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1. The Greek Tragedy: Narratives and Imagined Futures in the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

Author:
Jens Beckert and Hans Lukas Richard Arndt
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Between 2009 and 2015 Greece underwent a profound sovereign debt crisis that led to a serious political crisis in Europe and the restructuring of Greek debt. We argue that the prevalence of negative narratives about the future contributed to the changes in spreads of Greek bonds during the crisis. We support our argument by presenting results from text mining a corpus of 9,435 articles from the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal. Based on sentiments and a machine learning model predicting future reference, we identify newspaper articles which generate negative and uncertain outlooks for the future in the expert discourse. We provide evidence from time series regression analysis showing that these negative imagined futures have explanatory power in models estimating spread development of Greek vs. German sovereign bonds. We suggest that these findings provide good evidence for the relevance of “imagined futures” for investors’ behavior, and give directions for an innovative contribution of sociology to understanding the microfoundations of financial crises.
Topic:
Debt, Financial Crisis, Financial Markets, Future, Sovereign Debt, Economic Sociology, Sentiment Analysis, and Valuation
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

2. Dealing Government Bonds: Trading Infrastructures and Infrastructural Power in European Markets for Public Debt

Author:
Arjen van der Heide
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Confronted with increased difficulties to raise taxation, high inflation, and pressures to maintain social spending, many rich democracies have increasingly sought to raise funds in financial markets since the 1970s. Using the notion of “infrastructural power,” this paper examines the various ways in which states have become infrastructurally entangled with key actors in financial markets that provide the infrastructure of today’s markets for government bonds. Drawing on twenty-two interviews with debt managers and market participants, and documentary material, the article analyses the rise to prominence of MTS (Mercato dei Titoli di Stato), an electronic platform for trading government bonds that has become a key feature of Europe’s government bond market infrastructure. It traces the emergence of MTS in Italy, its rapid diffusion through Europe and its limited (or even non-existent) success in gaining market share in Germany and the UK. In so doing, this paper finds that some debt management units actively regulate their secondary bond markets to stimulate competition among dealer banks; they “orchestrate” the market for government bonds. Others take a more hands-off approach and only engage with secondary markets mostly as market participants by issuing debt instruments and perhaps buying and selling them in the secondary market. These differences are important for understanding the politics of sovereign debt: they reflect power relations, may impact states’ cost of borrowing and their capacity to withstand moments of fiscal stress.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Financial Markets, Banks, Public Debt, and Bonds
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Signaling Virtue or Vulnerability? The Changing Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Government Bond Yields

Author:
Z. Barta, Lucio Baccaro, and A. Johnston
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Do exchange rate regimes affect the conditions under which developed countries borrow? This paper argues that they do, but their impact on yields depends on the prevailing macroeconomic context. When investors regard inflation as the most relevant risk to bond holdings, monetary union has a distinct advantage over floating and fixed exchange rates because of its credible in-built mechanism to control inflation. However, once default is seen as the most relevant risk, exchange rate rigidity becomes a liability due to its constraining effect on governments’ ability to respond to adverse shocks. We test our argument with a moving window panel analysis for twenty-three OECD countries from 1980 to 2017. We find that before the late 2000s, inflation was penalized under floating and (to a lesser extent) fixed exchange rate regimes, but not in countries in monetary union. Since the 2010s, inflation carries no penalty under any exchange rate regime. Variables linked to default risk (debt and entitlement spending) did not affect yields under any exchange rate arrangements until the mid-2000s. Afterwards, countries in monetary union (and to a lesser extent in fixed exchange rate regimes) were significantly penalized for public debt and entitlement spending, whereas countries with floating regimes were not. Our results speak to the literatures on governments’ institutional commitments and “room to move.”
Topic:
Financial Markets, Bonds, Exchange Rates, and Euro
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. The Rise of the European Consolidation State

Author:
Wolfgang Streeck
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The rise of the consolidation state follows the displacement of the classical tax state, or Steuerstaat, by what I have called the debt state, a process that began in the 1980s in all rich capitalist democracies. Consolidation is the contemporary response to the “fiscal crisis of the state” envisaged as early as the late 1960s, when postwar growth had come to an end. Both the long-term increase in public debt and the current global attempts to bring it under control were intertwined with the “financialization” of advanced capitalism and its complex functions and dysfunctions. The ongoing shift towards a consolidation state involves a deep rebuilding of the political institutions of postwar democratic capitalism and its international order. This is the case in particular in Europe where consolidation coincides with an unprecedented increase in the scale of political rule under European Monetary Union and with the transformation of the latter into an asymmetric fiscal stabilization regime. The paper focuses on the developing structure of the new consolidation regime and its consequences for the relationship between capitalism and democracy.
Topic:
Debt, Monetary Policy, Democracy, Capitalism, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus