Publishing Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy / Topic: International Trade and Finance

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 12-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: For some observers, the announcement in late July of the indefinite suspension of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations signalled the beginning of the end for globalisation. The fear was that history would repeat itself; just as an earlier era of globalisation came to a bad end, so too could the current episode.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: On 24 July, the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations was suspended indefinitely, due to irreconcilable differences over the liberalisation of agricultural trade. While the suspension of negotiations may or may not turn out to mark the death of the Doha Round, it will almost certainly mark a watershed for the future of the international trading system. With even a 'good' outcome for the faltering trade round likely to deliver little in terms of new market access when set against the scale of negotiating resources devoted to Doha, the appetite of the world's trade ministers for any repeat performance will be limited. As a result, the era of giant, set piece trade rounds like Doha and its predecessor the Uruguay Round may well be over.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Africa

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 09-2006
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: In the past, there has been plenty of scepticism about India's economic prospects: for many, Charles De Gaulle's aphorism regarding Brazil, that it was a country with enormous potential, and always would be, seemed to apply equally well to the South Asian economy. While the 'tiger' economies of East Asia were enjoying economic take-off on the back of investment- and export-led growth, the lumbering Indian elephant seemed set to be a perpetual also-ran in the growth stakes. Yet following a series of reform efforts, first tentatively in the 1980s, and then with much more conviction in the 1990s, the Indian economic model has been transformed, and so too India's growth prospects. High profile successes in the new economy sectors of information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO), along with faster economic growth, triggered a widespread rethink regarding India's economic prospects, and a wave of foreign portfolio investment flowed into Indian markets. Perhaps India was set to be a tiger after all.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, East Asia, Asia, and Brazil

Author:: Warwick McKibbin, Park Yung Chul, and Jong-Wha Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalances since 1997 is changes in saving-investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the U.S fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 percent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific. lowy institute for international policy.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Israel and East Asia

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: On 8 February Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile concluded an agreed text for an Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement. This Issues Brief provides a preliminary assessment of the agreement, based on the limited information now available.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

Author:: Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:: 02-2004
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia. Using this theme as an organising principle, it reviews several major economic developments including US current account adjustment, international exchange rate adjustment in response to that process, growing Sino-US trade tensions, the increasing focus on international outsourcing and the stresses facing the current multilateral trading round. The Brief concludes by arguing that many of these same themes will influence international economic prospects over the coming year.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

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