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1. Return to war in South Sudan

Author:
Gunnar M. Sørbø
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
While the crisis in South Sudan that started in December 2013 was triggered by a power struggle in the ruling party (SPLM), the causes for the rapid breakdown of peace run deep. Over time, several rebel groups were integrated into the army (SPLA) without resolving the causes of their rebellions. The army therefore became a coalition of ethnic militias loyal to their commanders, and when the shooting started in Juba, the country blew apart along these fault lines. However, the idea that there are two discernible camps – i.e. a Dinka-dominated government and a Nuer-dominated opposition – is grossly inaccurate. South Sudan has been at odds with itself for a long time. A weak but centralised government, scarce resources, patronage politics, the legacy of war, and a lack of peace dividends have provided a recipe for crisis and collapse for years. While Uganda's military involvement has given the conflict a dangerous regional dynamic, the greater challenge will be to move beyond striking a narrow peace deal between the main belligerents that will likely only restore the status quo. In order to reach a sustainable political solution a comprehensive rethink of South Sudan's national project is required that will address the root causes of the conflict.
Topic:
Political Violence and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, South Sudan, and Juba

2. The Egyptian conundrum

Author:
Rabab el-Mahdi
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The puzzle of Egypt's apparently wild swings from the Mubarak regime to a Muslim Brotherhood government and then back to a military dictatorship have been manipulated to fit the simplistic linear and binary categorical models of democratic transition, with an emphasis on procedural outcomes, when in fact deeper structural issues are at stake. Three challenges explain mainstream Egyptians' choices and the tumultuous path the revolution has been following. The first is the structural economic crisis facing Egypt, coupled with lack of state administrative capacity, which no government has been able to effectively deal with. The second is the repercussions of Egypt's post-colonial history, which as a consequence tends to see the army as the "saviour" and "liberator" of the nation. The third is the failure of alternative groups to to provide solid political alternatives for the majority to rally around against the two reactionary poles and their inability to devise strategies to break loose from and reconstruct the hegemonic discourse . Consequently, international actors who throw their weight behind one reactionary faction or the other based solely on pragmatic considerations of their ability to bring about stability will be backing the wrong horse.
Topic:
Economics, Islam, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

3. Colombia, the peace process and the political participation of the armed groups

Author:
Felipe Gómez Isa
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
One of the key indicators to determine the degree of success of any given peace process is the stable participation in national politics of former members of armed groups in rebellion against the state. In the case of Colombia, the traditionally exclusive nature of its political system explains why both the enlargement of spaces for democratic participation and the political participation itself of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People's Army (FARC-EP) have become key issues to be discussed at the talks in Havana. It would be highly desirable for the obstacles and reticence evinced by specific political sectors to be overcome so that the current peace process can result in both the political participation of the demobilised members of the FARC-EP and greater democracy in Colombia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

4. Yemen's domestic and regional politics

Author:
Bernard Haykel
Publication Date:
05-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Yemen is politically fragmented by three decades of misrule. Many political actors and constituencies oppose the Salih legacy and they need to be included in any future political framework if the country is to become stable. The main regional actor is Saudi Arabia, whereas the U.S. remains the principal hegemon in the region. Saudi Arabia's policy towards Yemen is in flux, whereas the U.S. is too narrowly focused on the threat posed by al-Qaeda. Unless the U.S. and the Saudis change their policies, Yemen will not develop a strong central government.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, Islam, Armed Struggle, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

5. On the eve: Afghan views of the future as foreign forces withdraw

Author:
Jonathan Steele
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
With two years left before the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan completes its mission, Afghans are in a state of confusion and uncertainty about their individual prospects and their country's fate. Interviews with a wide range of government and opposition politicians, civil society activists and ordinary Afghans reveal disappointment with the results of 11 years of foreign involvement, and anxiety that the coming years will bring economic hardship and greater political violence and insecurity
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Peace Studies, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

6. Boko Haram and the resilience of militant Islam in northern Nigeria

Author:
Roland Marchal
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Northern Nigeria is coping with a violent underground group, Boko Haram, that has been able to carry out attacks mainly in northern states, but also in Abuja by bombing the United Nations Nigerian headquarters. The targeting of prisons, barracks, security officers and politicians makes the lay population feel unsafe, since violence has become unpredictable. The state apparatus is so visibly challenged that it tends to overreact and actually kills even more civilians than Boko Haram does.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, United Nations, and Nigeria

7. Rivalries for authority in Libya

Author:
Nicolas Pelham
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Throughout their ten-month campaign to topple Colonel Qaddafi, Libya's opposition forces struggled to reconcile two competing streams. While fighters fired with revolutionary zeal rushed off to the front, politicians tried to establish a semblance of order in the territory that these fighters had won. Since the fall of Tripoli in August 2011 tensions have escalated into a power struggle between the thuwar, or militia forces, waving the banner of revolution, and the architects of would be reconstruction, seeking stability to give their designs foundation. As elections approach in mid- June 2012, this rivalry is coming to a head. Both sides view the ballot as the seminal event that could break the deadlock and signal the transfer of power from centrifugal revolutionary forces to a sober central authority.
Topic:
Civil War, Armed Struggle, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

8. The threat of growing extremism in Punjab

Author:
David Hansen
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
During the last few years Punjab has experienced a deep social crisis in which Islamist organisations have been able to challenge the Pakistani authorities' power – as certain Islamist organisations, including extremist ones, increasingly are filling the role of welfare providers to the people. Punjab is experiencing a shift from the traditional Barelvi (Sufi) Islam towards more orthodox interpretations of the faith – often in quite radical variants. Some of the most important extremist Islamist organisations instrumental in this reorientation have become involved in criminal activity and in settling scores between competing bodies at the local level. Local judiciary, police and politicians often function as enablers for the extremists. This is not only troublesome for Pakistan: rising radical Islamist tendencies can be witnessed in Norway among certain Norwegian-Pakistanis. This policy brief describes some initial findings regarding the potential consequences of Punjab's social crisis, its patterns of extremism and the reorientation of religion in the province. It argues that in addition to being problematic for Pakistan, this development may have an adverse effect on diaspora communities living in the West.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

9. Salvaging Sinai

Author:
Nicolas Pelham
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The August 5th 2012 attack that killed 16 Egyptian soldiers in the nexus where Gaza, Egypt and Israel meet has spurred Egypt's greatest effort to reassert its authority over the Sinai since recovering the territory from Israel in 1982. Nevertheless, armed Bedouin groups backed by jihadi allies continue to confound their efforts. Only the integration of Sinai's Bedouin into Egypt's security, political and economic fabric will restore the buy-in of the indigenous population that is vital for both the success of the country's military campaign and the stabilisation of this strategic corridor linking Asia to Africa – and of post-revolutionary Egypt itself. The identities of the attackers have yet to be made public. Most were likely Sinai Bedouin, with perhaps some Palestinian support. But the fact that this attack is not an isolated incident and has been succeeded and preceded by many others suggests that North Sinai has become an environment for the killing of Egyptian soldiers and the destruction of Egyptian installations. This report examines the causes of the prevailing anti-government temperament in North Sinai, which is home to approximately 75% of Sinai's half a million people; tracks the development of quasi self-rule since the fall of Mubarak; and offers a few suggestions for the stabilisation of Sinai within a future regional economic and security framework.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

10. Is a military intervention in Mali unavoidable?

Author:
Roland Marchal
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
No clear settlement of the crisis in Mali seems possible in the short term, despite a UN Security Council resolution on October 12th paving the way for a military intervention by ECOWAS countries. The crisis is fed by various dynamics that need to be reconciled for peace to prevail. Firstly, the transition in Bamako is going nowhere, and further divisions in the government and the resurgence of the coup makers undermine the fragile progress witnessed in July. Unable to agree on a solution in Bamako, most political actors have developed a militaristic approach to any solution for the north. Secondly, Islamist and jihadist movements were able to gain control of northern Mali (two-thirds of the country) in a few months and have enforced new rules inspired by their understanding of Islam. Although protests erupted in several cities, the militants deepened their control over the region and its local and transnational economy and may have a constituency among the population. ECOWAS, supported by France, is willing to intervene militarily, but the fragmentation of the Malian army is a key weakness. Moreover, ECOWAS has not spelled out the actual aims of its intervention: mere territorial gains without addressing local and national grievances may mean the return of the status quo ante, which would be unacceptable to most people in northern Mali. As usual, the long-term political dimensions of the ECOWAS intervention are dismissed in favour of an immediate military victory that would be very fragile as a result.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Africa, France, and Northern Mali