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12. Global fiscal consolidation
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The build up in government debt in response to the 'great recession' has raised a number of policy dilemmas for individual countries as well as the world as a whole. Where the government fiscal stimulus was seen as necessary to restore confidence to markets and stimulate deteriorating economies in the aftermath of the 'great recession' by 2010 the massive fiscal stimulus programs and associated run-up in debt had, for many economies, become a confidence sapping exercise. This need for a change of fiscal policy stance has fuelled another debate that has two related aspects. One is the impact of fiscal consolidation on economies that are tightening and the flow-on effects to the world economy. The other debate is how much tightening there should be and how quickly.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Australia/Pacific
13. China in the Pacific: the new banker in town
- Author:
- Fergus Hanson and Mary Fifita
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- What is the problem? China is now one of the Pacific\'s major donors. An analysis of its aid program in the region from 2005 to 2009 suggests it is reducing the grant component of its aid and increasing the soft loan proportion. China has pledged over $US 600 million to the Pacific since 2005 and debt burdening will become increasingly pressing as Chinese loans accumulate and the five-year grace periods expire. There appears to have been limited progress improving transparency.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
14. Fiji: the flailing state
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Fiji's President Ratu Josefa Iloilovatu Uluivuda announced on 10 April 2009 that he had abrogated Fiji's 1997 constitution, appointed himself head of state, revoked the appointment of all judicial officers and would direct an interim government to hold parliamentary elections by September 2014. The President's announcement followed a Court of Appeal judgement on 9 April which ruled that Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama's December 2006 coup was illegal and directed the President to appoint an independent third person to lead an interim government and call for fresh elections under the 1997 constitution. On 11 April, President Iloilo reappointed Bainimarama as interim Prime Minister, who subsequently imposed strict censorship on the media, deported Australian journalist Sean Dorney, arrested a number of opponents and removed the Reserve Bank Governor, Savenaca Narube.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Australia/Pacific
15. The economic and environmental effects of border tax adjustments for climate change policy
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin and Peter J. Wilcoxen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- For the foreseeable future, climate change policy will be considerably more stringent in some countries than in others. Indeed, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change explicitly states that developed countries must take meaningful action before any obligations are to be placed on developing countries. However, differences in climate policy will lead to differences in energy costs, and to concerns about competitive advantage. In high-cost countries, there will be political pressure to impose border adjustments, or “green tariffs”, on imports from countries with little or no climate policy and low energy costs. The adjustments would be based on the carbon emissions associated with production of each imported product, and would be intended to match the cost increase that would have occurred had the exporting country adopted a climate policy similar to that of the importing country. In this paper, we estimate how large such tariffs would be in practice, and then examine their economic and environmental effects using G-Cubed, a detailed multi-sector, multi-country model of the world economy. We find that the tariffs would be small on most traded goods, would reduce leakage of emissions reduction very modestly, and would do little to protect import-competing industries. We conclude that the benefits produced by border adjustments would be too small to justify their administrative complexity or their deleterious effects on international trade.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Environment, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and United Nations
16. Refining the G-20 agenda
- Author:
- Stephen Grenville
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- What began as the sub-prime crisis in America is now universally recognised as a Global Financial Crisis (GFC). While the consequences are clearly global, however, the required policy responses may be largely domestic, as indeed they have been so far. Nevertheless, financial markets are looking to the forthcoming G-20 Leaders' London meeting in April, in the hope that it will produce confidence-boosting measures. Realistically, what can be done at the international level? The central issue to be explored here is the extent to which an international response is relevant to the GFC, in the form of policy coordination or cooperation in rule-setting of the kind that could be orchestrated by the G-20 Leaders.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- America and London
17. Mass poverty in Asia and the GFC
- Author:
- Peter McCawley
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- What is the problem? In addition to the current Global Financial Crisis (GFC), there is a second global crisis: long-term mass poverty in the third world. While the rich world worries about a repeat of the Great Depression, today more than a billion people in Asia live in conditions of bitter poverty which are much worse than those of the 1930s. As a result of the GFC, poverty in developing Asia is now likely to increase.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Poverty, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia
18. Australia's poisoned alumni: international education and the costs to Australia
- Author:
- Michael Wesley
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- What is the problem? International education is Australia's third-largest export market, earning over $15 billion in export income annually. But as tertiary institutions face incentives to maximise income from foreign students, some have lowered language standards and cut costs on student welfare and service provision.
- Topic:
- Crime, Economics, Education, Globalization, and Migration
- Political Geography:
- Australia/Pacific
19. Message to the G20: Defeating protectionism begins at home
- Author:
- Mark P Thirlwell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- What is the problem ? On 16 November 2008, G20 leaders made a commitment to resist protectionism. When they meet in Pittsburgh, on 24 September 2009, they will have an opportunity to review that commitment and to decide how best to act on it. The advice they have received to date focuses on international monitoring and short-term responses to the global economic crisis. These measures do little to deal with the underlying causes of protectionism.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
20. External imbalances and the G20
- Author:
- Stephen Grenville
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- International external imbalances have been blamed for playing a central role in the Global Financial Crisis. China's large external surplus usually figures prominently in these explanations. While a more balanced account of the causes of the crisis would give only a modest role to external imbalances there seems little doubt that some adjustment of these imbalances over the next few years is both inevitable and desirable, not because external imbalances in themselves are inherently undesirable, but because some of the specific components of today's current balances are unsustainable. Markets could bring about these necessary adjustments over time. History, however, tells us that market-driven adjustments are often accompanied by exchange-rate overshooting and trade- threatening protectionist responses.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China
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