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21. China: Highlights and Key Issues

Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The Chinese economy expanded by 7.4% year-on-year in Q3, down from 7.6% in Q2, but stronger than we had expected. Of particular surprise was the implied quarterly growth rate; based on the seasonally adjusted data released by the NBS, the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 9.1%, the strongest since 2011Q3.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Syria

22. Poland: Industry Forecast

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
GDP is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2012 and expand by 2.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 3.2% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2012 and expand by 5.3% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 4.3% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 25.4% in 2011 to 27.2% by 2016 and increase to 28.7% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to decline from 58.5% in 2011 to 57.2% in 2016 and fall to 56.2% in 2021.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

23. China: Industry Forecast

Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
GDP is expected to rise by 7.9% in 2012 and expand by 8.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 7.8% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 8.8% in 2012 and expand by 9.4% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 7.9% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 34.0% in 2011 to 35.1% by 2016 and increase to 35.6% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to expand from 41.7% in 2011 to 43.8% in 2016 and rise to 45.5% in 2021.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China and Israel

24. Country Economic Forecasts: Thailand

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
GDP expanded by 11% on the quarter in Q1 in seasonally adjusted terms, recovering strongly after contracting by more than 10% on the same basis in Q4 when flooding decimated the manufacturing sector. But compared with a year earlier, the economy expanded by just 0.3% in Q1, illustrating the scale of the catastrophe.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Thailand and Southeast Asia

25. Country Economic Forecasts: Czech Republic

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
GDP fell by a larger than expected 1% on the quarter in 2012Q1 according to initial data released in mid-May. As a result, we now expect GDP will fall 1.1% in 2012. On the political side, the government has avoided a snap election by surviving a confidence vote on 27 April. However, it will find it harder to stick to its austerity plans as its majority was weakened by the vote. Under current policies, we now expect the fiscal deficit to rise to 3.6% of GDP in 2012 from 3.1% in 2011 due to the weakness of the economy.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Czech Republic

26. Spain's fiscal targets should be eased

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The Spanish government has announced that the fiscal deficit for 2011 may be even worse than expected, perhaps even exceeding 8% of GDP. In response to this overshoot, the authorities have so far announced additional spending cuts and tax rises amounting to €15bn. But fiscal tightening will have to be even more severe if the government wants to meet its 4.4% of GDP deficit target for 2012.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Spain

27. The Fed moves to provide more transparency

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve has taken additional actions to make its monetary policy more transparent to markets. The latest moves include the release of FOMC members' expectatins for the federal funds rate at the end of each of the next few years and in the longer term. Another is an statement of strategy for meeting its dual mandates of price stability and full employment. Although the statement included an explicit target for inflation but not for unemployment, the equal weights given to each goal afford the Fed more discretion in setting monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

28. The Economic Impact of the Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan: What Will It Mean for Your Business?

Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The Tohoku Pacific earthquake which struck Japan on 11th March was the most serious to hit Japan since the Kobe earthquake of 1995, and was followed by a highly destructive tsunami. As well as having significant short-term economic and financial impacts, these disasters could also leave a longer-term footprint on the Japanese and global economies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Japan

29. The New Digital Economy: How it will transform business

Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
International leaders face an era of unprecedented change. The recession and financial crisis that ended in 2009 caused a seismic shift that has reshaped the global business landscape. The world economy is now characterized by sluggish growth in the West, a shift in power to the East, and value-driven customers and rising risks everywhere. At the same time, the downturn has hastened the adoption of key technologies—mobility, cloud computing, business intelligence and social media—that are transforming businesses and sparking a new wave of wealth creation, particularly in the emerging world.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Science and Technology

30. Are the advanced economies facing a lost decade?

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Recent weeks have seen a slew of weaker-than-expected data releases from the major economies, raising doubts about whether the expansion in the developed nations is sustainable. One reason for the apparent loss of momentum has been the moderation of growth in the emerging markets, as central banks have tightened monetary policy in response to rising inflation. The weakening trend in growth indicators can also be linked to temporary adverse factors, including supply chain disruptions form the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, as well as the sharp rise in oil prices earlier this year.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Japan