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1. The Central African Republic – a history of a collapse foretold?

Author:
Morten Bøås
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Political instability and administrative weakness have been permanent features of the Central African Republic (CAR) ever since independence. This is, therefore, the history of a collapse foretold. Michel Djotodia may have had good intentions when he put together the Séléka alliance; the problem was that the only thing that kept it together was the desire to get rid of François Bozizé. When Bozizé was gone, the coalition's internal coherence also disappeared. Thus, for lack of other options, the alliance members continued to make their livelihoods based on plunder. As the situation worsened, the communities plundered established their own militias, and the stage was set for a simmering sectarian conflict between Christians and Muslims. It is in this mess of communal violence that the international forces are supposed to re-establish law and order. The main challenge, however, is how to avoid adding fuel to the sectarian fire. The international forces must tread carefully, and any attempt at disarming militias must be conducted with this in mind. What has happened and is happening is tragic, but it is neither genocide nor a full-blown sectarian conflict. This can still be avoided if the international forces behave impartially with regard to the two main religious communities in the country.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Religion, Sectarian violence, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Negotiations and possible spoilers in the Colombian peace process

Author:
Jorge M. Battaglino
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP) have generated considerable attention among the international community and a substantial level of domestic political support. This optimistic trend is linked to a new negotiating dynamic in which the government decided to abandon a militarised approach to the conflict and acknowledged the guerrilla movement as a legitimate political actor, while the FARC-EP opted to moderate its historical radical demands. The reasons behind this mutual moderation are both strategic and the result of a social learning process (i.e. the “prolonged” conflict). This encouraging scenario, however, faces two potential challenges, i.e. to neutralise the emergence of spoilers of the peace talks and deal with the fragmentation/criminalisation of the FARC-EP. This expert analysis analyses the new negotiating dynamic, identifies the main challenges to the peace process, and indicates how guarantor states and the international community can contribute to reducing domestic political opposition in order to reach a durable agreement.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Negotiation, FARC, Dialogue, Peace Process, and Spoilers
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

3. Promoting inclusion in political settlements: a priority for international actors?

Author:
Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
There is growing evidence of the importance of inclusive political settlements in enabling a sustainable exit from conflict, particularly in contexts where exclusion has been a major conflict driver. Similarly, at the policy level many international actors working in fragile contexts are seeking to strengthen their work on political settlements, including by promoting greater inclusion in political settlement bargaining processes and outcomes. This report seeks to draw out some key lessons for international engagement on political settlements in fragile contexts. The report summarises the current evidence about the importance of inclusive political settlements in different types of fragile context. It also discusses what forms, levels, and processes of inclusion are both desirable and possible. It goes on to explore lessons from three countries – Rwanda, Guatemala and Nepal – where exclusion was a key driver of conflict and inclusive political settlements have been a central element of peacebuilding, albeit in very different ways. Finally, the report examines the role international actors can and do play in shaping political settlements in fragile states and discusses some of the main entry points, dilemmas and challenges they may face in promoting greater inclusion in political settlements.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, Settlements, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Nepal, Central America, Rwanda, and Guatemala

4. Colombia, the peace process and the political participation of the armed groups

Author:
Felipe Gómez Isa
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
One of the key indicators to determine the degree of success of any given peace process is the stable participation in national politics of former members of armed groups in rebellion against the state. In the case of Colombia, the traditionally exclusive nature of its political system explains why both the enlargement of spaces for democratic participation and the political participation itself of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People's Army (FARC-EP) have become key issues to be discussed at the talks in Havana. It would be highly desirable for the obstacles and reticence evinced by specific political sectors to be overcome so that the current peace process can result in both the political participation of the demobilised members of the FARC-EP and greater democracy in Colombia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

5. MINUSMA: first steps, achievements and challenges

Author:
Isaline Bergamaschi
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This policy brief deals with the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). It explains its first achievements and the two main challenges it has faced so far: issues of leadership, including co-ordination between actors and capacities, on the one hand, and issues related to security conditions and the absence of peace, on the other. Finally, the policy brief proposes some recommendations to the actors involved – MINUSMA itself (i.e. its civilian and military personnel) and the UN member states supporting it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Peace Studies, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

6. Saudi Arabia's domestic sectarian politics

Author:
Madawi al-Rasheed
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Saudi regime has a vested interest in the Saudi public remaining fragmented and unable to bridge the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide. Both Shia and Sunnis in Saudi Arabia have been invigorated by the ongoing Arab uprisings, and in their own regions have staged minor protests demanding similar rights. However, the regime's entrenched sectarian propaganda has succeeded in isolating the Shia and delaying a confrontation with Sunni Islamists. In the short term this may be a successful strategy, but in the long term it may fail to contain the frustration of Saudis who want serious political reform.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Saudi Arabia

7. Israel's internal frontier: the enduring power of ethno-nationalism

Author:
Cathrine Thorleifsson
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the paradox of Mizrahim (Arab Jews) supporting right-wing Israeli policies through a case study of the border town of Kiryat Shemona. Based on ethnographic research, it illuminates the enduring power of ethno-nationalism and demonstrates how it affects Mizrahi lives. Mizrahim became trapped by Israeli nation-building on the geographic and socioeconomic margins of the state positioned between the dominant Ashkenazi elite and the Palestinian population. Factors such as Mizrahim's partial inclusion in the nation; tensions between Jews and Arabs, and between the secular and the religious; the decline of the welfare state; and a shared perception of threats and dangers informed everyday nationalism in the town. Mizrahim contested Ashkenazi Israeliness through ethnic and transnational identifications and practices. Simultaneously, their support for the nation-in-arms and identification as "strong"and "civilised" reinforced the dominant logic of ethno-nationalism. Mizrahi support for right-wing militarism is likely to persist as long as national unity is used as a colonial practice by the centre. The inclusion of Mizrahim as equals together with other marginalised citizens would necessarily entail an Israeli Spring.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Nationalism, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

8. "We are one, but we are different": Murle identity and local peacebuilding in Jonglei State, South Sudan

Author:
Diana Felix da Costa
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Despite the Murle group being politically and economically marginalised, local and national political and popular discourses portray this group as the main aggressor in South Sudan's Jonglei State. This widely asserted narrative ignores the fact that responsibility for the cycle of violence in Jonglei rests with all those perpetrating violence and certainly not solely with one group. While sharing an overarching ethnic identity, when it comes to issues of peacebuilding, the Murle can be neither seen nor treated as a consolidated group. Rather, there are cattlekeeping Murle living in the lowlands of Pibor county and agrarian Murle living in the Boma Plateau; there are also age-sets, clans and many other differentiating factors. Accusing all Murle of responsibility for violence only serves to magnify the sense of marginalisation and isolation felt by the Murle as a whole. This policy brief seeks to address some of the differences between the cattlekeeping lowlands Murle and the cultivating highlands Murle from the Boma Plateau. By doing so, it highlights the importance of understanding cultural specificities and the local political economy and, when it comes to peacebuilding, of differentiating who is responsible for a specific conflict and who has influence over those responsible.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

9. Tunisia after Ben Ali: retooling the tools of oppression?

Author:
Derek Lutterbeck
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Tunisia under Ben Ali was a police state par excellence and reforming the country's internal security apparatus has thus been one of the major challenges since the long-standing autocrat's fall. This policy brief examines the various efforts to reform Tunisia's internal security system in the post-Ben Ali period and the challenges this process faces. It argues that reforms in this area have been limited so far, focusing mainly on purges rather than on broader structural or institutional reform of the country's police force. Moreover, not only have human rights violations committed by the police – despite important improvements – continued on a significant scale, but there are also concerns that the police will once again be instrumentalised for political purposes, this time by the Ennahda-led government. Indications to this effect have included in particular the seeming complacency of the police vis-à-vis the growth in religiously inspired violence. The recent killing of opposition leader Chokri Belaid in the first political assassination in Tunisia since Ben Ali's fall has further underscored the need to reform the country's internal security system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Arabia and North Africa

10. On the eve: Afghan views of the future as foreign forces withdraw

Author:
Jonathan Steele
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
With two years left before the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan completes its mission, Afghans are in a state of confusion and uncertainty about their individual prospects and their country's fate. Interviews with a wide range of government and opposition politicians, civil society activists and ordinary Afghans reveal disappointment with the results of 11 years of foreign involvement, and anxiety that the coming years will bring economic hardship and greater political violence and insecurity
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan