Search

Begin New Search Publishing Institution NATO Defense College Publication Year within 10 Years

61. Will artificial intelligence challenge NATO interoperability?

Author:
Martin Dufour
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO has arguably been the most successful alli- ance of its kind, and much of this success can be attributed to its cohesion in the face of various threats. At the heart of this cohesion lie two import- ant notions: burden sharing between members; and interoperability. The Alliance’s cohesion however has increasingly come under pressure over the last two decades, and there are growing challenges with the level of interoperability between member coun- tries. While numerous technical and political factors influence interoperability, the emergence of disrup- tive technologies such as genetic engineering, nano- technology, additive manufacturing and robotics, are likely to make this challenge more acute in the next two decades. Of the many technologies rapidly emerging, none is likely to have as significant an impact as that of artificial intelligence, which combines with other technologies and multiply their effect by allowing the development of advanced autonomous systems. And while the latter holds the promise of develop- ing new classes of weapons with great military po- tential, its asymmetrical adoption among the various NATO allies could also lead to significant interoper- ability problems.
Topic:
NATO, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

62. Projecting Stability: Elixir or Snake Oil?

Author:
Ian Hope
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
NATO’s internal security is intrinsically linked to external stability, and its quest for optimal security for its member states’ citizens therefore requires a presence at its periphery. This is what Projecting Stability is about. With this concept and activity, NATO takes stock of the indivisibility of security that is no longer composed of two distinct spaces. This is probably not new. After all, NATO’s crisis management and cooperative security efforts over the last 25 years have had a lot to do with handling the consequences of the internal-external security nexus. To a large extent therefore, NATO has been in the business of Projecting Stability since the end of the Cold War, just as Molière’s Mr Jourdain was speaking in prose without knowing it. Nonetheless, the Projecting Stability agenda was formalized at the 2016 Warsaw Summit, and is now being run in parallel with Deterrence and Defence as NATO’s main effort. This poses at least three sets of questions. First, beyond the above-mentioned internal-external security nexus, what is it that Projecting Stability is really about and aims to achieve? How does stability relate to security, and how can one “project” it? Does it contain a value-promotion agenda, or is the concept a retrenchment from the ambitious democratization goals of the past? Second, to what extent can Projecting Stability be prioritized, given the prominence of the Russian threat and therefore the necessity to “deter and defend”? Can NATO do both? And how much consensus is there among NATO member states on the need for Projecting Stability? Third, where is Projecting Stability supposed to happen, with what local buy-in and level of intrusiveness, and through what sets of instruments? Does the activity carry potential unintended consequences by which, in lieu of Projecting Stability, the Alliance’s presence would bring instability? Are there any past activities that attest to this risk, and about which lessons must be learned? Overall, is Projecting Stability an elixir, i.e. the appropriate response to a well- posed question, or is it rather some sort of snake oil, i.e. a false solution or a concept that is doomed to stumble against innumerable political and operational obstacles? These issues are what Ian Hope’s edited volume Projecting Stability – Elixir or XII Snake Oil? aims to explore. It does so through a collection of chapters, authored by a group of scholars and NATO officials, which offer an open analysis of the potential and challenges of Projecting Stability. This NDC Research Paper is the first issue of a new series created by the NATO Defense College. NDC Research Papers deal with NATO-related issues from a multiplicity of angles that can be historical, political, operational or prospective; they can have an obvious research – or, even more so, policy – angle; they are analytical in nature, and must be relevant to the understanding of NATO’s challenges and policy making. May this NDC Research Paper be the first of a long list of analytically sound, thought-provoking, and academically rigorous publications by the NDC Research Division.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

63. NATO-EU maritime cooperation: for what strategic effect?

Author:
Stefano Marcuzzi
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
EU-NATO maritime cooperation is essential to a co- ordinated response to a variety of Mediterranean is- sues, including terrorist threats, the protracted conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the refugee emergency. The EU’s Operation EUNAV- FOR Med Sophia is deployed in the Southern-Central Mediterranean, whilst NATO’s Operation Sea Guard- ian operates in the whole Mediterranean basin. NATO also launched a new activity in the Aegean in 2016. Although each operation has its own mandate, their coordination was defined as crucial in the 2016 Joint Declaration on EU-NATO cooperation. At a tactical level, these operations have by and large been successful in enhancing situational awareness in the Mediterranean; monitoring migration networks; constraining the activity of human and arms smug- glers on the high seas; and to a degree in providing as- sistance to migrants. However, they also face strategic challenges, including the failure to dismantle the smug- glers’ networks, their relatively low deterrent effect, and a limited degree of inter-institutional cooperation.
Topic:
NATO, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

64. New Armies for a New Era Decrypting post-2011 Arab Military Reform Trends

Author:
Eleanore Ardemagni and Umberto Profazio
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Th e reaction of the Arab armies to the 2011 uprisings is a subject that has been frequently examined, but the evolution and reform of Arab armies is a neglected topic.2 In times of global interdependence, the Atlantic Alliance must be ready to understand and interact with a changing Middle East, since NATO Arab partners’ security is more and more NATO’s security, in terms of shared objectives, common threats and cooperative security. Arab armies have entered a new era: traditional obstacles to military reform, mostly due to their politicization, persist; other variables emerge from the interaction of domestic, foreign and transnational threats.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

65. Closing Sweden’s Military Security Defi cit: the National Debate on NATO Membership

Author:
Ian Anthony and Carrie Weintraub
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Th e National Security Strategy published by the Swedish government in January 2017 underlines that the security challenges facing the country are complex and subject to rapid change. One current challenge is the re-emergence of traditional forms of power politics, including in the Baltic Sea region, which is described as one of the main areas of friction between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).2
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

66. Russian Forward Military Basing in Armenia and Moscow’s Infl uence in the South Caucasus

Author:
Can Kasapoglu
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
In military history, bastions were defensive strongholds, mostly with a pentagonal outline, which off ered perfect combat emplacements for crossfi re. Th ereby, they off ered excellent advantages to defenders and enabled counter-balancing capabilities against besiegers’ artilleries. Sébastien Le Prestre de Vauban, a famous French military engineer, Marshal of France (mid-17th to early 18th centuries), and a master of the bastion system along with other fortifi cations, even designed ‘bastioned towers’ to protect main walls by fl anking enemy fi re.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. The Western Balkans and the Revenge of History

Author:
Ian Hope
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Th e Warsaw Summit affi rmed Alliance interest in and commitment to many geographic regions and nations, without stating priorities. Th e Western Balkans drew attention, with Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro receiving specifi c mention in the Summit Communiqué.2 However, the Summit promoted a continuance of current NATO activity in this region, not a shift or amelioration. Implicit in this is that the status quo, a small NATO force in Kosovo to enhance security and several liaison offi ces to monitor partnership activity and the application of the Membership Action Plan in the other Western Balkans states, is suffi cient. Th is paper will argue that such eff orts are too small and disjointed to meet the growing challenges in the region, especially given NATO’s obligation to confl ict prevention in the wake of its signifi cant and successful interventions there in 1996 and 1999.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

68. NATO in the Black Sea: What to Expect Next?

Author:
Zviad Adzinbaia
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
Black Sea security directly impacts the economic development, peace and stability of the Euro-Atlantic theater. NATO and the EU, as well as their members and partners, have immense interests in ensuring a secure and prosperous environment in the Black Sea, advancing trade relations through the East-West corridor, and further promoting the notion of a Europe “whole, free and at peace.”
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

69. Trust (in) NATO Th e future of intelligence sharing within the Alliance

Author:
Jan Ballast
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
On 21 October 2016, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) appointed its fi rst Assistant Secretary General for Intelligence and Security (ASG-I&S), Dr. Arndt Freiherr Freytag von Loringhoven.2 His appointment was the result of a meeting of the North Atlantic Council (NAC) on 8-9 July 2016 in Warsaw, where the Heads of State and Government stated the requirement to strengthen intelligence within NATO.3 In doing so, the Alliance underlined that improved cooperation on intelligence would increase early warning, force protection and general resilience.4
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

70. The Evolution of the Hybrid Threat, and Resilience as a Countermeasure

Author:
Uwe Hartmann
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The year 2014 marks a strategic ‘inflection point’ in world history. To make sense of the new security challenges, NATO offi cials and member states’ governments have used the term ‘hybrid warfare,’2 although some scholars have criticized it as a buzzword lacking a clear defi nition. However, since hybrid warfare is rather more about exploiting the vulnerabilities of statecraft than about destroying armed forces, states have slightly diff erent understandings of it consistent with their own specifi c security challenges. Consequently, for scientifi c research, as well as for security organizations such as NATO, finding a common definition is not easy and probably not useful.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus