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1. Iraq’s Political Factions: The Last Chance to Build a Governing Coalition?

Author:
Barry R. Posen
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
President Bush is renewing his efforts to create an Iraq that can govern, sustain, and defend itself, and is throwing more resources at the project. The first priority must be governance, however, as administration and defense cannot happen without a functioning government. And government cannot function without a legitimate, broad-based, political consensus. Such a consensus has eluded Iraqis since March 2003, and the President’s new strategy includes no political program to create such a consensus. Instead, he counts on creating a coalition of existing “moderates,” which do not exist, as the intense violence within Iraq clearly demonstrates. Thus, the President’s troop increases, economic assistance, and intensified train- ing will likely prove futile.
Topic:
Imperialism, Democracy, State Building, and Iraq War
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and North America

2. Troop Levels in Stability Operations: What We Don’t Know

Author:
Peter Krause
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Troop levels in Iraq have been one of the most hotly contested issues om American foreign policy over the past three years, from debates over the initial deployment in 2003 to those surrounding the troop surge in 2007. The Bush administration has faced significant criticism for ignoring the conventional wisdom regarding the number of soldiers required to secure Iraq, and recent attempts to change course in this area are seen by some as too little, too late. Specifically, the Pentagon’s deployment of only 120,000 American troops for the invasion and the decision by Paul Bremer, U.S. Administrator in Iraq, to disband the Iraqi army and police has kept the ratio of security forces to Iraqi civilians well below the 20 per 1,000 seen as the basic ante required to play the high stakes stabilization game. Many supporters of higher troop levels blame these missteps for the emergence of the robust insurgency and the coalition’s failure to defeat it. But where exactly does the 20 per 1,000 figure come from, how strong is the evidence sup- porting it, and what steps are being taken to assess and improve the conventional wisdom in this area? While the answer to the first part of the question is relatively accessible, the latter are more difficult. They address a daunting problem, but unveil a disconnect between the objectives and methods of policy and social science.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Iraq War, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and North America

3. North Korea: Negotiations Work

Author:
Leon V. Sigal
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
In a laudable about-face, President Bush has decided at last to accept North Korea's longstanding offer to suspend production of plutonium by shutting down and sealing its reactor and reprocess- ing plant at Yongbyon, halting construction of a larger reactor and not restarting a newly refurbished fuel fabrication plant. In so doing, he is rejecting the counsel of American hardliners who have kept the United States from making and living up to earlier agreements while managing to convince much of America that it is North Korea that has been the one at fault. By negotiating in earnest, Bush has achieved an important goal for U.S. and Asian security.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

4. China’s Energy Governance: Perception and Reality

Author:
Edward A. Cunningham
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
As observers outside of China warn of a looming Chinese endgame in global energy assets, manipuated by Beijing, leading policymakers inside of China are facing considerable challenges governing major energy companies—especially those that the state owns. Chinese President Hu Jintao’s recent tour of African states and rumors of the first Chinese takeover of an overseas listed com- pany have attracted critical attention and spurred much discussion. Most analysis of China’s energy governance has placed the central government in the driver’s seat. The reality is that this perspective is grossly misleading.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Imperialism, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5. Sudan at the Crossroads

Author:
Francis M. Deng
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
There is a tendency in the outside world to see the tragedy in the Darfur region of the Sudan in isolation from the regional conflicts that have been proliferating in the country for a half cen- tury. These conflicts reflect an acute crisis of national identity that is both a cause of genocidal wars and a factor in the state’s indif- ference to the resulting humanitarian consequences. This explains the Sudanese government’s resistance to international provision of protection and assistance to the affected populations. The conflicts in the Sudan indicate a nation in painful search of itself, striving to be free from historical discrimination based on race, ethnicity, religion, and culture. It is, therefore, necessary to combine a suitable humanitarian response with solutions that go to the roots of the national identity crisis and address its stratifying implications.
Topic:
Nationalism, Humanitarian Intervention, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

6. Can Scientific Codes of Conduct Deter Bioweapons?

Author:
Jeanne Guillemin
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
At least since the First World War, when the German army sabotaged the Allies’ pack animals with anthrax and glanders, worldwide concern about biological weapons has focused on how to improve legal restraints against biological weapons (BW). Over these same years, the major powers have vacillated in their willing- ness to promote international treaties and laws against BW programs. At the end of the Cold War, hopes were high for a global consensus to strengthen the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), making it a standing organization comparable to that of the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention and an expanded man- date to ensure compliance. Instead, in the name of national security, the United States has recently promoted an emphasis on voluntary measures. One of these, the international adoption of biosecurity codes of conduct, puts the burden on elite scientists to solve a prob- lem of weapons proliferation that can be better addressed by effec- tive legal restraints.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Biological Weapons
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. China’s Premature Rise to Great Power

Author:
Liselotte Odgaard
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
China's so-called rise to great power status is usually taken for granted. Still, a convicning argument can be made that Beijing's post-Cold War grand strategy is based on fear of failure rather than management of success. China only qualifies as a great power by the skin of its teeth, if the lower limit of such status is defined as the ability to decide how to do things in either the economic, military or political sectors of the international system.1 China’s position as a political great power is largely determined by the implosion of the Soviet Union. Its ascendancy to this rank has been based on psychology in that a successor challenging U.S. pre-eminence was expected and pronounced before the fact. While Beijing has convinced the surroundings that China is a great power, it is struggling to catch up both economically and militarily with the United States. Contemporary China faces three major challenges: economically and militarily it con- tinues to lag far behind the United States, U.S. grand strategy threatens its rise, and a Chinese alternative to the liberal model of state-society relations has not been developed. Beijing’s foreign policy is therefore based on the premise of how to avoid China’s descent into the ranks of secondary powers.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Power Politics, Military Affairs, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

8. Paying for Homeland Security: Show Me the Money

Author:
Cindy Williams
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
In January 2003, the Bush administration drew 22 dis- parate agencies and some 170,000 employees into a new Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Proponents of the reorganization hoped a single department under a single cabi- net secretary would foster unity of effort across a substantial portion of the federal activities related to domestic security. A key tool would be the department’s budget. With all the agencies beholden to him for their money, the secretary could promote and reward much-needed integration across the department. He could wield the budget tool to expand high priority activities, eliminate or defer the less important or redundant ones, and reallocate the workforce to fill gaps in high-risk areas. A look at budgets since the department was established reflects little in the way of realignment, however. Department funding rose by more than 40 percent between 2003 and 2007, but there has been only minimal reallocation of bud- gets from areas of lower risk or priority to functions the department says are more important. With the exception of added spending to support the Secure Border Initiative announced by President Bush in November 2005, the depart- ment’s main operating components each enjoy about the same share of the DHS budget today as they did when the department was created.1 The result is that— despite the heavy cost in both dollars and institutional disruption—the United States is not getting what it should out of the reorganization.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Affairs, Budget, and Homeland Security
Political Geography:
United States

9. Turkey: Misperceptions and the Healing Touch of Democracy

Author:
Doğu Ergil
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Mass demonstrations in late April brought out hundreds of thousands of people in Ankara and perhaps a million people one week later in Istanbul, an awesome scene on both occasions. Demonstrations of lesser scale are underway in smaller cities like Canakkale and Manisa—a trend to continue until early elections scheduled for July 22. The demonstrations were comprised of mainly women and middle-class urban people who chanted their allegiance to secularism and a modern way of life, which they believed to be endangered by the religious leanings of the incumbent government. But is this a legitimate fear? The same government, led by the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi or AKP), has been in place since its electoral victory in 2002 and no substan- tial alteration took place in the basic tenets of the regime. Now, with the prospect of the election of the first Turkish president from this party, anxieties are high. The fear that such a danger is imminent has to be sociologically accounted for.
Topic:
Social Movement, Democracy, Protests, and Oppression
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

10. Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline: Is it a peace pipeline?

Author:
Abbas Maleki
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
A major natural gas pipeline that would stretch from the fields of southern Iran to Pakistan and India—itself a remarkable prospect—is being planned. But it faces serious hurdles, not least the fierce opposition of the U.S. government.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Gas
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, India, and Asia