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112. Building on Kyoto: towards a realistic global climate agreement
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin and Peter J. Wilcoxen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- As a mechanism for controlling climate change, the Kyoto Protocol has not been a success. Over the decade from its signing in 1997 to the beginning of its first commitment period in 2008, greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial countries subject to targets under the protocol did not fall as the protocol intended. Instead, emissions in many countries rose rapidly. It is now abundantly clear that as a group, the countries bound by the protocol have little chance of achieving their Kyoto targets by the end of the first commitment period in 2012. Moreover, emissions have increased substantially as well in countries such as China, which were not bound by the protocol but which will eventually have to be part of any serious climate change regime.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- China
113. China can grow and still help prevent the tragedy of the carbon dioxide commons
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, and Wing Thye Woo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence. The business-as-usual (BAU) growth path of the world might increase concentration of atmospheric to unsafe levels and cause significant negative environmental feedback before China achieves parity in living standards with the OECD countries. We use a dynamic multi-country general equilibrium model (the G-Cubed Model) to project a realistic BAU trajectory of CO2 emissions, and we find it to be even above the CO2 emissions from the high-growth scenario estimated by the Energy Information Agency in 2007. This outcome is a reminder that it has been usual so far to underestimate the growth in China energy consumption.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Environment, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
114. Beyond good governance
- Author:
- Jenny Hayward-Jones
- Publication Date:
- 09-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The Pacific Islands region is not on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, the internationally agreed targets for improving human development by 2015. The Melanesian countries, which have the largest population, face the most significant challenges in attempting to meet the goals. In the Port Moresby Declaration of 6 March 2008, the Australian government promised to work jointly with Pacific Island countries to meet the goals in the context of new Pacific Partnerships for Development. While the Millennium Development Goals may not be the fairest measurement of the success of inputs from the Australian aid program, they provide a valuable universal mechanism of measuring development outcomes.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Australia/Pacific
115. Looking after Australians overseas
- Author:
- Hugh White
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- What is the problem? As more and more Australians travel and live overseas, the Australian Government finds itself under increasing pressure to provide consular help and support, especially in emergencies. Providing these consular services is a traditional role for government representatives abroad, but both the scale and the nature of the demand have grown significantly in recent years. The demand from Australians for evacuation from South Lebanon during the conflict there last year demonstrated how far community expectations of the nature and scale of consular help have increased. This raises two problems. First, there is an issue of expectation management; community expectations are starting to run ahead of what can practicably be provided. Second, there is a problem of resources and priorities. While the consular workload has grown, the resources of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade have not, and the result has inevitably been a diversion of resources away from other diplomatic tasks. That is something Australia can ill afford.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Lebanon
116. Stopping a nuclear arms race between America and China
- Author:
- Hugh White
- Publication Date:
- 08-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Australia's interests in a peaceful and stable Asia-Pacific region are threatened by the risk of intensifying strategic nuclear competition between the US and China. This may seem a little surprising in the post-Cold War world. We have perhaps allowed ourselves to assume a little too easily that nuclear weapons ceased to matter much in relations between major powers after the Cold War was over. We have worried much more about the risk that they will be acquired by new players – rogue states or terrorists – who might not respond to the incentives and threats that shaped nuclear strategy between major powers during the Cold War.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Australia
117. Design faults: the Asia Pacific's regional architecture
- Author:
- Allan Gyngell
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- When the leaders from 21 Asia Pacific economies meet in Sydney for the APEC leaders' meeting in September, they will be elbowing for attention and relevance in an overcrowded field of regional organisations. Our problem is that there are too many regional forums, yet they still cannot do all the things we need.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Organization, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Australia/Pacific
118. Uranium for India: avoiding the pitfalls
- Author:
- Ron Walker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The prospect of Australia's selling uranium to India offers major potential benefits both for our exports and our foreign policy. There is however a conundrum as to how this could be done in a way that advances rather than damages Australia's interest in the global enterprise to resist the spread of nuclear weapons and in a rules-based international order.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
119. HIV/AIDS: The looming Asia Pacific pandemic
- Author:
- Bill Bowtell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The international effort to control the spread of the HIV pandemic is failing: new HIV caseloads are rising alarmingly in many parts of the Asia Pacific. For over 20 years we have known how to prevent the transmission of the HIV virus by persuading young people to make simple and sustainable changes in sexual practices and other risky behaviours. Yet despite the scientific evidence, many national governments are unable or unwilling to act in time to avert the problem.
- Topic:
- HIV/AIDS and Health
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Australia/Pacific
120. Reinventing 'West Asia': How the 'Middle east' and 'South Asia' Fit into Australia's Strategic Picture
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Australia's economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East and South Asia are growing and policymakers are gradually reassessing the place of these regions in Australia's overall strategic calculus. There is a risk, however, that in this reassessment, the two regions will continue to be viewed distinctly - a distinction that is increasingly artificial in strategic terms.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Asia, and Australia/Pacific