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1. The Recruitment of Migrant Workers By London Science and technology Firms

Author:
Andrew P. Goodwin
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Access to talent is central to London’s competitiveness. It is important that all companies can recruit the skills and experience they need to innovate and grow. Tier 2 of the UK’s visa system is the main economic route for skilled immigration from outside the European Economic Area (EEA), where the position cannot be filled by a UK/EEA national or is on the Shortage Occupation List. This report assesses the extent to which start-ups and SMEs, particularly those in the science and technology sectors, have difficulties in recruiting from outside the EEA through Tier 2. It finds that while some firms are undoubtedly facing challenges, the problem is not especially widespread across the science and technology sector as a whole. However, at least some employers are encountering difficulties with Tier 2 and a faster, better-supported, and simpler process would make a real difference to employers.
Topic:
Migration, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Immigrants
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, London, and England

2. London 2030: How Will the Capital's Economy Change

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
London’s economy is growing strongly, easily outpacing both the UK and its nearest European rivals such as Paris and Frankfurt. Significant investments in public infrastructure, office buildings, retailing, and homes all point to widespread optimism that the growth will continue, not just for the next year or two but for many years to come. But how confident should we be about London’s growth trajectory? London 2030 analyses the trajectory and magnitude of change that is likely to confront London’s economy in the decade and a half from 2015 up to 2030. The study is the result of analysis by our specialist cities forecasting team, and provides unrivalled forecast data sets and in-depth analysis of what trends imply for the scale and structure of the capital’s economy over the next fifteen years, as well as assessment of other factors that might influence growth. The full research programme is now available for purchase, and is comprised of five research papers: - Our baseline forecasts for London’s economy, population growth and employment to 2030 - A forecast comparison between our data and The London Plan - Analysis of housing trends: will a shortage of housing constrain London’s growth? - Assessment of the impact of alternate scenarios, such as a Eurozone crisis, or a stronger performance -Possible drivers of change such as the impact of new technology, or the UK leaving the EU
Topic:
Economy, Economic growth, and Investment
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London

3. The Economic Impact of Huawei in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In September 2012, Huawei commited to spending £1.3 billion in the UK. Almost three years later, the global information and communications leader is well on its way to doing just that—and with vast social and economic significance. In this report, Oxford Economics explores the contribution of Huawei to the UK economy over the three years 2012-2014, and assesses the company’s recent UK expenditure record over the five years 2013-2017, split equally between investment and procurement.
Topic:
Economics, Communications, and Investment
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

4. Fighting the Fed

Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Since the US Federal Reserve signalled that a turn in the interest rate cycle may be on the horizon, UK and to a lesser extent Eurozone interest rates have tracked US rates higher. But the UK and Eurozone economies are less well placed than the US to cope with higher interest rates. Simulations carried out on our Global Economic Model show that higher rates would be particularly harmful to the UK economy's embryonic recovery. In an attempt to stem the rise in interest rates, the Bank of England and the ECB have introduce forward guidance but with little, if any, success. Markets do not seem convinced by the Bank of England's commitment to forward guidance and are testing its resolve. It seems likely that over time both central banks may have to strengthen their forward guidance, in the case of the Bank of England by augmenting it with further quantitative easing.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

5. UK housing market: bellows to a bubble?

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The housing market is recovering, according to recent price and activity data. Post-crisis price corrections were smaller in the UK than in the US and much of Europe, and demand is now being bolstered by the government's Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes. This has given rise to some worries that the UK is in danger of inflating another house price bubble. While housing supply is very tight, we are not convinced that these schemes will have enough impact on demand to cause prices to take off.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

6. Is the recovery sustainable in the US and Europe?

Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Following the worst recession since the 1930s, the US, UK and Eurozone economies have all now returned to positive growth. With the boost from policy stimulus and the inventory cycle peaking, however, this raises questions about the sustainability of the current rebound. The analysis presented here suggests that the recoveries in both the US and Europe will be relatively muted compared to recent historical experience. The US is likely to be the growth leader, reflecting the more dynamic nature of its economy and financial sector. A key uncertainty relates to how labour markets will perform during the recovery phase. To date, the rise in US unemployment been particularly severe when compared to the experience of Europe. In light of the sharp falls in European productivity, we expect employment gains in Europe to be more muted in the recovery phase than in the US. The performance of residential real estate markets also remains important. Home prices in the US are now close to fair value by most metrics, suggesting that the correction in prices is likely to be bottoming out. In Europe, only Spain and Ireland appear to be in the midst of substantial housing market corrections. Commercial real estate markets are also facing ongoing corrections in many countries. While conditions in the US and Eurozone may deteriorate further, commercial property values appear to be stabilising in the UK following earlier sharp declines. The ability of the banking sector to finance the economic recoveries in the US and Europe remains a key risk to the growth outlook. As the process of absorbing credit losses and rebuilding capital is likely to be protracted, the normalisation of lending standards is likely to take longer than following recent recessions. This is a particular concern for the Eurozone, where bank funding is more important for companies. Whether domestic demand in the US and Europe recovers will also depend on whether private sector deleveraging has further to run. The destruction of household net wealth in the US suggests that the personal savings rate has further to rise, whereas there no longer appears to be a pressing need for households in the UK and Eurozone to consolidate their balance sheets. In contrast, non-financial corporations in the US are in a stronger financial position than their European peers, having not increased debt levels as rapidly during the credit boom. Risks around public finances have received the most attention in recent weeks. In particular, the adjustments underway in Greece pose a risk of potential contagion from sovereign credit risk that could threaten growth on both sides of the Atlantic.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

7. The economic contribution of ports to the UK economy

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Ports are vital for the health of the UK economy and the movement of its population. They are gateways into the UK for trade and travel. Over 95% of UK imports and exports by volume and 75% by value pass through the country's ports. In terms of tonnage handled, the UK ports sector is the largest in Europe. In 2007, UK ports handled 580 million tonnes of freight. In 2007, 24.8 million international sea passengers went through UK ports. Nearly three quarters of journeys were to France. Another 14 per cent were to the Republic of Ireland. In 2007, 24.2 million domestic sea passengers traveled between ports in the UK. Sea crossings comprised 4.0 million of these journeys. Inter island journeys the remaining 20.2 million. Of which 10.7 million trips were between Hampshire and Isle of Wight and 8.0 million between the Scottish islands.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

8. An Indispensable Relationship: Economic Linkages between the UK and the rest of the European Union

Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Business for New Europe has requested Oxford Economics to undertake a study detailing the economic ties between the UK and the rest of the European Union (EU), and where possible, quantify them according to a number of parameters such as trade, labour force, tourism, FDI, portfolio investments and banking linkages. In the context of the current economic situation, there is a growing need for increased economic integration and cooperation between partner countries. Therefore, it is particularly relevant to review the importance of the economic links between the UK and the rest of the EU. These inter-relations have come to the fore since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Analysing the impact of the credit crunch on UK-EU relations is not within the scope of this report.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. The Economic Outlook for London

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The present recession, which had its origins in the global financial crisis that began to unfold in mid-2007, has hit London's economy hard. And in the face of ongoing financial sector constraints, a debt overhang and rising unemployment, a strong bounce in the immediate future – of the kind seen in the wake of the early1990s recession – cannot be realistically expected. Nevertheless, Oxford Economics' forecasts show the recovery in the capital gaining traction by 2011, with growth into the medium term matching the robust performance of the decade prior to the recession. We expect growth over the period 2011-2019 to outstrip that of the rest of the UK and of most comparable cities across the western world.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London