technologies include satellite navigation systems, artificial intelligence and quantum computing. Third, because China recognizes the importance of economic interdependence to international influence, the Digital Silk Road promotes e-commerce through digital free trade zones. Last, digital diplomacy and governance, including through multilateral institutions, are key to China creating its ideal international digital environment.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Multilateral Relatons, Digital Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Artificial Intelligence, and Silk Road
Political Geography:
China

10. China’s Growing Engagement in South Asia: Challenges for the US

Author:
Anu Anwar
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
India, often considered the natural leader of South Asia, is facing stiff competition from China. The recent tilt of the “non-nuclear five” South Asian states (i.e. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives and Bhutan) toward China has become quite visible as China has significantly increased its influence across the region through investment, trade, military ties, diplomatic and cultural initiatives. Meanwhile, the US envisages playing a more prominent role in South Asia by teaming up with India to challenge China and exert influence in the Indo-Pacific region. A key consideration in the US “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy” hinges on India’s influence in South Asia. This paper looks closely at how Chinese bilateral trade, investment, political and military ties with the “non-nuclear five” nations have evolved and how that may affect India’s ambitions in the region. Recommendations are offered for both the US and India on how they may retain their supremacy in the region despite an ambitious and resourceful China.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Economic Diplomacy, and Cultural Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, Asia-Pacific, and Indo-Pacific