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2. The Hashd al-Shaabi and Iraq Subnationalism and the State
- Author:
- Dylan O’Driscoll and Dave van Zoonen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- This report views the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation Forces, PMF) as having played an intrinsic role in the provision of security in Iraq since the dramatic rise of the Islamic State (IS). However, through the lens of nationalism it analyses the negative role the PMF may play once IS is defeated. The report therefore presents suggestions to deal with the perceived threat of the PMF in the short to medium term.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Iraq
3. Yet Another War in Shingal: The Sword of Damocles
- Author:
- Tomáš Kaválek
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- On 3 March, clashes erupted between the PKK-linked forces and the KDP’s Rojava Peshmerga near Khanasor in the district of Shingal. These events now more than ever highlight the need for a negotiated compromise between the KRG and the PKK; and for the international community to actively intervene.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
4. Iraq and Libya: common challenges for the years ahead
- Author:
- Irene Costantini
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Iraq and Libya are facing similar challenges: addressing the hurdles of socio-economic recovery in areas liberated from the Islamic State (IS); facing a fiscal crisis in the midst of continuous political tensions; and striking a power balance between central and local authorities, serving the interests of the people.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
5. The Catch-22 in Nineveh: The Regional Security Complex Dynamics between Turkey and Iran
- Author:
- Tomáš Kaválek and Athanasios Manis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that the future political stability of Nineveh depends on a two-level normalisation. A potential agreement between competing local actors, such as Baghdad and Erbil, is not the only necessary condition to stabilise the area. It also requires that Turkey and Iran decide to desecuritise Nineveh to the extent that it ceases to play the role of a buffer zone in the Middle East regional security complex. This argument is underpinned by the close examination of Turkey’s and Iran’s involvement together with their respective local allies in Nineveh in the post-2014 period. Developments referring to the cases of Bashiqa, Shingal, Tal Afar, as well as activities in favour or against Mosul leaders’ post-Islamic State (IS) vision illustrate that Nineveh’s securitisation has transcended Iraq’s borders. All in all, Turkey and Iran are vying for greater influence in Nineveh, or at least attempting to ensure that it will not become a satellite area of a competing power. Partly through their direct diplomatic and military engagement, but most importantly through their military and economic support to their local allies, the two regional powers pursue their security and diplomatic goals. At the same time, their involvement in the area has compounded the friction between local actors. Accordingly, the paper argues that in order to avoid greater polarisation in Nineveh and prepare the ground for constructive negotiations in the post-IS environment, Turkey and Iran should work on institutionalising their relationship beyond trade. Working together on issues of security between them, but also specifically in Nineveh, would improve trust and confidence in their relationship and help overcome the catch-22.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Turkey
6. Iran and its Opposition Kurdish Parties: The Need for Dialogue
- Author:
- Hawraman Ali
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Iran and its opposition Kurdish groups have been involved in intermittent armed conflict for decades. Considering the new political realities of the region and the domination of US politics by the Republicans after the recent election, Iran should engage in dialogue with its Kurdish opposition parties.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Kurdistan
7. A Transitioning Turkey: Out with the Old, in with the New?
- Author:
- Athanasios Manis
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Turkey is experiencing a crisis of orientation in its internal and external affairs as a result of a transition between a dying and an emerging vision. The end of the current transitional period will not necessarily mark the end of the country’s crisis, but most probably its entrenchment or deepening.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
8. Competing Interests in Shingal: Yazidis Caught Between Millstones
- Author:
- Tomáš Kaválek
- Publication Date:
- 11-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Nearly two years since the north side of Shingal was liberated from the Islamic State, most of the Yazidi population is still displaced. Yazidis are trapped between millstones of the competition of exogenous actors, such as the KDP, the PKK-linked forces, and Baghdad, over the control of the strategically important disputed territory of Shingal.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
9. Governing Nineveh After the Islamic State: A Solution for All Components
- Author:
- Dylan O’Driscoll and Dave van Zoonen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- This paper lays out three administrative options for the post-Islamic State governance of Nineveh and analyses the benefits and drawbacks related to each option. Despite minorities and international lobbying groups tied to the minorities favouring separate minority provinces, this paper argues against the formation of a Nineveh Plain province. A separate province would prevent efforts for reconciliation, is likely to induce new conflicts, and will ultimately not benefit minorities in the ways proponents of the plan claim. Similarly, the paper highlights that although decentralisation to the province through Law 21 could address a number of important issues, it would leave minorities in Nineveh too vulnerable to being marginalised and politically dominated by Sunnis. The main argument, and thus recommendation, of the paper is that the best available option for all components of Nineveh is the creation of a Nineveh federal region with entrenched power sharing and decentralisation within the region. This will provide the components of Nineveh with a political arena in which to address and overcome differences, while protecting minorities as well as Sunnis from being marginalised. Moreover, the creation of a region for Nineveh will have a stabilising effect on the wider Iraqi political system.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
10. The Future of Mosul: Before, During, and After the Liberation
- Author:
- Dylan O'Driscoll
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The post-conflict planning following the 2003 invasion of Iraq was weak at best and as a result many elements were at play that led to the marginalisation and political disenfranchisement of the Sunni community. Consequently, radical entities, such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS), exploited local dynamics to take up a position within society in the Sunni areas of Iraq. It is important that the current fight against IS in Iraq avoids this pattern at all costs; if the liberation is devoid of long-term planning it will likely result in the resurfacing of a number of issues responsible for the rise of IS in Iraq in the first place. Lessons must be learnt from the mistakes of post-Saddam planning and these must not be repeated post-IS. There needs to be a multifaceted approach to the preparation for the liberation of Mosul that goes well beyond the military dimension.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East