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1. Ocean of Debt? Belt and Road and Debt Diplomacy in the Pacific

Author:
Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant, and Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China has not been engaged in debt trap diplomacy — at least not yet. China has not been the primary driver behind rising debt risks in the Pacific, although a continuation of business as usual would risk future debt problems in several countries. There is scope for a new Australian infrastructure financing facility to provide loans to the Pacific without causing debt problems, particularly as it has adopted key sustainable lending rules. Pacific nations have an opportunity to obtain more favourable financing from official development partners but care must be taken to avoid overly geopolitical aid.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

2. Internal Security in Papua New Guinea: Trends and Prospects

Author:
Sinclair Dinnen
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Concerns about personal security have been prominent in Papua New Guinea for many years. Personal security figures regularly in travel advisories issued by foreign governments. International news coverage of Papua New Guinea is often about violence or crime, reinforcing the country's reputation as a dangerous and lawless place. A visitor to Port Moresby, the sprawling national capital, sees evidence of this in the elaborate security arrangements that shape the urban landscape. Drivers of insecurity in this young nation are complex and multidimensional, stemming from the legacies of a recent colonial past, along with the ongoing challenges of state consolidation and the uneven effects of economic globalisation. The main security threats are non-traditional, including urban crime, gender-based violence, corruption, arms trafficking, border protection, resource poaching, climate change, natural disasters, and transnational crime. Although some view China's growing presence as a potential threat, its activities in Papua New Guinea have been largely confined to diplomacy, development assistance and investment. Prime Minister Peter O'Neill has acknowledged the absence of any "distinct conventional external threat", while PNG's National Security Policy recognises the developmental and political character of the country's security challenges.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Development, Natural Resources, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

3. Infrastructure Challenges for Papua New Guinea

Author:
Craig Lawrence
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Climate, topography, population, culture, economics, and finance all conspire to raise significant barriers to providing economic and social infrastructure critical to Papua New Guinea's future development. Compared to developed economies, the physical stock of infrastructure assets in Papua New Guinea is insufficient to deliver the economic and social services needed to drive faster economic growth and improve human development. It faces significant choices as a result that may also be influenced by the public infrastructure requirements of foreign direct investment in export oriented extractive resource sectors. A lack of effective national infrastructure planning and funding constrain PNG's economy and its ability to improve the lives of its citizens through provision of these infrastructure services. This paper briefly reviews several key infrastructure sectors - telecommunications, transport, energy, and urban water - to provide snapshots of their status, identify challenges, and where possible make relevant international comparisons. It also looks at ways to improve the delivery of relevant economic infrastructure: (i) effective planning and prioritisation; (ii) funding strategies for infrastructure investment; (iii) funding of ongoing infrastructure operations; and (iv) consideration of infrastructure life cycle issues. In addition, in the future effective economic regulation of PNG commercialised infrastructure services will help ensure that consumers benefit from these services. The Independent Consumer and Competition Commission will therefore have an increasingly important role to play.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

4. Future Scenarios for Papua New Guinea

Author:
Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Until recently, visitors making their way to the immigration checkpoint at Jacksons International Airport in Port Moresby were greeted with a sign exclaiming, "Welcome to Papua New Guinea: The land of the unexpected". In a nation that is so self-aware of its unpredictability, forecasting future scenarios is like staring into a crystal ball. Quality data is scarce and incomplete, trends are difficult to establish and validate, and prognostications on PNG's future are often dogmatic and politicised. Over the past 42 years Papua New Guinea has defied many of the most negative projections for its future, and navigated a huge number of 'crossroad' situations. Even before 1975, some were arguing that independence would be an unmitigated disaster, and the risk of Papua New Guinea becoming a failed state is a question that has permeated its short history. It is a question that is now being asked more frequently. On one view, Papua New Guinea has managed to "muddle through", largely on the strength of its peoples' resilience in the face of adversity. However, this resilience may be dwindling, and rather than "muddling through", Papua New Guinea may instead be on a "muddling down" trajectory. Its politicians, on the other hand, claim that the country's prospects have never been better. In a nation with so many development challenges and such porous data, it is difficult to identify future scenarios, let alone determine which is most likely. How does one define a failed state in Papua New Guinea, where most of the nation is not dependent on a properly functioning state? Without accurate data, how can one track trends in human development over decades? Should the focus be placed on the country as a whole, or on urban areas, on rural areas, or areas critical for economic development? How can new technological advancements be appropriately accounted for? Drawing on the papers in this series, five variables from each of the sectors addressed in the papers have been identified as critical influences on PNG's development over the next ten years and beyond. From these variables, three potential scenarios emerge, with the most likely scenario that Papua New Guinea will continue to 'muddle through' as it has in the past, failing to meet many expectations of development but defying the country's many detractors, and avoiding state failure.
Topic:
Security, Development, Politics, and State
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

5. A Bumpy Road: Societal Trends in Papua New Guinea

Author:
Jonathan Pryke and Paul Barker
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On many indicators, Papua New Guinea's rapid population growth is outpacing development progress. Service delivery across the country is in decline. Growing urbanisation is increasing the burden on service providers as people who move from rural areas generally lose access to their customary land and become less self-sufficient. More than 40 per cent of the population is under the age of 14. The resulting youth bulge is outstripping very limited formal sector employment opportunities. The needs of the private sector are evolving, and skills development is critical. New immigrant groups are moving in to Papua New Guinea and taking over small and medium businesses that have typically been run by locals, adding further societal and employment pressures. This paper will chart these trends in Papua New Guinea, and the impact they will have on political stability, policymaking and development. It will look at trends in service delivery, employment, and skills development. It will look at the role of new immigrants in Papua New Guinea and future workforce capacity, and assess the government's capacity to deal with these challenges.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Immigration, Urbanization, and Youth
Political Geography:
AustralAsia and Papua New Guinea

6. Melanesia New Voices: Investing in the Next Generation

Author:
Jenny Hayward-Jones
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Melanesian countries need to better cater for their growing young populations, including through establishing youth centres and targeted programs. Prosperity and peace is achieved through embracing the dignity of Melanesian identity, which includes respecting the New Caledonian decolonisation process and acknowledging West Papuan aspirations for human rights and self-determination. Melanesian countries are making good use of technological innovation, but infrastructure gaps and limited access to finance constrain the development of innovative small businesses.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Human Rights, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific

7. Papua New Guinea in 2015: at a crossroads and beyond

Author:
Jenny Hayward- Jones
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
2015 is a significant year for Papua New Guinea. The country will mark 40 years of independence from Australia, host the Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting and the Pacific Games. The Papua New Guinea economy will record the highest GDP growth rate in the world in 2015 but will also formally fail to meet any of the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals in their deadline year. The Papua New Guinea government has introduced tuition fee free education and free healthcare but faces major challenges in improving the living standards of its population of over seven million people. The resources boom has helped drive investment in infrastructure but catering for the nation’s growing youth bulge is proving a particularly difficult policy problem. Changes to the way different levels of government are being administered could improve service delivery in rural areas but have the potential to undermine national development planning. The next generation of leaders will face an even more complex set of challenges.
Topic:
Development, Education, Health Care Policy, and Economies
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific and Papua New Guinea

8. Playbook for the Brisbane G20 summit

Author:
Mike Callaghan
Publication Date:
10-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
It is important that the Brisbane G20 Leaders' Summit be a success. It must help 'reenergise' the G20, because the world needs an effective G20. But there is more at stake for Australia. If the G20 is not effective, any alternative forum for international economic cooperation would likely exclude Australia.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Australia

9. The evolving post-crisis world

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The worst of the global financial crisis (GFC) is over, but it has left scars, principally in the form of fiscallydriven debt increases, balance sheets that still need repair and high unemployment in the principal crisis countries. There is also unfinished business from the precrisis period, in the form of external imbalances. More positively, the crisis offers lessons about economic policymaking that may improve the way things are done. Of course the main lessons are for the developed countries that were at the centre of the crisis. But the countries of the region had to cope with the backwash, and in doing so lessons were learned. In addition, the lessons in the crisis countries, learned in an environment of extreme stress, may have relevance for the emerging market economies of this region.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

10. Fiji: the flailing state

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Fiji's President Ratu Josefa Iloilovatu Uluivuda announced on 10 April 2009 that he had abrogated Fiji's 1997 constitution, appointed himself head of state, revoked the appointment of all judicial officers and would direct an interim government to hold parliamentary elections by September 2014. The President's announcement followed a Court of Appeal judgement on 9 April which ruled that Commodore Voreqe Bainimarama's December 2006 coup was illegal and directed the President to appoint an independent third person to lead an interim government and call for fresh elections under the 1997 constitution. On 11 April, President Iloilo reappointed Bainimarama as interim Prime Minister, who subsequently imposed strict censorship on the media, deported Australian journalist Sean Dorney, arrested a number of opponents and removed the Reserve Bank Governor, Savenaca Narube.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific